Power without responsibility

Jim Burroway of Box Turtle Bulletin explores the political calculation of Uganda President Museveni as he decides whether to assent to the draconian anti-gay bill that Parliament passed.

Some countries said they would cut off aid to Uganda if the bill becomes law. That aid is about 20% of the budget. But Ugandans are so homophobic they are willing to forfeit that support.

Obama talked of strained relations. But Uganda is next to Rwanda, Congo, and Southern Sudan, all areas of unrest (to put it mildly). Uganda provides peacekeeping troops. Will Obama be willing to risk American national security by not having that small stabilizing influence?

There is also the political maneuvering as Museveni tries to sideline rivals for the next presidential election.

In this bill Museveni can exercise the power and avoid the responsibility. He didn't want it, Parliament approved it anyway. He asked scientists for advice and he can use their recommendation for cover. And since lawyers are ready to challenge the bill in various courts it could be tied up for a couple years. Even if the courts uphold it he can say they approved it, not him.

But Museveni may actually be at least ambivalent about the law. At Obama's apparent urging, he has asked the US gov't to work with the local scientists to answer or clarify a few key points in the report the scientists produced. Is he looking for a way out?

Then there is the curious matter that the press release put out by the National Resistance Movement about the scientist's report differs in key ways from the report itself. I'm not sure what the NRM is, so I don't know how this has influenced the proceedings.