I don’t need a ride, I need ammo

I downloaded Michigan’s COVID data, updated Friday, and ran it through my graphing program – and it didn’t work. This spreadsheet had a different format for the date, using dashes to separate the parts of the date instead of slashes. So I had to revise my program to handle both formats (I still want to display old spreadsheets). Once I did that, I could see good news! The new cases per day continues to go down. The peaks in the last three weeks are 4260, 2117, and 1426. The high peak at the start of January has been raised to 28,136. For the week of February 20th the deaths per day have ranged from 23 to 50. Also good news! I didn’t post yesterday because I watched a livestream concert of the Detroit Symphony Orchestra. I watched and listened to a Mozart violin concerto and Mahler’s Titan Symphony. Then this afternoon I watched the livestream of an elite handbell event where 150 people gather to play the hard stuff. That means I have a lot of updates on the Russia/Ukraine war. Mark Sumner of Daily Kos wrote an update post Friday afternoon and updated it into the early evening. As with other Kos “Ukraine Updates” this offers some analysis and includes various tweets and videos. There are a couple major points in this one: First, Russia is obviously not worrying about civilian casualties. Second, thousands of Ukrainians are fleeing – and thousands more are staying for the fight. In amongst the various videos and tweets is one from an Irish TV host asking a Russian ambassador: “Why should our government entertain your presence here when you’re acting as an apologist for slaughter?” A long list of countries have closed their air space to the Russian airline Aeroflot. Marissa Higgins of Kos wrote about the Sunflower Babuska, who is in a video that is getting a lot of circulation (even Kos writers have posted this video a few times). She is a Ukrainian woman who goes up to Russian soldiers and, speaking in Russian, offers them sunflower seeds. Sunflowers are the national flower of Ukraine. She does this so the soldiers can put them in their pockets and when they lie down (are killed) at least the sunflowers will grow Higgins also included photos of various buildings around the world, plus Niagara Falls, that are lit up with the Ukrainian colors of yellow (representing wheat) and blue (representing sky). On Friday evening Kos of Kos posted images of bravery by Ukrainians and solidarity by the rest of the world. The first tweet had me pondering what a leader might do when his country is attacked. An option is to flee, either to another country or away from the capital. Perhaps he can direct the response and inspire the citizens while providing a way for the leadership to continue when the fighting is done. Or he can lead the actual fighting. Volodymyr Zelensky (I’ve seen the name also spelled with a double “y” at the end) has chosen that route. An image in this post showing him in military gear. I’ve heard he has told Western leaders a couple things. First: This may be the last time you see me alive. Second, when offered safe passage out of the country: I don’t need a ride, I need ammo. Not bad for a guy whose previous job was a comedian and best known for playing the president of Ukraine on TV. This reminds me of Britain’s Queen Mum, mother of the current monarch. She didn’t evacuate during WWII, but stayed in London, dealing with the Blitz and everything else the same way Londoners did. She was adored by the country for doing that. On Friday evening Kos wrote about how bad the Russian military was doing, and how shocked everyone is with such low performance. I’m including it because the situation doesn’t appear to have changed. Though well aware that what he is sharing may be Ukrainian and international propaganda meant to humiliate Putin and inspire Ukranians, Kos included tweets that Russia hasn’t achieved any of its major objectives of surrounding key cities – especially Kyiv – and replacing the government with a puppet. Kos goes into detail. Russia still hasn’t captured key border towns. As of Sunday evening that still hasn’t happened. Why? So perhaps Russian troops might bypass towns and head cross country. But that can also be a problem – supply lines are much more vulnerable to attacks. And supply lines are critical. Other posts have shown mud is also a problem – tanks can sink into it. Kos noted that Russia has amassed 150K to 190K troops on the border yet only 30% have crossed into Ukraine. Some warn that means Russia could intensify the attack at any time. But Kos wrote:

If Russia could send those troops across, it would’ve done so already. The fact that it hasn’t suggests that it can’t. Why? Supply lines. You send all your tanks across, but without the infrastructure to fuel and maintain them, and they end up dead in the water, sitting uselessly at the side of the road (or even worse for Russia, captured, and pressed into service by the Ukrainian side). ... Ukraine is still seriously overmatched, in manpower and equipment, but it’s starting to look like a much fairer fight than anyone dared hope. As I’ve written about, morale can be a great equalizer, and Russia’s early difficulties are doing more to buck up Ukraine’s national fighting spirit than just about anything else possible (absent the entrance of allied armies into the fight).

So with Putin appearing to be humiliated by Ukraine and his actions driving neutral Sweden and Finland into NATO, what’s next? I like the sign a protester is holding:

DEAR PUTIN, LET’S SPEED UP TO THE PART WHERE YOU KILL YOURSELF IN A BUNKER.

I see at the speed I’m going I will not be able to keep up. So here are links to other Ukraine Updates with minimal commentary. Saturday morning and Ukraine is still here. The Ukraine Interior ministry asked residents to take down street signs to confuse invaders. One went further – a sign pointing in three directions with all three destinations saying “Go F--- Yourselves.” Saturday noon. In amongst the other tweets and videos Sumner included short one of a rally at Berlin’s Brandenburg Gate (which used to be right along the Berlin Wall) in which hundreds sing the “Ode to Joy” (though we really only hear the nearby voices). Saturday afternoon Kos wrote about Putin is becoming more isolated, especially after he threatened Finland and Sweden. Viktor Orban, working to become the autocrat of Hungary, used to be best buds with Putin. But even Orban has turned against him. There was a vote on a resolution in the UN Security Council. Only Russia voted no, though there were a couple of abstentions. Russia’s veto killed the resolution, but that hardly matters now. Saturday evening. Russia is making gains, but more slowly than people expected. Even so, the night will be hellish. Sunday morning Hunter of Kos that a humiliated Putin might become more dangerous. Rather than encircling major cities and trying to topple the government, he might switch to leveling the cities. Will more weapons arrive from NATO in time to prevent that? Sunday noon Sumner again ponders what is going on with the Russian military. He included a video of a Russian ship asking a Georgian maintenance ship to refuel. The assistant captain refused, telling the invaders they should row their boat. Kos wrote that the new Ukrainian pastime is to say to a Russian soldier’s face to “f--- off.” It’s especially brave when a gun is pointing in your direction. Sunday afternoon Kos looked at tanks stuck in mud and destroyed by the side of the road and wondered if this might be the last war fought with tanks. Also, always neutral Switzerland is talking about freezing Russian assets. Sunday evening Hunter reported that Putin has demanded Kyiv be taken by Monday. The risk of escalation and more destructive actions remains high. Why Monday? When financial markets open in the morning the ruble, already plummeting, will collapse. Many have said sanctions will take a while to work, but maybe not. To keep control Putin needs to show a victory – as the world hopes he doesn’t get it. On Friday, Gabe Ortiz of Kos reported that chef and humanitarian José Andrés and his World Central Kitchen is going to Poland to see about setting up operations to feed Ukrainian refugees. By now he may already be there and making things happen.