Do you remember the famous 97% climate study?

Joan McCarter of Daily Kos reported that Sen. Joe Manchin may have a plan to exit the Democratic Party to become independent or switch to Republican. If the latter he throws the Senate to Republican majority. And there goes Biden’s agenda. Or Manchin could be bluffing. Or someone is spreading rumors. Or the rumors are being spread because Manchin whispered in particular ears. Whatever the case he is making obnoxious demands on Biden. And McCarter has details on those demands. Kerry Eleveld of Kos reported the latest poll about the Supreme Court, this one by Selzer & Company for Grinnell College. It shows 62% of Americans, broken down as 60% of Republicans, 63% of independents, and 66% of Democrats, believe that politics – not the law – drive Supreme Court decisions. Peter Hanson, director of Grinnell College National Poll, said:

This is a nightmare scenario for Chief Justice John Roberts, who has sought to protect the court’s reputation as an apolitical institution. The court faces a public convinced that its decisions are about politics rather than the Constitution, just as it prepares to make important decisions on abortion, guns, and affirmative action.

Eleveld wrote:

The public is unhappy—unhappy enough that they want to reform the court. That loss of legitimacy, coupled with public support for reshaping the Supreme Court, is indeed Chief Justice Roberts' nightmare scenario—not to mention that of Mitch McConnell.

Chitown Kev, in his pundit roundup for Kos, quoted Justin Rowlatt and Tom Gerken of BBC News. The BBC reported a huge leak of documents show several countries, including Saudi Arabia, Japan, and Australia, are asking the UN to play down the need to move rapidly away from fossil fuels. The documents also show wealthy nations questioning paying poorer countries to help them to move to greener technologies. All of this lobbying is before the Glasgow climate summit to start in about ten days. Mark Lynas, environmental writer, whose new book Our Final Warning: Six Degress of Climate Emergency is out now, tweeted:

Do you remember the famous 97% study - that 97% of climate science supported the consensus on human-caused climate change? Well we have just published an update for 2012-2021 papers in the same journal, Environmental Research Letters. The figure is now... drumroll please...99.9%!

Lynas linked to articles about the paper in the Cornell Cronicle and the Guardian. He also linked to the article. Then he included a profanity laden response from that last 0.1%. Over the last week Eleveld wrote several articles about the Republican Party’s interaction with the nasty guy. The whole mess got messier when the nasty guy threatened to tell his supporters not to vote in 2022 if the Republicans didn’t find a way to overturn the 2020 election. Last Friday Eleveld wrote that the party made a big misstep when it allowed the nasty guy to keep talking. Eleveld quoted a man who said the message of a stolen election made him think he may never vote again. Why do it if his vote will be changed? Several Republican members of Congress say the nasty guy’s obsession with the last election obscures the message they want to project for the coming election. But none of them have the guts, integrity, or political capital to confront the nasty guy. That includes Moscow Mitch. On Saturday Eleveld wrote about the nasty guy is pitting Republicans against Republicans. One way he is doing it is to endorse candidates in the most critical Congressional – the ones who most eagerly embrace the Big Lie. Another is to reach into state parties and demand more sham audits. A poll shows the effect – some GOP members saying others in their party don’t deserve to be reelected. On Tuesday Eleveld wrote:

Congressional Republicans worst-case scenario for 2022 is that Donald Trump's cultists—who tend to be lower-propensity voters—stay home while Trump's dominance of the party turns off higher propensity GOP voters who can't stand him. ... Gee, maybe if you turn your party into a cult and the cult leader tells everybody the whole system is a sham, then some of the cultists might divest from the system. ... For all the focus on Trump voters potentially not turning out, the possibility that anti-Trump voters will turn out but be dismayed by Trump's continued takeover of the party is perhaps just as big of a liability for the GOP next year.

Also last Friday Eleveld wrote the National Republican Congressional Committee has taken a page from the nasty guy in its fundraising. The text begins:

You’re a traitor… You abandoned Trump. We were told you were a tried & true, lifelong patriot.

