Thursday, July 6, 2023

Tuesday was the hottest day in 125,000 years

It’s been seven weeks since I last looked at Michigan’s COVID data. And, good news! Since the beginning of May the number of new cases per day has been steadily decreasing. The last few peaks have been 279, 227, 241, 156, 189, 126, and 117 last week. Compared to the numbers I had been reporting these are small. Since last week’s peak new cases per day has been less than 100. For seven weeks the number of deaths per day has been in the single digits. I’ve downloaded Michigan’s data 136 times over three years. The data now shows that I can stop. On Wednesday Mark Sumner of Daily Kos reported that Tuesday was the hottest day in recorded history at a world average of 17.18C (62.92F). Since this is a world average and half the world is in mid winter and the average includes Greenland and Antarctica, this is toasty. This breaks a record that goes all the way back to – Monday. That day’s average was 17.01C. The previous record was set back in August 2016 at 16.92C. This is early July and August tends to be hotter. I think I read that we’ve been recording temperatures around the globe for only 44 years. However, we’ve been keeping temperature data in some places since the 18th century and data from tree rings, ice cores, and isotopes in shells of ocean creatures extends our temperature understanding back 125,000 years. So, yeah, Tuesday was the hottest day in 125,000 years. Sumner has various charts to explain why Tuesday’s record won’t stand for long. Temperatures will still go up. But we’re not doomed. Back in 2000 New Mexico got all of its electricity from burning fossil fuels. Now it is 34%. The state now has a permanent Office of Renewable Energy. They’re ahead of schedule to have 100% of the state’s power needs come from renewables by 2045. In their 2023 legislative session they needed only eight days for their latest bill to push into a renewable future. It passed along party lines. Vote for Democrats. Today an Associated Press article posted on Kos reported that Wednesday’s global average temperature matched Tuesday’s record. A contributor to the record is the mild winter in Antarctica. It’s been 10-20C (18-36F) warmer than the 1979-2000 average. This threatens the regions wildlife and is driving ice melt that raises sea level. Another AP story reported Ohioans United for Reproductive Rights have been collecting signatures to put an abortion rights amendment to the Ohio constitution on the November ballot. They need 413.4K signatures. Today they turned in over 700K. The proposed amendment is similar to the one approved in neighboring Michigan last year. The number of signatures gathered and the number needed to be gathered were similar to what happened in Michigan. There is one big hurdle ahead. There is an amendment on the August ballot (I think the only thing on the ballot) that would raise the vote threshold for amendments from 50% to 60%. Abortion rights amendments in other states have passed with over 55% of the vote, but under 60%. Yes, this Ohio special election is intentionally at a time when most people don’t bother to vote. RO37 of the Kos community posted a Ukraine update. In with all the technical stuff is a description of how mine clearing works. It is difficult and careful work – a crew doesn’t want to miss one that might explode later – and involves what are known as mine plows. A big reason why this is slow work is because the minefields Russia laid down tend to be a few kilometers front to back and clearing needs to be done 8-10 kilometers side to side so following vehicles aren’t clumped together as easy targets. Sumner reported that the usual 3:1 offensive rule doesn’t apply in Ukraine’s attack. The 3:1 rule means an army attacking a well fortified position needs three times the personnel and equipment than the defenders. Ukraine doesn’t have that and is still making progress. Sumner explains that 3:1 ratio is important so that the attackers can withstand losses and not lose unit cohesion. But the defender’s losses can also lead to the loss of unit cohesion and that appears to be one of Russia’s problems. There’s a big reasons why the 3:1 ratio doesn’t apply: It’s has to do wit that bit about a well fortified position. Russia has repeatedly not stayed in its trenches and bunkers, but instead has come out in the open to engage Ukraine fighters. So Ukraine is making progress. Some Independence Day cartoons posted by Denise Oliver Velez in the comments of a pundit roundup on Kos: Andrew Fraser drew a cartoon of the Founding Fathers. One leans over his computer and looks back at his colleagues and says, “If I post this on King George’s wall, you’re all going to like it, right?” David Horsy of the Seattle Times drew one of two people tugging on opposite corners of an American flag and both saying, “Mine!” Dave Whamond drew a cartoon of the Supreme Court Library. Roberts says, “Has anyone seen our book on judicial ethics?” Alito, standing next to Thomas, says, “I think we banned that one along with the ones about honor, integrity, prestige, and legitimacy.” Hunter of Kos discussed the latest in flying cars, the thing that we’ve been hoping for of as one of the great things to come in the future, but hasn’t actually arrived in the last 100 years. Alef, a company owned by Elon Musk, has announced their Model A has received its Special Airworthiness Certification. And maybe you can buy one for $300K in 2025. Hunter says it is all a really bad idea. First, this is more of a flying golf cart. It’s not a car because cars have lots of mandated safety features. Hmm... I recall that just recently a submersible company ran into trouble when it skimped on safety. Personal flying vehicles haven’t appears because, as Hunter wrote, “after a hundred years of dreaming about flying cars nobody has ever, ever been able to explain why a future of individually piloted hovercars would in any way work out.” If one is stuck in traffic and could get out of a traffic jam by levitating, why would one not fly everywhere? The drawbacks are the noise (the sound of eight lawnmowers?), the road debris kicked up at takeoff, the power lines one forgot to check for, and everyone else trying to fly at the same time. Commenters add given how good people are at keeping their cars maintained, they’re not going to be any better at maintaining flying golf carts. And when it stalls out one drops from the sky in a crash. And hitting cars or houses below.

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