Thursday, September 29, 2011

This is the infrastructure to update

Jeremy Rifkin has written a new book on energy and the environment titled The Third Industrial Revolution. I caught him on the Diane Rehm show where he talked about the major points. I rarely listen to a show, but the car radio came on and the first words were about environment and energy. So I kept listening.

The first industrial revolution in the 19th Century was built on coal and steam. The second was built on oil and facilitated by the telephone, computer, and mass communication.

The problem is we're reaching limits of growth on oil. There has been much discussion of "peak oil" which means after a particular time the amount of oil extracted from the ground diminishes, meaning we slowly run out. Some people feel we should be hitting peak oil any day now (and others dismiss this idea).

But oil per capita reached a peak back in 1979. Oil production has increased, but population has grown faster. Oil consumption and oil prices are to the point where they can choke economic development.

But in the same way that one steam turbine used to drive all the machines in a plant (Greenfield Village has examples) became tools each with its own motor, and in the same way that we've moved from giant central computers to a PC on each desk and smartphones in pockets, we will move to distributive energy production. In the last 2 years Europe has made big strides in this area.

This is the Third Industrial Revolution. It is built on 5 pillars.

1. The EU has mandated 20% renewable energy for each country by 2020. Germany has already reached it. Giant wind farms are great but…

2. Renewable energy, in some form, is available almost everywhere man lives. Buildings are the big cause of climate change. Pair them up. Every building should have its own way to tap the sun on its roof and the breezes that blow past, even the heat in the ground. Installation is paid for through partnerships with energy companies. A small tax on all bills to get early adopters going. The extra energy they create is sold back to the grid. Since the owner pays a lower bill the energy company knows the owner is good for a loan with payments smaller than the monetary savings. The labor force to do all this conversion is a boost to the economy.

3. The sun doesn't always shine, the wind doesn't always blow. A way to store the energy is needed. It appears the most efficient way to do this is use electricity to separate water into oxygen and hydrogen, then generate electricity by recombining the two (go ask a physics major for details).

4. Use smart appliances connected to a smart grid to monitor and adjust the amount and timing of energy use.

5. Plug-in cars. They should be mass-marketed by 2014. We'll need places to plug them in.

When some people talk of our infrastructure needing updates, this is what they're talking about. Yeah, we need roads repaved and bridges rebuilt. But a green energy infrastructure is more important.

Rifkin says that nuclear energy is about over. Most reactors are old. We can't replace them -- and build enough more to make a difference -- fast enough. Second problem is that we've never figured out how to deal with the waste. Third, we don't have enough water to cool that many reactors without causing environmental damage.

Existing energy companies have a lot of lobbying power. But those can be matched by the power of a combination of green energy companies, construction companies, and information companies (for the smart grid) plus a few more. Existing energy companies change to manage the electrical grid and then teach companies how to be more energy efficient.

Obama wants a green energy economy. However, he hasn't yet put together a coherent, unified plan to get us there. Developing countries might leapfrog us. Many never took part in the first and second industrial revolutions and don't have powerbrokers from those legacy systems to slow them down as they jump into the third revolution.

There are powerful people against all this. What do we do? Start city by city, state by state. Explain why it is important.

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