Friday, May 14, 2021

It shifts the responsibility to the very individuals who can cause the most harm

Yesterday the CDC said those fully vaccinated no longer have to wear masks except on public transport. A lot of reaction does not agree. Shay Stewart Bouley tweeted:
The CDC telling the vaccinated it's safe to be unmasked indoors feels like the focus is on saving capitalism. Get us unmasked, open it all up, help the economy. Get the workers back in their place.
And Leah McElrath replied:
Yep. And those who are already safe will remain safe while the disabled and economically vulnerable become speed bumps under the bus.
Fox Woadhill Rogers added:
Except, that's unlikely. We will spread the more deadly mutations already out there or make new ones. Safe is not a term I would venture to use for any of us at this point.
In a longer thread McElrath elaborated:
Mark my words: This is going to be interpreted and communicated without the qualifying initial phrase, “IF you are fully vaccinated.” And only 35% of Americans are fully vaccinated yet. Actual (anti-social GOP) “virtue signaling.” Don’t imagine for a moment people aren’t going to be harassed for continued mask-wearing. And vaccination foot-draggers will be telling themselves, “Well, I was going to get vaccinated, but everything’s back to normal so never mind.” ... It’s easy to say, “You can’t tell who is or is not fully vaccinated by looking at them. And we still have 65% of Americans who remain not fully vaccinated—we still have a ways to go.” ... People who are slow to act tend toward inaction—not action—when given signals all is well.
Rachel Martin of NPR talked to Dr. Leana Wen of George Washington University. Wen said that just two weeks ago the CDC said vaccinated people should be wearing masks outdoors. It is good the CDC is saying the vaccine is really effective and we should act like it is. Throwing away the mask is a powerful incentive to get vaccinated. But that only works when requiring a proof of vaccination. Just an honor code doesn’t work. At risk are the immunocompromised and those who can’t get vaccinated yet, such as young children. No way to know if the person breathing on my children is unvaccinated. If one can do what they want regardless of vaccination, what’s the point? The CDC could have done this in a more defined and controlled manner. Mark Sumner of Daily Kos discussed it as well. Yeah, saying vaccinated people don’t need to wear masks is great.
All of this is absolutely worth at least a few virtual balloons. Only there seems to have been a step omitted: Telling people they can take off their masks if they’ve been fully vaccinated is great, but as policy it means trusting people who have repeatedly proven themselves untrustworthy. For months there have been people proudly forging vaccination cards. States like Tennessee and Texas have even made it easy for them by publishing the template for the vaccination cards online. For all intents, saying that people who have been fully vaccinated need not wear masks is no different than saying “masks off!” to everyone. And that’s not the formula for driving COVID-19 cases down at the fastest rate. ... The problem is there are still a number of people out there who insist that they will not be vaccinated, as well as people who have already gleefully shown that they will falsify the easily duplicated vaccine card. Even more importantly, a number of venues are likely to simply drop mask requirements without bothering to ask for any sort of proof of vaccination. For many stores, restaurants, gyms, and other locations, no masks for the vaccinated will simply mean no masks. That’s unlikely to bring on disaster—after all, 46% of the population is already vaccinated ... But removing the mask requirement will definitely slow the period in which the U.S. drops that new cases per day value from 120 [per million] down to 39, or three. And every day of that delay means more people suffering lasting illness and more families losing a loved one.
Dr. CĂ©line Gounder, specializing in infectious disease, tweeted her response to the CDC guidance. She noted rates of transmission are still high and vaccination rates are still low in parts of the country. The CDC should have said masks can be removed if transmission is low and vaccination rates are high. The guidance says local and workplace rules still apply, but no business wants to police customers. Only 27% of blacks are vaccinated. Would the CDC have changed its guidance if 27% of all Americans had been vaxx’d? While the risk is greatest for unvaxx’d, all are affected. Ongoing transmission leads to virual mutation, leads to new variants, leads to immune-evading, which is bad for vaxx’d people too. Greg Dworkin, in his pundit roundup for Kos, quoted the New York Times. Here’s a bit of it.
