Milestone

Happy Birthday dear blog!
Happy Birthday dear blog!
Happy Birthday, Happy Birthday!
Happy Birthday dear blog!

Yup, I started blogging five years ago today. In that time I've written more than 1900 posts. On top of that this blog is an extension of the emails I had been sending out to family and friends for four years before I started posting my news notices and musings here.



Nate Silver and his accurate forecasting is replacing pundits pontificating about what their gut feeling is telling them about who will win the election. For me, that's a very good thing -- listening to someone's gut opinion was a waste of time and down at the bottom of things I wanted to know about the candidates. Andrew Romano in Newsweek considers what those pundits might do instead.

First possible topic of conversation is who should win the election. That means an analysis of the candidate's positions and whether this might help or hinder the country. Second possible topic is how is the candidate going about getting elected. The big news this year was the amount the campaigns (especially Obama's) did data mining to finely tune the message aimed at individual voters. Both of these topics would be a lot more interesting and useful for the country than gut feelings about who the victor might be.



David Frum, conservative columnist in Newsweek, discusses how much the GOP is stuck in the past: "Your answers are so old I've forgotten the questions." He then lists all the ways the country and world has changed since 1980, when conservative hero Ronald Reagan was elected. In 1980, USA and allies produced half the world's output. We were threatened by a great military adversary. The gap between rich and poor was at its narrowest for the entire 20th Century. Watergate era laws meant campaigns were publicly financed. The middle class saw economic progress as the norm. The country was overwhelmingly white. Young women were just entering the workforce (rather than young men exiting). Marriage for straights was the norm and for gays unimaginable. The top environmental concern was risk to individuals. 79% of Americans under 65 were covered by employer-provided health insurance.

There was a time when the Dems were stuck doing the same old thing. They needed a solid loss to get some fresh thinking. The recent Dem victory will hopefully jolt the GOP out of their rut to be a responsible voice for conservatism.



As the fiscal bluff battle began Obama said the country elected him because he promoted higher taxes on the rich. John Boehner responded by saying yeah, but they also elected a solid GOP majority in the House. Mother Jones has one word: gerrymandering.

The total vote for all House Dem candidates was 49% and 48.2% for GOP candidates. Yet the new House has the second biggest GOP majority in 60 years (I gather the biggest majority is for the Congress just ending). The GOP sweep in 2010 meant the redistricting in many states was done by the GOP. For example, in Michigan Dem. House candidates drew more votes than their GOP counterparts, yet Dems get 5 of the state's House seats and the GOP get 9. Which means we may have to get used to a GOP House until 2020. Sigh.

I don't remember where I read this next bit: John Boehner is hopefully aware that his party lost the popular vote, even though they hold more seats. That should strengthen Obama's hand in fiscal bluff and other negotiations.



Paul Waldman in an article for Salon and The American Prospect looks at the GOP's overblown response to the deaths of diplomats in Benghazi. Why is the GOP in such a tizzy? Because Obama, who they consider illegitimate, managed to go four whole years without a scandal. Nothing to impeach him on.



I mentioned the many secessionist petitions floating out there with lots of people signing on. I think the Texas petition notes the state has a huge economy and has balanced its books. Krysten Clark of Jack and Jill Politics notes the balanced budget was because Texas took more help from the federal gov't than it sent to the feds in taxes. And the 47% freeloaders? They mostly live in Red states. Yeah, they're free to sign petitions when their guy loses. But we're free to laugh at them.