We can't afford not to mitigate climate change

This afternoon I went to the Detroit Auto Show (well, more properly the North America International Auto Show), one of the big and important ones. It didn’t seem so big this year. My main reason for going is to ask the various companies while they’re gathered in one place when they will have an electric car for sale – not an SUV or a truck, but a car. I’m a single guy and don’t need or want a big vehicle. I also want a range of at least 300 miles to be able to drive to visit my brother without stopping for a charge (and I’m well aware I’ll need to allow charging time for more distant family). There’s the Chevy Bolt that gets about 250 miles per charge. But in general the response was no release dates yet, though many should have something by 2025. The back of this convention hall had an EV test track set up. A person or three could go for a ride in one of nine EV models (all SUV or larger). I didn’t try this myself. I’m sure each company had designated drivers and didn’t let the public behind the wheel. There was a straight section to show acceleration, then various curves and weaving to show what it could do. To stress the speed there was a lot of squealing tires. After a while I realized something else – no engine noise. But of course, there would be no test driving of internal combustion engines on an indoor track. I saw all I needed to see and got the current answers to my question in about 90 minutes. Juana Summers of NPR talked to Richard Wiles, president of the Center for Climate Integrity. They discussed California’s suit against Big Oil. The suit says oil companies knew they were causing climate changed and lied to cover it up. California wants them to pay for damages. Here is some of what they talked about. Cali is the first oil producing state to sue Big Oil. One reason for the suit is to inspire more states to do the same. The damages in just Cali could easily go into the hundreds of billions of dollars and topping a trillion is imaginable. Cali has dealt with floods, wildfires, and something as basic as needing more electricity for air conditioning. This is also about justice. Big Oil lied and went on to cause a great deal of damage. Getting accountability is the first step in solving the problem. This suit (and the ones that hopefully follow) is about a crime against humanity perpetrated by the oil companies. The companies claim such lawsuits are politicized and without merit. Wiles responds that the companies have not yet has a single substantive critique of the core of the case. They try to deflect the message that these suits are a waste of time and money. But the evidence is overwhelming and deflection is all they have. After the discussion Summers read part of a statement from the American Petroleum Institute:

This ongoing coordinated campaign to wage meritless, politicized lawsuits against a foundational American industry and its workers is nothing more than a distraction from important national conversations and an enormous waste of California taxpayer resources. Climate policy is for Congress to debate and decide, not the court system.

Yup, the API responded with exactly the same deflection Wiles said they would. Mark Sumner of Daily Kos reported that demand for EVs is accelerating, showing exponential growth in sales. The European Union has approved a plan to ban the sale of gas-powered cars by 2035. But that’s only a third of the oil that’s being saved by EVs. The rest is types of EVs rarely seen in America – electric motorcycles, scooters, and tuk-tuks. They replaced just under one million barrels of oil a day in 2023. Sumner wrote:

Why are these smaller EVs becoming so popular? Because they are easier to maintain, cheaper to operate, and in many cases cheaper to buy than gas versions. In crowded cities where most trips are only a few miles and on streets where traffic rules can seem … creative, electric scooters can be the perfect means of getting from A to B.

Sumner included a photo of a scooter traffic jam in Indonesia. Some things don’t change. Meteor Blades, in an Earth Matters column for Kos, wrote about a new report by Oil Change International discussing the Planet Wreckers – the 20 countries (not companies) that are still expanding oil extraction. At the top of the list are the US, Canada, and Russia. The report also reported there are just five oil companies responsible for 51% of the oil expansion. This expansion would make holding global average temperature increases to just 1.5C impossible. Even extracting oil from existing sites would cause the world to exceed the 1.5C limit. Exceeding the 1.5C limit would make large swaths of the planet unlivable by humans or anything else. Romain Ioualalen, co-author of the report, said (in part) in a press release:

It’s simple: when you are in a hole, the first step is to stop digging. The climate crisis is global in nature—but is atrociously unjust. A handful of the world’s richest nations are risking our future by willingly ignoring the calls to rapidly phase out fossil fuels. Despite very clear science telling us what is in store beyond 1.5°C, these so-called climate leaders are planning for climate chaos. Continuing to increase fossil fuel production anywhere is not compatible with a liveable future and has been rightly called “moral and economic madness” by U.N. Secretary General Guterres.

Blades then discussed Carbon Market Watch which looks into the green pledges of the 24 world’s biggest companies, all of which advertise as climate leaders. The big problem is the climate strategies and goals set by these companies are too ambiguous to be of any use or their numbers rely on offsets that aren’t as good as actually cutting emissions. Climate conference COP28 will be in Dubai this year and starts on November 30. Last year in Egypt there were 600 fossil fuel lobbyists declaring how green their companies are. This year there will be more – at least they’ll have to identify themselves. Also of concern, the host is Sultan Ahmed Al Jabar who is the head of the Abu Dhabi state oil company and the Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology. With him at the top who needs lobbyists? Ella Nilsen of CNN reported:

With four months still left in the year, the US has been hit with 23 disasters that each cost at least $1 billion, according to new data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, surpassing the previous annual record of 22 events in 2020. This year’s billion-dollar disasters have caused 253 direct and indirect fatalities and have resulted in $57.6 billion in damage, NOAA data shows. That price tag does not yet include Hurricane Idalia. NOAA is still analyzing whether other events, including drought in the South and Midwest and Tropical Storm Hilary, which hit southern California this summer, may have surpassed the billion-dollar mark.

Sumner put together images and videos of such disasters in the US and around the world. He grouped them into categories. The heat in Phoenix had record deaths and saguaro cactus dying from heat stress. Smoke across the US from Canadian fires. Also fires in Lahaina, Sicily, and other places. Flooding in Southern California, Las Vegas, Hong Kong, Greece, Brazil, Turkey, and India. Blades started a report with:

A new report from the First Street Foundation released Wednesday has found that 39 million U.S. properties are overvalued because damage risks from climate change as a result of flooding, hurricanes, and wildfires “have yet to be reflected in the insurance premiums.” The largest percentage of those properties—60%—are coastal properties at risk from hurricanes, 30% are vulnerable to flooding, and 10% are in wildfire zones.

Previous reports had analyzed overvaluation due to one hazard, such as flooding. This is the first one to combine the effects of flooding, wildfires, and hurricane winds.

But, while Republicans in power can force government agencies not to account for climate-related risks to health, life, and finances while pushing policies designed to keep the fossil fuel industry alive until every last drop of oil, molecule of natural gas, and lump of coal are extracted, they cannot force insurance companies to ignore climate risk in pricing policies. As those risks grow, more and more insurers will walk away from high-risk areas to salvage their bottom lines. Allstate, American Family, Nationwide, Erie Insurance Group, and Berkshire Hathaway have stopped issuing policies and are raising premiums and deductibles in some regions because of climate change risks. “We’re in the business of pricing to risk,” Matt Mayrl, vice president of strategy, performance and partnerships at American Family Insurance, said in an interview with The Washington Post. “Sometimes your price can’t match your risk.”

One thing that would help is eliminate greenhouse gas emissions. The other is to block new construction in vulnerable areas. So what’s this nonsense about we can’t afford to mitigate climate change? With so many storms causing more than $1 billion in damage we can’t afford not to.