Permission to stop using them now offers an incentive to the many millions who are still holding out on vaccination.
As others have said it the only thing it does is give the unvaccinated permission to take off their masks. Dworkin quoted Jennifer Bard of Harvard Law discussing the CDC recommendation:
First and foremost, it shifts the responsibility of protecting people still vulnerable to COVID-19 from the state to the very individuals who can cause the most harm. Whether the harm comes from unvaccinated individuals who choose not to wear masks as a matter of principle, or who simply leave the house without one, or from vaccinated individuals who are still able to transmit the virus, the danger is the same. There will always be people who cannot be vaccinated, whether because of a medical condition, or simply because they are too young.
Bard also mentioned those who can’t wear masks, such as babies. Dworkin included a tweet from Andy Cobb, who says it quite well.
CDC says because I am fully vaccinated I don’t have to wear pants.
Physician Daniel Liebman tweeted:
These vaccine percentages almost perfectly reflect a classic Rogers Diffusion-Of-Innovations Curve. Considering we’re well into the Late Majority at only 5 months, I’m actually quite encouraged. We often measure medical innovation diffusion on a scale of years (or decades).
This will interest my mathematical friend and debate partner because a Diffusion-Of-Innovations Curve looks very much like a bell curve. In another post Sumner reviewed the current status of the pandemic. We’ve been hearing about new variants of the virus, each seemingly more contagious or deadly than the previous. Sumner has charts of the number of cases of each variant. These show how the new variants replace the old. A big problem in India is the new B.1.617.2 variant has completely taken over. In addition to being more contagious it can more easily hide from antibodies. And that’s scary. This variant has already appeared in America. I’ve mentioned Sen. Joe Manchin declared his opposition to S1, the first bill to protect access to voting. Manchin does support the second, the John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act. This restores many of the provisions of the first Voting Rights Act gutted by the Supremes a decade ago. Manchin’s suggestion makes sense, though some Democrats might not support it (we know no GOP will support it. Dworkin quoted Ian Millhiser of Vox who described the suggestion.
Manchin suggested on Wednesday that Congress should pass a much bolder attempt to roll back Shelby County. In an interview with ABC News, Manchin proposed making the John Lewis Act apply “to all 50 states and territories.” Thus, all states, not just the handful of states with the worst record on race, would be required to submit any new voting rules to federal review in order to make sure that the new rule will not target voters of color.
Joan McCarter of Kos discussed Manchin and that first vote protection bill, S1. Moscow Mitch is praising Manchin and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema for protecting democracy. Translation: praise for being Mitch’s tool. How’s that working out for you, Joe? McCarter wrote:
Get that? "There's not a single Republican vote for it." But sure, Manchin, go on and tell us all about how "Republicans feel very strongly about protecting the ballot boxes allowing people to protect the right to vote." They might feel strongly about it, but not in any way that actually ensures voting rights. ... Go on then, Manchin. Tell us about how much Republicans care about protecting the precious franchise for everyone. Tell us about how you're going to get this bill done. While you're at it, how about filling us in on your brilliant plan to get the infrastructure bill passed without nuking the filibuster, because you must have one. ... Right?
McCarter has a suggestion for Manchin:
Find the 10 Republican votes for infrastructure, for voting rights. Get those 10 Republicans to state publicly, with cameras rolling, that they will vote for any compromise, bipartisan legislation.
Bill in Portland, Maine, in his Cheers and Jeers column for Kos, quoted late night commentary. Here’s one of them:
Clip of CDC Director Rochelle Walensky: If you are vaccinated, you can start doing the things, big and small, that you had stopped doing because of the pandemic. Jimmy Fallon: Oh, man. I think things are about to get crazy. Seriously, I just got invited to an orgy at Dr. Fauci's. Honest to god, the next time I hear "N-95" it better be in fifty years when I'm playing Bingo. —The Tonight Show

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