Yeah? You and what army?

A week has passed since I last wrote about Ukraine. Kos of Daily Kos wrote about Russia’s shrinking ambitions. Back in March Russia’s original goal was to head southwest of Kharkiv and north from Kherson, encircling a huge chunk of eastern Ukraine. The goal in April was to capture about half that. The goal for May cut the April goal in half. And the territorial goal for June is quite small. Kos explains that even this small goal will be a stretch for Russia. Kos concluded:

Russia’s slow pace of advance now ensures this war will last well into this year (and likely longer), allowing time for a full Ukrainian transition to NATO-standard weapons. Indeed, Ukraine General Staff is arguing they can be fully transitioned by the end of summer. That may be little consolation to those who would rather see peace break out, global food deliveries reestablished, an end to needless death, and money spent on more fruitful endeavors than weaponry. But Vladimir Putin cannot retreat now without delivering the glorious (and easy) victory he promised his nation, and Ukraine sees no reason to surrender given Russia’s sorry battlefield performance. It really believes (and I agree) that with the right gear, it can recapture everything lost to Russia since 2014, including the entirety of Donbas and Crimea. And as long as the Ukrainian people are prepared to make that sacrifice (and they appear so), it makes perfect sense for the West to help it achieve its goals.

I had written about Russia attempting to cross the same point of the Siverskyi Donets River and failing twice. Kos wrote: Make that three times.

So Russia just lost two BTGs worth of troops attempting to make the same compromised river crossing three times. Can you imagine the drone operator calling it in? Drone operator: “Another crossing!” Artillery fire direction: “S---! What are the coordinates?” Drone operator: “Uh, same ones!” Artillery fire direction: “Ha! Okay, I really thought you were kidding the second time! That was crazy. But seriously, what are the new coordinates?”

In a third post Kos reported on what Ukraine appears to be doing next. Ukraine could work to take Vovcchansk, a town near the Russian border with a primary rail line from Russia. A second option would be Kupiansk where a few rail lines meet. Either could do significant damage to the supply lines to Izyum, a primary Russian attack point. Or, it appears, Ukraine could directly attack the Russian troops around Izyum.

Now, with Russia already at its limits, Ukraine is taking direct aim at the largest concentration of Russian forces in Ukraine. Guys, 20-25% of Russia’s entire Army is in that pocket. Something big is happening. I mean big, as in war-altering. We were looking at Izyum’s supply hubs in Kupiansk and Vochansk. Ukraine is going straight for the jugular instead.

Kos included a tweet from Visegrád:

Massive forest fires raging in the Tyumen region in Russia right now. The army used to play an important role in helping the firefighters to put these out but they are nowhere to be found at the moment.

In a fourth post Kos commented on how important American artillery was in helping Ukraine, including smashing the three Russian attempted river crossings. At the bottom of the post Kos added this update:

The separatist city of Donetsk is having serious problems with their drinking water supply. But they can’t do anything about it because they’ve conscripted the people who used to maintain it.

Mark Sumner of Kos reported that it appears that Ukraine has crossed the river. One of the bridges that had been blown up wasn’t all that damaged and Ukraine was able to repair and use it. That allows Ukraine to attack the supply lines into Izyum. In a fifth post Kos reviewed the state of the war. Then ... A common response to a meaningless threat is the reply, “Yeah? You and what army?” That taunt takes on a different meaning when used in response to the threats Russia has been making lately. Russia has threatened... * Kyrgyzstan for showing signs of wanting to withdraw from the Eurasian Economic Union (the Russia centered counterpart to the EU). * Finland and Sweden for applying to join NATO. * Poland for who knows why. * Iceland for organizing flights to transport military equipment from eastern Europe to Ukraine. * The UK for being a part of NATO (I think) though this could be serious because nukes are mentioned in the threat. * The Eurovision Song Contest for excluding them. Minna Ålander wrote a thread saying Finland is ready to handle whatever Russia might do to them. Cut electricity? Already close to self-sufficient. Cut gas? What they get from Russia is only about 5%. Station troops on Russia’s border? What troops? In a post from today Sumner reported that Russia is making an advance here and there, close to ready to take two key cities. But he also included a list of ten villages that on Tuesday Russia attempted to take and failed.

But Russian military leaders still have one ace up their sleeve. Which is: They don’t give a f##k about how many men they lose in the field. Repeating an action that resulted in failure may be one definition of insanity. It’s also Russia’s underlying military tactic. And in two key locations, that tactic is bringing Russia close to capturing key objectives.