Eleveld wrote there are several things to note. First: it says “You’re a traitor,” not “You will be a traitor if you fail to ...” The reader is put on the defensive. Second, the betrayal is to the nasty guy, not the NRCC or the Republican Party. There is a bit at the end allowing the reader to make amends. Eleveld wrote:

Of course, this is cult mentality at its finest. Two near-universal hallmarks of cults are the elevation of an authority figure to near-deity status, and the threat of “shunning” and ostracism for those who try to leave. Claims of “special” knowledge that only cult members possess—such as Trump’s promotion of the Big Lie—and an overriding “us versus them” mentality are also common characteristics of such groups. Nor should we ignore the distinct possibility that, as disciples of authoritarianism, many Republicans actually crave being addressed and debased by such terminology; it’s worth noting that when asked his opinion about these texts, Illinois Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger acknowledged their effectiveness. The fact that this text boils down to a mere solicitation for money shouldn’t obscure the more profound and troubling fact that one of this country’s two major political parties has become so beholden to a single personality that all significant decisions it now makes, including how to raise funds, are inextricably tied to that person’s fortunes. The fact that this individual has a proven, lethal track record of treachery, deceit, and complete indifference to basic principles of good faith—let alone the welfare of the country and all norms of human decency—makes that solicitation all the more remarkable.

Yesterday Eleveld wrote:

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell wants a mulligan on his failure to convict Donald Trump earlier this year during his second impeachment trial. McConnell's fumble is undoubtedly responsible for breathing new life into Trump, who has now overwhelmed the party McConnell fancifully imagined was under his command. ... "I do think we need to be thinking about the future and not the past," McConnell responded, obviously lamenting Trump's obsession with his 2020 election loss. "I think the American people are focusing on this administration, what it's doing to the country, and it's my hope the '22 election will be a referendum on the performance of the current administration, not a rehash of suggestions about what may have happened in 2020." Good luck with that, Senator.

Some interesting tweets from over the last few days: Leah McElrath tweeted quote of a tweet by A. R. Moxon:

It’s best to understand that fascists see hypocrisy as a virtue. It’s how they signal that the things they are doing to people were never meant to be equally applied. It’s not an inconsistency. It’s very consistent to the only true fascist value, which is domination.

I add: They’re declaring themselves to be at the top of the social hierarchy by making the lives of others worse. McElrath quoted a tweet from Sewell Chan with the news that Texas Gov. Greg Abbott hired as the new Secretary of State a lawyer who helped the nasty guy challenge the PA election results. McElrath added:

I hate to tell y’all this, but we can’t out-organize this kind of institutional corruption. It doesn’t matter how many people we turn out to vote if they’re laying foundation to overturn the results when those results are unfavorable.

Another from McElrath:

We are taught to associate poor people with theft and to fear them accordingly. Yet it is the wealthy who steal the value of our labor and our common natural resources and leave behind broken bodies and denuded environments. Wealthy people are the real danger.

Ben Franklin tweeted (though he didn’t mention the context):

We have no idea what secrets were stolen, how badly our national security was damaged from within under Trump. It’s perfectly possible the government is so compromised that it is helpless to act now to do anything but avoid conflict.

Franklin also tweeted:

a lot of conspiracies against the public play out right in the open. you don't need total secrecy, you just need sufficient confusion.

I note he wrote “conspiracies” and not “conspiracy theories.” Adam Tranter, who advocates for safer streets for walking and cycling, included a video with his tweet:

Barcelona has an amazing school cycle bus every Friday. Wherever you are in the world, few kids will see this and think “I’d like to be driven to school instead”. When the project started there were just five children taking part. Change can happen fast.

The video shows a huge group of kids. I tried to learn more, but only saw other postings of the same video. I think describing it as a school cycle bus means there are adults to keep the kids together and safe. Ashton Pittman tweeted:

It is weird how humanity decided that genitalia makes for good insults. You never hear anyone talk about other body parts like that. Can you imagine? "I hate you, you stupid arm." "You f***ng neck." "What an elbow." "Goddam nosehole." "You pathetic fingernail bed."