The riskiest places

Dr. Erin Bromage is a professor of Biology at the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth. In his own blog he wrote an essay about keeping yourself safe from the coronavirus. Thank you to my friend and debate partner for sending me the link. Here’s some of what he wrote about:

The deaths from the virus follow a predictable shape – the daily death count rises, then declines slowly. If there were 70,000 (now 82,000) on the upslope, there are likely as many on the downslope.

If the lockdown is maintained.

New York is on the downslope (and it looks like Michigan is too). But America as a whole is still on the upslope.

It takes about 1,000 viruses to infect someone. A cough or sneeze can release 200,000,000 viruses into the environment and the force of the sneeze can shoot them across the room where they float in moisture droplets for a while. Breathing out can release perhaps 20 viruses a minute.

If you’re in a room when an infected person sneezes you can easily get one dose right there. If you’re in a room near them breathing it could take 50 minutes before being infected.

A mask will cut down the risk, both preventing the virus escaping into the room and preventing you from breathing a lot of it in.

The riskiest places are those that are enclosed, with poor air circulation, and with a high density of people. Examples: meat packing plants, parties such as weddings and funerals, face-to-face business networking, public transport, offices with people crowded in one large open room, …

and restaurants.

However, grocery stores tend to be much larger spaces, the number of people is restricted, and the customer is usually there for only a short period (it’s another matter for workers there all day).

Generally, the bigger the space and the fewer and more spread out the people the safer it is. The best place (other than your own home by yourself) is outside. That jogger passing you, even if releasing viruses, won’t be a risk. However, outside in a crowd is still a risk.



Jim Roberts tweeted that in a luxury restaurant is embracing social distancing. Half of the tables will have mannequins dressed in 1940s attire.

Cool? Or creepy?

Jordan Weissmann’s opinion: “This is going to feel like a horror movie.”

Robert Frick says just wait until Disney animates them.