Did Vladimir Putin go to war with Ukraine and lose Russia?

My Sunday movie was The Death and Life of Marsha P. Johnson, a 2017 documentary on Netflix. I knew of Marsha and had seen pictures of her. I could recognize her smile and flowery hat from her most famous photo. I knew she was transgender (known as transvestite at the time) and a veteran of the Stonewall riot in 1969. And that was about it. The movie follows Victoria, a volunteer at the Anti-Violence Project in New York. It is an agency that assists those who are victims of LGBTQ hate crimes. Victoria has reopened the case of Marsha’s death in 1992. Marsha was pulled from the Hudson River. The cops declared it a suicide and closed the case. Of course, the LGBTQ community was not satisfied with that and demanded the cops do their job. Now 25 years later Victoria is trying to learn more. She interviews people who knew Marsha. She tries to figure out the last time Marsha was seen alive and by who. She calls retired policemen who refuse to talk. Along the way we, of course, get to see what Marsha was like through video clips and photos. She was known as the queen of Christopher Street. We also learn about Sylvia Rivera, also trans and one of Marsha’s friends. I hadn’t heard about Sylvia before. She was also an activist and after a while became disillusioned by the gay liberation movement because so many times the trans people were out in front of the fight, yet the rest of the community seemed to turn against them. Even so many people say they owe their liberation to Sylvia. This is a glimpse into our history. The hate crimes, especially the murder of trans people, and the panic defense. The indifference and the brutality of cops. That many of the gay bars in NYC were run by the Mafia and frequently demanded to be paid off. Did they also run and siphon money from the early pride parades? At one point a retired cop (I think) tells Victoria to leave the investigations to professional investigators. I very much wanted her to retort that she’s doing it because the professional investigators dropped the case. The Anti-Violence Project faces a choice. How much of their limited resources should be put into a case 25 years old, a case of a movement icon which has a great deal of visibility, compared to a death that happened last weekend. And, alas, six years after the movie was made, are still happening. This is a fascinating story and well told. I recommend it. In my most recent post, which was last Saturday, I of course talked about the coup/rebellion/putsch in Russia. Yet that evening my friend and debate partner replied in his friendly and helpful manner, “Your summary misses a lot, including the depth of the crisis.” This little excerpt might sound a bit more harsh than it does in context. Of course I missed a lot. I had a limited amount of time to read what was available by then (the command to stop the coup had happened only a few hours before) and a limited amount of time to write. I debated whether to write about it Saturday evening or to write about something else and save this story for another day. I chose to post on Saturday even though the story was incomplete. My friend suggested I go to cnn.com for their 80+ reports on the events. Thanks, dear friend, but that would take a lot of time, more than I want to spend on it, even if it is the start of the story of the year. With another three days for the story to unfold there is more for me to discuss, as much as I can in the time I have. And some of the stuff in my browser tabs that seemed so insightful on Sunday seem rather silly today. Leah McElrath tweeted a thread last Friday as the Russian events began to unfold. She suggested this might strengthen Putin in a way similar to a coup attempt (or a faked coup) strengthened Erdogan of Turkey a few years ago. Putin coming out stronger seems unlikely now. This thread also includes a tweet from Velina Tchakarova who lists countries in Africa being looted by the Wagner group, the mercenary force Prigozhin controls. On Saturday, referring to Africa again, McElrath linked to Wagner atrocities and wrote, “Don’t romanticize Wagner just because you hate Putin.” On Monday McElrath tweeted:

A challenge for most Westerners trying to understand Russia (myself included) is we tend to go back and forth between seeing Putin as either all powerful or desperately weak. Both of those views are forms of confirmation bias in response to propaganda and incomplete information. In large part due to Cold War propaganda, Americans are conditioned to think of Russia as having extensive power. But, unlike China and India, Russia is a relatively minor economy, and China and India have nuclear weapons like Russia does (just not as many)

