They don’t need to kill to win the war

I was up earlier than usual on Saturday morning so watched the coronation of King Charles. I missed about 45 minutes of the ceremony, but watched the rest, then stayed for the parade and the appearance of the family on the balcony. The previous coronation was before I was born. If Charles lives as long as his mother did the coronation of William may happen after I’m gone. And, as an announcer said this morning, very few other countries are doing coronations these days. When I started watching there were various items – a sword or two, a cape, a glove, a ring, a scepter or two, an orb, and a few others – that were presented to Charles and he either touched them, put them on, or held them for a while as the Archbishop prayed over them. And while his hands were full the Archbishop placed the crown on his head. As I watched this I thought Jesus was very much into disrupting and subverting social hierarchies and here his name was invoked to bless a king, the top of any social hierarchy. My Sunday movie was Of an Age, an Australian film. The story begins in 1999. Ebony wakes up on a beach and is panicky because she doesn’t know where she is. She calls her good friend and (I think) dance partner young Kol to come get her then get the two of them to a dance competition finals. Kol is able to get Ebony’s brother Adam to drive. It isn’t possible to drive to where Ebony is and get to the competition in time. However, the long drive gives Kol a chance to get to know Adam and to learn Adam is gay. By the next morning, before Adam is to leave town, Kol, who had said he’s not gay, and Adam fall in love. In 2010 on their way to Ebony’s wedding they meet again. It’s a gentle story and I enjoyed it. However, thinking about it afterward I decided there isn’t a lot of story here. Meteor Blades of Daily Kos covered a few topics in his Earth Matters report. Democrats and Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse are working to highlight states with thriving renewable energy sectors have thriving economies overall and Republicans don’t like that. There’s a discussion why there is a delay in delivery of electric postal vans and why some of those ordered are not electric. There are a few others. The one that prompted me to share this was the story of a representative of the Tennessee House began by saying, “We're always gonna have climate change because the ice age never came.” What he said after that was worse. Rep. Justin Jones, who was restored after an ouster, replied:

Thank you, Representative, for making the case why we need to fund more money into our education, into our public schools, so we can educate our students and they don't grow up with these conspiracy theories.

I like this guy. In honor of Earth Day a few weeks ago Marine Trébaul tweeted a cartoon drawn by Paresh of a very important guy posing in front of a backdrop of trees while behind the backdrop are stumps, trash, and smokestacks. The caption says “Earth Day, 2035” though Trébaul added world leaders are acting like that today. Mark Sumner of Kos reported on what appears to be a drone attack on the Kremlin early last Wednesday morning. They caused a great deal of consternation before they were shot down. There were claims that this was an assassination attempt on Putin. Did the drones fly the 500 Km from Ukraine through the most secure air corridor? Were they launched from Moscow suburbs by Russian partisans or Ukrainian forces allowed by a strangely lax internal security? Or was this drone attack staged by Russia? If it was staged is it an excuse to cancel the May 9 victory parade (already canceled in other cities due to security concerns)? Or is it an excuse to lob a missile at Zelenskyy’s bedroom? In Sumner’s next report he noted there were lots of social media speculation that Russia was preparing for that last option and some of the preparations included nukes. And on Thursday morning Kyiv was not a crater. The chance Russia would actually use nukes is quite small – though they may threaten a lot.

What could Russia do that would make them a pariah forever, remove any thought about NATO providing immediate and direct military assistance to Ukraine, and ensure that a generation of Russians would grow up in cities administered by U.N. forces? You get one guess.

