As long as the West doesn’t invade the Kremlin Putin can declare a win

In a Ukraine update Charles Jay of the Daily Kos community reported that a Russian oligarch has been making the rounds of Russian penal colonies to recruit convicted criminals to be mercenary soldiers in Ukraine. Preference is given to murderers, robbers, and looters. Those convicted of rape will serve in a separate unit. Critics say inmate recruits are more likely to commit atrocities. This oligarch defended his actions by saying the choice is between prisoners or your children. Many recruits know they are to be cannon fodder or human speed bumps to a Ukrainian advance. They also know how cruel the Russian penal system is. Some say as soon as they can they will surrender. Lyman is a city in northeast Ukraine that has a Russian garrison of maybe 3,000 soliders. In a Wednesday midday update Mark Sumner of Kos reported that both major roads from Russian held territory into Lyman were threatened by or close to being controlled by Ukrainian forces. That means the town is close to being encircled and cut off from supplies. Sumner wrote that the Russian forces have three options. (1) Retreat, though troops from farther back may need to hold the road open. (2) Surrender. (3) Keep fighting and let the bodies keep piling up. On Thursday early afternoon Sumner stepped back from which village is being contested to look at the big picture. Putin has made two moves. First, a partial mobilization that is really a national conscription. Second he conducted referendums in occupied parts of Ukraine to justify declaring them part of Russia. The news today is he held a big ceremony officially declaring the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions part of Russia. Those steps set up a third move that seem increasingly possible: the use of a tactical (small) nuke. Declaring these regions part of Russia has a few purposes. Putin can declare a win. Now that he declares them Russian he can send conscript soldiers there. Conscripts can be used only on Russian territory. And the Russian constitution forbids the use of nukes except to defend Russian territory. Sumner discussed a few things that Kamil Galeev, historian and analyst, tweeted. Putin wants to stay in power after losing in Ukraine. One way to do that is to shift the frame so that Putin loses to all of the Western powers combined. Even though Russia is pushed entirely out of Ukraine, as long as the West doesn’t invade the Kremlin Putin can declare that a win. Biden has been firm in saying this war won’t involve American boots on the ground. But the use of a tactical nuke will definitely draw the US in. However, the US response does not have to be nuclear. It can be something like destroying the entire Russian Black Sea Fleet. There are signs the US has discussed what an appropriate response might be. But, of course, no one is telling the public. In a Thursday evening update Kos of Kos reported that Lyman is being close to encircled. Beyond Lyman there is little to stop Ukraine from liberating the eastern end of Russian held territory with the added benefit of interrupting Russian supply lines from Belgorod into Donbas. Russia, already not good at logistics, will need to develop a longer supply line around the east end of Ukraine. In an update a bit after midnight Kos included reports that say Lyman, with those Russian troops (and a lot of equipment), has been encircled and those troops cut off from escape. No need for street-by-street fighting. Greg Dworkin, in a pundit roundup for Kos, quoted a Huffpost story about football great Brett Favre diverting money from Mississippi’s poor people to build a volleyball stadium at his alma mater, University of Southern Mississippi. The money was taken from the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families. From the article:

But there’s an even bigger scandal here: Nationwide, most TANF money doesn’t go to poor people in the first place. Just 22% of program funds went to cash assistance in 2020, according to an analysis of state and federal data by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a liberal think tank. The bulk of the rest of the money paid for child care, training programs, tax credits and administration of the program itself. The Favre case “is absolutely an egregious example of the pitfalls that are inherent in TANF today,” Aditi Shrivastava, a senior policy analyst with the CBPP, said in an interview. Why does the program most closely associated with the word “welfare” spend so little money on actual cash welfare? Because that’s how Congress wanted it.

Dworkin also quoted Damon Young of the Washington Post, that says “woke” is the latest racial dog whistle applied to people like him.

There’s “urban” of course. And urban’s cousin “inner-city.” And then there’s “at-risk,” “underserved” and “fatherless” if talking about our children. “Marginalized,” “low-income” and “welfare-dependent” if talking about the parents of those children. We live in “Democratic strongholds” like “Chicago,” but we’re also “socialists” and “low-information voters” taught “critical race theory” by “Marxists” so we can be “anti-American.” Our neighborhoods are “sketchy” and “depressed” “ghettos” filled with “thugs” and “transient” “Section 8” “renters” employable only through “affirmative action” “diversity” “quotas.” If we choose to play a sport, we are “naturally gifted,” “ungrateful,” “intimidating” and somehow both “aggressive” and “lazy.”

Aysha Qamar of Kos reported another type of book that is being challenged and banned in schools and libraries. This one is the series Girls Who Code, popular in middle school. The series is about the adventures of young girls who are a part of a coding club at school. The reason for the ban is the phrase “You cannot be what you cannot see.” Marissa Higgins of Kos reported that Jeremy David Hanson plead guilty for threatening violence against offices of Merriam-Webster, the dictionary people, because they are expanding the definition of “woman” to include transgender people. Hanson is yet to be sentenced any may get up to five years. His reaction to the updated definition may have the most violent threats, but it certainly isn’t the only one. Higgins also reported that more than 12,000 high school students across Virginia walked out to protest the anti-LGBTQ guidelines being pushed by Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin.

As Daily Kos previously covered, the Virginia Department of Education (VDOE) introduced draft guidelines for school boards across the state that are, unfortunately, a considerable step backward in queer and trans rights and protections for students and staff. The guidelines were released on Sept. 16 and were met with immediate backlash—for good reason. Among other nightmares, the guidelines allow staff to misgender and deadname students, to keep trans youth off of sports teams that align with their gender identity, and ban trans youth from bathrooms and locker rooms that align with their gender identity. These policies seem to be a reaction to the decent trans-inclusive policies introduced by Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam. But students aren’t just mad. They’re fighting back with peaceful demonstrations, as we saw on Tuesday, Sept. 27, when thousands of students participated in a coordinated walkout. “Governor Youngkin says that he cares about parental rights and Virginia, but he’s just attacking Queer students,” Natasha, a student in Fairfax County, stated, as reported by Blue Virginia. “If he truly cared about our students, he wouldn’t be putting us at risk for depression, harm, abuse, and harassment.”