No sight of a crest in the wave

I downloaded Michigan’s coronavirus data today as I’ve been doing weekly for a few months. The data is a snapshot, of course, and in most downloads there is revision to the last couple weeks of data because it takes a while for the state to attribute case and death data to the proper day. That’s why the data from ten days ago looks much higher than it did last week. The data for that time now shows the number of cases a day to have topped 1780, setting a record. The peak back at the start of April topped 1600, meaning the state is now 180 cases per day higher. The cases per day started climbing the second week of September after being relatively flat since mid June. After the beginning of October the cases per day jumped significantly and is rising. The number of deaths per day remains low, much lower than the peak in April when we hit 170. However deaths per day had been hitting peaks of about 13-14 in mid September and is now hitting peaks of 20-21. Mark Sumner of Daily Kos reviewed the history of the virus in America. In the recent history he reported the peak for the week has gone up by about 10,000 for several weeks. The good news is this is linear, not exponential growth. The bad news …

But the problem this time is that it’s hard to see just why there should be any kind of crest, short of an absolute tsunami.

That’s because he doesn’t see any state doing anything different than what they were doing six weeks ago when this rise in cases began. Kelly Hayes of Truthout encourages creating a personal safety plan. The reason is to avoid freezing up in a crisis. Here’s a bare outline of her suggestions. * First, what is a crisis for you? There are so many things hitting us right now it can all blur together in a big noise. So what are you specifically afraid or upset about? The virus? Right-wing violence? Mass power outages? Severe weather make worse by climate change? Something else? List as many things as you want. * Beside each thing you fear start listing what you can do about it. If the fear is a power outage what do you want nearby? If the best option is to flee your home what do you need to take? If you had to stay inside for a long time, what do you need? How would you get information about what is happening? Who do yo need to contact? * What supplies do you need to make your plans happen? A new flashlight? A travel bag? Non-perishable food? * Expand your thinking into the broader community. How can you help others? Who will be facing an injustice, such as being incarcerated during a pandemic or not having a home during a climate catastrophe? Who would be left behind? In this case you may find you need to know more. * Share your fears and plans with others to refine it. Help them refine their plan. What help do you need, such as someone to check in on you? * Expand outward again. How might you join or create a mutual aid pod? This is defined as networks of people practicing reciprocal care, people who are committed to each other’s well being. Is this your neighbors? Your church? Extended family or friends? It may not work if this mutual aid pod includes people who live far apart. This may involve meeting and talking to people who are currently strangers. Can you start talking now? Hayes concludes:

It’s okay to be afraid, but don’t make fear your home. As my friend Mariame Kaba often says, “Hope is a discipline.” So let’s be disciplined, and sew seeds of hope where despair might otherwise grow. Let’s defend the parts of ourselves that help us care for other people, and for ourselves.