. In my post on Saturday I noted that the Wagner group got close to Moscow, then turned back. RO37 of the Daily Kos community discusses why that might have happened. The closer the Wagner troops (and there were maybe 10,000 of them) got to Moscow the stronger the attacks became. While Wagner personnel may not have shed blood, there were a few helicopters and a plane downed by these troops and people in those crews died. So why did Prigozhin tell them to turn back? Did he lose his nerve? If he was the type who could lose his nerve he would have not set out from Ukraine. Perhaps he expected help from the oligarchs and senior Army officials he didn’t get. That would mean if he replaced Putin he would rule a hostile nation. Perhaps he recognized he simply didn’t have the military capability to capture Moscow. RO37 mentioned two previous coups that failed, together they show this could go either way. The 1917 Kornilov Affair was a coup that failed but weakened the Russian provisional government that, several months later, enabled Lenin to take over. In 1944 a plot to blow up Hitler failed. He survived by pure luck. His purge executed 4980 people and his strength was unchanged. In a post from early afternoon on Monday Mark Sumner of Kos wrote a pretty good summary. On Saturday evening Prigozhin got in a car, presumably heading to Belarus as part of a deal Belarus president Lukashenko brokered between Progozhin and Putin. Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu is still there, though his ouster was one of Prigozhin’s demands. Putin had said he would charge Progozhin and Wagner men with crimes, then he said he wouldn't, then he would, and I think the last word was he wouldn't.

Maybe Putin will run down to Rostov, pump the flesh, and reassure the public that he’s got this. Maybe Wagner forces will really be allowed to go home, relocated to Minsk, or to head off for more raping and pillaging in Africa without being punished for their actions over the weekend. Maybe Russia will find some way to keep their invasion of Ukraine viable. All of that seems very, very improbable. But then, so does every moment of the action that played out in the 24 hours that started before dawn on Saturday.

What happens next to the Wagner soldiers is unknown and the options don’t seem to make a lot of sense. Become a part of the Russian military (which can be brutal against their own) where they would be bottom-rung and objects of scorn and perhaps sent to battle without weapons? Return to camps where they complained about not getting enough supplies and now have even less chance of that? Be allowed to go home? Go to Africa? But if Wagner soldiers leave Russia loses 25K experienced troops. Sumner wonders about the Russian military. Yes, there were soldiers defending Moscow, but the Wagner caravan that headed to Moscow passed three major military installations, all of which stayed in their barracks. And some from smaller bases, including guards at Rostov, posted on social media they were all in with Progozhin. As for Putin, a lot of people will be very surprised if he’s still running Russia in six months. Also, all the statements about 90% of Russia’s military being in Ukraine appears to be true. Which means in this weakened state how long can the war in Ukraine be sustained? How hollow is the Russian federation? And will Russian troops return home to point guns at each other?

Did Vladimir Putin go to war with Ukraine and lose Russia? Not just yet. But that may well be where things are going. Soon.

On Monday host Andrea Chalupa posted a short Gaslit Nation episode (which may be available only to donors.) that discusses the Russian coup attempt. It’s major points: Prigozhin is being handled gently (exile, not death) because his Wagner group’s looting of Africa is paying for the war. Putin’s days are numbered. He is weak, perhaps in poor health, and likely having delusions at least partly because he is in an information bubble. What comes next is a civil war amongst the oligarchs. Rostov was the “A” team of Russia’s military command, running the war in southern Ukraine. If Progozhin could take it over so easily that is an indication of how good the A team is. Gaslit Nation recorded an interview with a Russian expert today. That should post soon. Me getting around to listening to it could take longer. Of course there were a lot of cartoons created in the last few days. Here are a couple of them. It’s been a long while since I’ve seen ads for products that converts a wimp to a strongman in just days. I don’t see them because I get only one magazine and it doesn’t have these sorts of ads. Ted Littleford tweeted a cartoon mimicking one of those ads with the figures under “Before” and “After” switched. Michael Martin tweeted a cartoon of Putin hiding behind a soldier saying into a phone, “I know, I know, Donald. I promised to help you again with your campaign. Can I call you right back? I am a little busy right now.” Yesterday evening Sumner posted a meanwhile in Ukraine update. The Ukraine Army has kept to the task. The biggest change is that they have crossed the Dnipro River near Kherson to establish a position on the side controlled by Russia. One proposed reason why Russia had blown the dam a few weeks ago was to keep Ukraine from crossing the flood zone. And, using barges, that’s what Ukraine did. Because of that flood Russia had moved back and how many Russians are still in the area is unknown. There are also a few other small successes.