It doesn't take long for a country to collapse

I'm still annoyed at Niall Ferguson for his poorly reasoned article in Newsweek last week trumpeting how the rich are raising money for one charter school. Newsweek did print a rebuttal letter, which noted that charter schools aren't unionized, so the reason the rich are supporting this school is because it helps their union-busting efforts.

But Ferguson's latest article appears to be more thoroughly researched. One would hope so, because the article is a condensation of his latest book.

Many people have predicted that the West, or at least America, is facing a long, slow decline. Ferguson says history doesn't support that theory. Civilizations and powerful countries don't decline, they collapse and do so in about 10, maybe 20 years. The reason for the collapse is always the same: the complex social systems supporting the society stop working. One minute the rulers are seen as legitimate, the next minute they aren't. Who knew last December the head of Tunisia would be gone in a couple months?

Since 1500 (shortly after the Renaissance began to spread across Europe) Western Civilization has developed several key ideas that made it significantly richer than the rest of the world. These ideas are:

* Competition. Europe was fragmented into small territories, each competing with those around it. It is that competition that has made modern Western corporations great.

* Scientific Revolution. All the major 17th century breakthroughs happened in the West.

* Rule of Law and Representative Government. Yeah, it was at first limited to property owners, but it is better than other forms of government.

* Modern Medicine. All big improvements in health care came from the West.

* The Consumer Society.

* The Work Ethic, combined with saving, allowed sustained capital accumulation.

Two things have been happening over the last half century. First, other countries, first Japan and notably China, have started applying these ideas to their own cultures. That's not bad. However… Second, the West has been ignoring what made it great.

* Work Ethic? The students who work the hardest are Asian or Asian-American.

* Consumer Society? 26 of the 30 biggest shopping malls are not in the West.

* Medicine? America now has the most expensive. But other countries have better improvement in life expectancy.

* Rule of Law? We're only good at investor protection (take a moment to think about who is being protected). We're terrible in the ethics of politicians, cost imposed on business by organized crime, bribery, standards of auditing, and 11 other categories.

* Science? Lots of studies show how our students rank low in science compared to places like China.

* Competition? We're becoming less so, and social mobility is dropping.

Yes, it is possible to rebuild these ideas. Break up anticompetitive monopolies. Stop deflecting students from science. Stop lobbyists from subverting the rule of law. Fix health care (starting with the way health care is funded). Start saving. Get people back into jobs before they learn an unemployment ethic.

But if we don't start now, collapse may come within one election cycle.