Kos discussed tankies.

You’ve seen tankies around. They’re the ones who believe that all the world’s evils are the product of imperialism and the only country capable of imperialism is the United States. ... The pejorative term “tankie” comes from American leftists who defended the violent Soviet crackdown of the 1956 Hungarian uprising, an uprising crushed by tanks. They were our allies during the Iraq War, so it may come as a shock seeing them become pathetic apologists for Vladimir Putin’s ambitions to reconstitute the Soviet empire. ... In the tankie worldview, no one has agency except the United States. Poland and Slovakia and Romania and Bulgaria didn’t have the ability or right to choose to join NATO. Neither do Finland and Sweden. These are all imperialist provocations and machinations by the American empire. What other option did Russia have but to defend its borders by, uh, explicitly advocating for its own empire?

Kos quoted tweets from Max Blumenthal, Glenn Greenwald, Michael Tracey, and Noam Chomsky to show the way tankies think. Kos concluded:

But nothing galls more than their utter disregard for the choices of free nations to decide their own destiny. They have been so impacted by America’s real foreign policy sins that they have lost the ability to understand that the world is a complex place, and sometimes, other people get a say in their own affairs. And sometimes, America is on the right side.

Thee has been a lot of news of Republican legislatures make the lives of trans people difficult to the point of many considering fleeing to new homes in more welcoming states. Marissa Higgins of Kos reported two weeks ago that that in spite of that oppression 19 legislatures are in the process of passing law saying they are refuge states for LGBTQ people. Since one of these states is Michigan I have doubts it will pass here and in some of the other states. Even so, I’m glad the concept is out there. Higgins reminds us that a family may have a lot of reasons to stay in a city or state even as rights are taken away and oppression increases. Bert Johnson of NPR reported those new laws restricting trans and gay rights are prompting a lot of LGBTQ people to run for various levels of government. The Palm Beach County Human Rights Council and the AIDS Healthecare Foundation created a rainbow mural on a city intersection as a memorial to the 2016 Pulse Nightclub massacre in Orlando. Two days later a 19 year old in a pickup with a nasty guy flag decided just being part of a noisy vehicle parade to honor their nasty hero wasn’t enough so he sped up, then skidded through the mural, damaging it. And someone caught the incident with their phone, including the license tags. The perpetrator went before county Judge Scott Suskauer expressing remorse, saying he was trying to fit in (but be careful which crowd you want to fit in with!). He is to pay restitution, do volunteer at an LGBTQ organization, and to write a 25 page essay. That essay is to include research on the 49 victims of the Pulse shooting plus a summary of why people are so hateful and why people lash out at the gay community. I like this judge for choosing reconciliation over punishment. In another post from two weeks ago the Panhandle Patriots of Idaho plan to show up next month in Coeur d’Alene to confront the Pride event. They say good people need to stand up and add to that a lot of religious nonsense. Yes, the intent is to intimidate people gathering for a safe space. Zander Moricz is the youngest public plaintiff in a lawsuit against Florida’s new “Don’t Say Gay” law. Zander is the first LGBTQ class president at their school. When they organized a protest of the law the school administration told them to shut it down. They held it anyway and it was the county’s largest protest. The administration then told them if their graduation speech referenced this activism the microphone would be cut and the ceremony halted. There is a plan to fight back – they have 10,000 Say Gay stickers for seniors across Florida to wear as they cross the stage during their ceremonies. They may be done with high school, but not the fight. One of the complaints of gender affirming health care for trans kids is what if the kid really isn’t trans? Higgins reported the Trans Youth Project with Princeton University did a study on the issue. The study followed 317 trans youth. The participants did some level of social transitioning, usually around age 6 or 7. That means they begin to live as their target gender – new pronouns, new clothes and haircut, maybe even a new name. Only 6% decided they weren’t trans and returned to their birth gender. The rest decide a more complete transition is what they want. That means taking puberty blockers to give them time make sure, then taking hormones to begin the process of physically transitioning. There are a few things anti-trans people get wrong. They assume (or at least stir up hysteria over) any kind of transitioning requires irreversible surgery the child will regret. But the child usually has a few years to live with the target gender. Puberty blockers only delay puberty and cause no harm. And by then 94% are sure and the other 6% have already backed out. Libs of TikTok posted a video with the caption, “A drag queen was crowned prom king in an Indiana high school.” Leah McElrath added:

I unironically love this. Kids in Indiana said FU to tradition gender norm restrictions. Right-wingers are pathetic—and this account targeting this teenager like this endangers him and his school.