It has to be done one step at a time

Yeah, time is short in dealing with climate change, but we've built our economy around carbon for so long (2500 years?) that change will not come quickly. One conference (Copenhagen) or even one disaster doesn't change ideas that are so deep. Humans change only so fast and in predictable ways. The whole way we deal with energy could take a couple centuries. Here is a list of the steps through which change tends to happen.

* A small group realizes there is a problem and studies exactly what the problem is. Scientists began noticing the global warming problem over a century ago.

* The battle for hearts and minds -- getting the rest of society to see the problem, admit it's severity, and agree something needs to be done. This is the hardest step and is nearly over.

* See of tweaks can fix the system. In climate change this is where we are now. It is a necessary step and is not irrational because in the vast majority of situations requiring change a tweak will fix it. Also, risk adverse people that we are must see if the job can be done with tweaks. Those that know tweaks aren't enough must be patient because this step can't be rushed. Jump to far ahead and you lose credibility because people resent you. There is usually a generational dynamic at work with older people invested in the status-quo and youngsters convinced the old system is unworkable.

* A tipping point arrives proving that tweaks can't be enough and a thorough overhaul must be done. If the earlier stages were done right enough (at least 70%) of the population is with you, ready to drop resistance and move to something revolutionary.

* The change happens, usually not in the way anticipated. Some outcomes are worse, others much better.

* The wrap-up. The new system needs it's own tweaks and most people believe things are better now than they would have been without the change.

It seems like "incrementalism" but change for humans only happens this way. A true leader understands this system and can guide the population through each step.

So Copenhagen isn't all-or-nothing. Events like this will probably become more frequent as the tweaks proposed this time are proven to be insufficient.