The strongest threat, the weakest moment

I first learned about the “coup” in Russia last evening. I usually read through Leah McElrath’s Twitter feed after posting to my blog and that was full of tweets of something going on in Rostov. I didn’t save any of the tweets because I would need too many to tell a coherent story. Even so, McElrath said that Putin or Prigozhin or both would come out stronger for it. This morning I was able to read a post by Kos of Daily Kos with a large number of updates, some from Kos, some from Mark Sumner. It was still a bit fragmented as expected when covering a story as it happens (and doing it on the other side of the world). So here is a summary, as near as I can make out. Bakhmut was captured by the Wagner group, whose CEO is Prigozhin. As that capture was being completed (and somewhat before) Prigozhin started verbally sparring with the head of the Russian military. That escalated to Progozhin declaring Russia’s reasons for the Ukraine invasion were bogus. Then he declared Russian forces had sent missiles into his own camps. And then he talked like he was leading a coup. Or at least an attack on the military leadership. He and his forces attacked the Russian military headquarters in Rostov. It’s a logistical hub near the Azov Sea not far from the southeast corner of Ukraine. And he captured the headquarters with very little effort – so little civilians felt comfortable filming it – and not protesting it. Kos asked “The big question is how much of this is real, and how much is theater.” In an update Kos noted, “Wagner just conquered Russia’s 10th largest city in hours, population 1 million, after taking 9 months to take Ukraine’s 58th largest city.” Conquering “the city” is not the right way to say it. Wagner occupied key government and military buildings. There wasn’t much Wagner presence outside of the area around those buildings. Putin eventually responded, saying whoever is doing this will be brutally punished. At about noon today Sumner posted again. As part of it he explained who the players are. Then he went on to describe while Progozhin installed himself in the Rostov headquarters a large convoy of his troops headed north and took the military facilities in Voronezh (somewhere in those facilities may be nuclear warheads). Then they went on towards Moscow. RO37 of the Kos community also wrote an explainer of who the players are and why certain aspects are of importance. He mentioned that Rostov is the main hub for supplying the Russian Army everywhere south of Donetsk. So holding the military headquarters there essentially holds half the Russian Army hostage. A big reason why Progozhin and his Wagner group got as far as they did was because the size of the Russian military not already in Ukraine is about the same size of this Wagner group, both about 25,000. And many in the Russian Army refused to fight their countrymen. Rostov to Moscow is about 540 miles. The Wagner group made it to about 130 miles from Moscow. Then Prigozhin, still in Rostov, decided he had made a pretty good point without any of his troops losing blood. Since the troops around Moscow had been mobilized it looked like this adventure could not be kept blood free. So he called it off. In late afternoon news Scott Detrow of NPR talked to Michael McFaul, a former US ambassador to Russia. Even though the threat to Putin is gone, the attempt and the aftermath show how weak Putin has become. Putin had called Prigozhin a traitor on national television and called for brutal punishment. Yet, a few hours later Prigozhin is allowed to retire to Belarus and Putin says things are fine. Prigozhin may now be too much of a populist figure to “retire” for long. Unless someone in Belarus attacks him. As for the Wagner troops they will be integrated into the Russian Army. McFaul thinks this may be a morale disaster. The troops that attacked your headquarters and your country are now your colleagues? That may depend on how much you cheered what they did. McFaul concluded:

Without question, it's the weakest moment of his presidency. It's the strongest threat to him. And it undercuts the image of Putin the great, Putin the powerful, Putin supported by everyone. He's not supported by everyone inside Russia.