The best outcome for gays could be explosive

The Calif. Supremes will be making their ruling on the gay marriage ban amendment official tomorrow (Tues, May 26 -- I know what I'll be writing about). There are 3 possible rulings:

* The ban is repealed as being an improper amendment.
* The ban is maintained and the 18,000 existing gay marriages are allowed to stand.
* The ban is maintained and 18,000 gay couples find their marriage status disappears.

So far the court has given no indication on how they will rule, though a cottage industry has been flourishing since oral arguments last March trying to read the tea leaves.

From the gay side there are 90 Day of Decision events planned across the country (one in East Lansing) ready to either party (1st case above) or protest (outcomes 2 and 3). If we're not in a partying mood, once the protest ends we get back to work to get the question back on the ballot in 2010 (and 2012, and …) as necessary until we win. Time and demographics are on our side. We're also getting good at that patience thing.

I wrote earlier this month about the militant right, how they're spoiling for a fight and any excuse could be a catalyst for a disaster.

Overturning the ban (outcome 1) could be that trigger.

* The right have already lost 5 states (soon 6), but they are puny. California with gay marriage is game-over.

* Calif. is the biggest possible example of godless liberals pushing their immoral values down everyone else's throats. These godless liberals have already taken over the national government.

* The ban was decided by a free and fair election (though mighty expensive and filled with lies) and "liberal activist judges" overturning such a vote could push them from seething to explosive. Note that the definition of "liberal activist judges" are judges that overturn attempts at imposing a theocracy, even if they were appointed by conservative governors.

* That marriage ban was a tiny bright spot in last year's election catastrophe. Extinguishing that last ray of hope that there's a teeny bit of sanity even in a blue state (and do it through judges) could drive them bonkers.

Those ideas in combination push every hot button in these groups, and push them hard. They believe they are the last line of defense against complete moral chaos.

Here's why it can be dangerous and disastrous. These groups are spread across middle America. They won't be able, due to distance and security, to attack the Calif. justices who made this ruling. They can attack every gay-owned business in their own neighborhood in Arkansas. They are making a last heroic stand for a lost cause and intend to go down fighting. They are well enough armed and connected that it could cause a civil war supported by about 10% of the country.

This little scenario condenses it quite well:

But imagine you're a conservative living in, say, Arkansas. Imagine your working-class church raised a couple thousand dollars to promote Prop 8, and invested a lot of emotional energy in passing it, and celebrated it as a major moral victory when it succeeded. Imagine your preacher telling you that this is the Last Stand, because if California goes, the war is over and you've lost and God is going to smite America because you failed to stop Satan in time. And then imagine how you feel -- and what you might do -- when a bunch of liberal judges snatch that huge cultural victory right out of your hands.

The best outcome for gays could be a new source of danger from the right.