War crimes as a strategy

I’ve got ten Ukraine updates in my browser tabs to get through. That includes deciding not to discuss some of them (so don’t count the links). Mark Sumner of Daily Kos described four train stations in Ukraine being bombed, killing at least 35 people (I think the number has since risen to above 50). Sumner wrote:

Informed of this latest tragedy, Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy replied in a way that captured the whole nature of the last 43 days of this invasion: “Lacking the strength and courage to stand up to us on the battlefield,” said Zelenskyy, “they are cynically destroying the civilian population. This is an evil that has no limits.” It was Ian Fleming's arch-villain Auric Goldfinger who uttered one of the most memorable lines in fiction, “Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, three times is enemy action.” When it comes to missiles and bombs directed at civilian targets, Russia is far past those bounds. What they’re doing is something that goes beyond even the terrible label of war crime. It is war crimes as a strategy. It blows past depraved indifference into the realm of cold and calculated malevolence.

Russians have bombed hospitals, schools, water and electrical plants, civilian homes, and places marked as shelters. Yes, Western countries, including the US dropped millions of bombs on Dresden and other places hoping some would find the intended targets and knowing lives would end. This isn’t that.

This is directed artillery fire and precision-guided munitions that have been deliberately targeted to cause the most pain, the most death, the most ongoing harm, to civilians. It’s a strategy to deprive people of their homes, of their health, and where if fails to take away their lives, of anything that might make those lives tolerable. What makes it far more terrible is that if Russian forces were actually seeking to limit their strikes to military targets, and to hit civilian areas only when they were intermingled with military equipment, they could. The Russian military didn’t just choose not to do that, they chose to do the opposite. They chose to preferentially attack civilians and civilian infrastructure. It is a malignant strategy. A despicable strategy. One for which sufficiently vile adjectives do not exist. It’s little wonder Russian soldiers are engaged in horrendous crimes as individuals when their leadership is showing them that causing pain and suffering is the goal.

Kos of Kos discussed the news that Russia will carry out a major offense against the central city of Dnipro. They may try, wrote Kos, but based on their previous lack of success around Kyiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv the attempt to take Dnipro will set new records in stupidity. Then he explained what is stupid about it. Hunter of Kos reported the Russian effort in Donbas doesn’t look so good either.

Everything we've seen on the Donbas front so far is a continuation of Kyiv-area tactics. Russia launches battalion-sized raids into enemy territory; Russian forces get decimated by Ukrainian defenders with access to anti-armor weapons and, now, able to target those advances with precision artillery strikes; Russian forces retreat while continuing to shell whatever civilian infrastructure happens to be within range. That Russia was able to finally capture Izyum is significant, but even it faces the Kyiv problem. The supply lines are long, winding through contested areas, and Ukraine can bring the same tactics that it used around Kyiv to whittle down Russian columns before they ever make it to the frontlines.

Hunter reported the number of refugees who have fled Ukraine has topped 4.5 million. Ukrainian officials advised civilians of Luhansk and Donetsk to leave those regions before Russia attacks again (see train station attacks above). I’ve heard other reports that Russia is massing troops for an attack west of Donbas. Kos explained why that likely won’t succeed. Russian forces have been shredded – by a lot. They’re no longer fielding complete units. Those that came from the Kyiv front need to rest and aren’t given it. Russia hasn’t been able to attack with more than one or two battalions at a time. If they attacked with all they have (which is a lot less than they had) and do it all at once they could get somewhere. But they haven’t done that. Kos discussed the spring mud season, well underway.

The rains over the next week will make a muddy mess of the battlefield, swallowing any vehicle stupid enough to go off road. Artillery won’t be affected however. A clever ambush would drop a few random artillery shells in front of a convoy, wait for the vehicles to veer into those muddy fields in a panic, and then helpfully take them off Russia’s hands, intact, for Ukrainian army requisition. Tractors would be helpfully standing by.

Kos explained how he and Sumner (and Hunter and the rest of the Kos staff) deal with the fog of war (and the way they report on news in general). They’re aware of the kinds of misinformation – the hostile kind, the friendly kind, click-bait confirmation bias, honest mistakes (calling an artillery gun a “tank”), and war-splaining pundits. So they piece their stories together from confirmed facts while admitting holes in their knowledge. They are aware of confirmation bias – reporting on something they wan to be true. So if there is no confirmation they don’t report it. Kos and Sumner also rely on their experience and expertise of serving in the US military. They know about logistics, strategy, and tactics and know when they don’t seen those in the Russian forces. And they read the comments, which can provide details and context. And because of all that they seem to be more accurate than other sources and have issued fewer retractions. Hunter reported that the war crimes that were revealed when Russia retreated from Kyiv are a key reason, perhaps the top reason, why NATO ended the distinction between “defensive” and “offensive” weapons it gives to Ukraine. And that retreat means NATO is a lot less worried about provoking Russia into widening the war. Kos again reviewed the reasons why Russia will have difficulties in Donbas. Many of their battalions have been damaged enough to not be effective. Combining the remains of two battalions doesn’t work all that well. Several were undermanned before the war started and may not have been deployed. Russia suffered high losses. Those still alive are being recommitted without proper rest or reinforcement. They’re out of experienced troops. They can’t manage to attack with more than one or two battalions at a time. And the mud. Professor Olga Chyzh tweeted an explanation of why so many Russian speakers outside Russia support Putin. The breakup of the USSR put ethnic minorities against majorities. These minorities were able to break away and establish their own countries. Along with that they emphasized the national, such as Moldovan, over Russian. They also had different ideas of what language is official and who gets power and wealth. Ethnic Russians in those areas were passed over for promotions. But propaganda taught that Russians were superior to all others and the Russian language is the purest and most beautiful. Why should they accept a government made up of non-Russians? There was no point – Russia would reabsorb them soon anyway and they would get their pension back. They don’t care about the Bucha massacre because the victims were “inferior.” Last week I wrote that battery swapping for electric cars would reduce range anxiety and eliminate charging times. Pull into a service station, swap out one battery for another, and be back on the road real quick. B12love of the Kos community wrote a rebuttal to the piece I based my writing on. Here are the major points of the rebuttal: * Battery production is so low it limits EV sales. A battery swapping system needs lots of extra batteries. * Battery cost is so high – it is the most expensive component in the car – makers can’t afford to make extra batteries for a swapping system. And high cost invites thieves to raid swapping stations. * Fast charging options already available, including charging at home, will handle 90% of our needs. * Battery and charging improvements will make charging faster and less frequent. * When we get to the world of calling up a car for each trip they’ll come to us charged. Several commenters had lots to say that autonomous vehicles are a much harder problem than anticipated. One even talked about autonomous cars being hacked and kidnapping the occupants for ransom. So ignore that last point.