However, be kind to the open source intelligence community. They explain the war to a lot of people and are a primary source for Sumner. So if they get caught up in the “NUKE!” mania every so often, they’re only human, so cut them some slack. Kos of Kos wrote that a lot of people are trying to guess when Ukraine will begin its counterattack (or trying to urge them to start soon). But Kos counsels we can wait until Ukraine is ready on their own terms. Russia isn’t advancing. It has dug in all along the front, but another two, or six, more months won’t change that situation. Ukraine needs time to integrate all the new gear (including those important tanks) into its training and logistics. So give them time to do what they need to get it right because if they fail a chance to try again may not happen for a while. While waiting is hard whenever the victory comes it will be sweet. Sumner reported on yesterday’s Victory Day celebration and parade in Moscow. It was a much smaller event than in previous years. No military flyover. No Immortal Regiment of family of WWII fighters holding photos of their warriors. The numbered of armored vehicles was only 51, down from 131 last year (which was after the start of the war). And one tank. Putin’s speech was short. Sumner also reported on a growing feud between Prigozhin, head of the Wagner Group attacking Bakhmut, and the rest of the Russian military. After a few days of saying he’s withdrawing, no he isn’t, yes he is, he and his forces are being replace by the 72nd Brigade. In today’s update Sumner reported that as the Wagner group pulled out of Bakhmut they weren’t allowed to talk to their replacements (didn’t want to tip them off about bad their situation was about to become?). That lack of communication meant there was a big opening for Ukraine, which they took. And a lot of the Russians fled or surrendered. A few even surrendered to drones. And that last bit is a sign of Ukraine’s humanity. They don’t need to kill to win the war. Last Friday Charles Jay of the Kos community discussed a way out of the debt ceiling crisis. Because of debt ceiling puts a cap on what the US government can borrow and that cap will be hit in a few weeks, McCarthy and House maniacs have taken it hostage, demanding steep cuts in federal spending. Either option they present would seriously harm the economy. So people are looking for a way out. The one Jay discussed would be for someone affected by the government not paying its bills to sue Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to force her to keep paying bills even though doing so would exceed the cap. That someone could be a holder of a US Treasury bond whose interest would not be paid, or a government employee would could lose income while the situation is sorted out. The law that says the government can’t exceed the set debt limit was passed in 1917. Up until the 1990s the limit was always passed as a routine function of Congress. Then Speaker Newt Gingrich tried to hold it hostage, getting concessions from Bill Clinton. It was held hostage again when Obama was president. The important point in that history is the constitutionality of the law has never been tested. With another, more severe hostage taking it’s time for that test. There are clauses in the Constitution, including in the 14th Amendment, that government debts must be paid. So the plaintiff could choose a friendly district court, in the same way that Republicans chose a friendly court in Texas for its attempt at overturning abortion pill availability. Then comes the nice part. There would be no one to appeal. Yellen, Biden, and the rest of his administration wouldn’t appeal because they would agree with the outcome. Republicans can’t appeal because they aren’t the injured party. So it wouldn’t go to the Supremes – and if it did they probably wouldn’t be willing to crash the economy. On Monday Joan McCarter of Kos reported that 43 Senate Republicans signed a letter to Schumer saying they won’t vote for a “clean” debt ceiling increase – a bill that only increases the debt limit and doesn’t include spending cuts. That’s enough senators to filibuster any bill they don’t like. Moscow Mitch has made it clear he won’t help Biden. McCarter summarized it this way:

That’s the Republican plan heading into 2024: inflict maximum economic pain through default or draconian spending cuts and then pin it on Biden.

On Tuesday Biden had top House and Senate leadership to the White House to talk about how to avert the crisis. The two sides repeated their positions and that was about it. Afterward McCarthy whined that Biden wouldn’t negotiate. On Tuesday Jay reported that a suit has been filed against Yellen challenging the constitutionality of the debt ceiling law.

The lawsuit was filed on Monday by the National Association of Government Employees, which represents nearly 75,000 employees of federal agencies. The union says a default would harm its members who would be at risk of being laid off or losing pay and benefits. It says the debt ceiling law adopted in 1917 violates the U.S. Constitution's separation of powers because it forces the president in the event of a default to cut spending already authorized by Congress.

An article from the Associated Press posted on Kos on May 1 reported that two hospitals that refused to provide emergency abortions, jeopardizing the life of the women, have been found in violation of federal law. The situation is because so many states have banned abortion and doctors are scared of treating patients and then losing their license. But the federal law requiring treating patients in emergency situations supersedes state law, said HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra. The hospitals were not fined this time but were warned they must correct the problems that led them to turn away patients. KFF Health News for Kos reported that two labor and delivery wards in northern Idaho have closed. People must now travel an hour for pregnancy care. These wards provided much more than abortion care. But the reason for their closure is the state’s abortion ban. Doctors and nurses refuse to work under those circumstances and are leaving. Medical school students are deciding not to practice in a state that won’t let them treat all situations. There was an effort to modify the law for such things as an ectopic pregnancy, which is never viable and may be deadly for the mother. Rep. Mark Sauter had a few things explained to him (things the dudes who wrote the law would never think of) to clarify what is an emergency and what conditions would be exempt from the ban. But Rep. Julianne Young shot down that bill, saying “We want to make sure that health of the mother doesn’t become so broad that everything becomes an exception to take the life of a potential child.” So it will remain not broad enough to protect the mother. Alec Karakatsanis, a civil right lawyer, tweeted (about a month ago):

Every day, it's important to remind people that it will be cops who enforce the planned nationwide ban on abortion, traveling for abortion, and subsequently contraception. There is no conceivable world in which increasing police surveillance tech and budgets is not used for this.