A problem if he wins, a problem if he doesn't

Terrence Heath notes the GOP is backing itself into a no-win situation with Ron Paul surging in the polls as Newt fades. The problem is because Paul's backers are of the True Believer variety who won't vote for anyone else.

Paul might also be helped by what Theo Anderson calls the new Confederacy. Those of us not in the new Confederacy are pragmatic, look for verification in science, and want solutions that work in the real world. Progressives invested in educational and governmental institutions that were built around how the world actually works.

But conservatives built parallel institutions to preserve The Truth (as they saw it). So the current battle isn't just about the size of government. It is whose definition of truth will the nation accept. One believes the Truth, one doesn't test it against experience. So, as Anderson says, "For these leaders and their followers, faith justifies–and verifies–itself. You don’t believe an idea because it’s true. It’s true because you believe it."

This is why, in the “real America” of Bachmann, Palin and Perry, it is self-evident that cutting taxes increases revenues; the founders were evangelical Christians; evolution is bunk; climate change is a hoax; the United States has the best healthcare system in the world; we can transform the Middle East into a garden of democracy; Kenya native Barack Obama has slashed the military budget; the war on drugs is worth the cost; and so on. These are all leaps of faith. The new Confederates flat-out reject or ignore any counter-evidence, because they have their own fount of truth.

Ron Paul appears to be Libertarian except on social issues important to the Fundies and just might appeal to enough of the new Confederacy to be a player in the upcoming primary season.

Heath's summary:

The problem for the GOP is that, if the party wants to have a hope of winning the White House in 2012, Paul can’t be the nominee. As much as his views might endear him to increasingly vocal and powerful (witness the debt deal debacle and the recent payroll tax cut fiasco) factions within the party, they would doom his candidacy in the general election. (At least, that’s what one hopes.)

The even bigger problem for the GOP is, that Paul won’t be he nominee. With no other candidate that has a base as passionate and loyal as Paul’s, even a second place spot in Iowa leaves him in a position to be a spoiler throughout the primaries and on in the general election. If he follows through on his threat not to endorse any of other GOP hopefuls, the mad doctor of the GOP just might slice a significant number off any potential margin of victory for the GOP.