Jesus was a community organizer.
Pontius Pilate was a governor.
I wrote recently about how we shouldn't trust the polls in this election. Here's more on that idea.
The first thing to look at is whether or not the poll tries to ask its questions of the same number of Democrats, GOPs, and Indies. This probably goes under the heading of party identification numbers, though doing a web search on those terms doesn't bring up anything useful. I'm not sure why they do it this way. I suppose one could read the fine print of a poll, something the media rarely mentions.
If I understand it right, many polls try to get opinions from 33% Dem, 34% Indie, 33% GOP (for instance). Yet, a Gallup poll from a couple days ago says 30% of respondents identified as GOP and 35% identified as Dem. The news story notes the GOP percentage has increased since the GOP convention.
Another source says the Dems may have as much as a 20% spread in the way voters identify themselves. Need more? Look at the data from the 28 states that require you to declare Dem or GOP when you register to vote. Dems have gained 2 million voters. GOP have lost 0.34 million. With perhaps a 20% spread, why to pollsters insist on asking the same number of Dem and GOP voters? A big question.
That same link above goes into detail for data of several states. I'll wade into it only for Ohio. Kerry lost the state in 2004 by 120K votes. There are 750K new voters 18-22 years old (they couldn't vote in 2004). Factor in how much the youth are energized -- 50% are likely to vote -- and that about 60% of those are for Obama and you now have 75K votes for Obama that Kerry didn't get. There are 860K black voters in Ohio, 380K (44%) voted in 2004. It is expected that black turnout will be much higher (perhaps 64%) with a higher percentage going for Obama than went for Kerry. That gives Obama another 193K votes. Also in the mix (though not with hard numbers) is that most deaths in America are people over 65, the demographic that is most solid for McCain.
Though maybe not so important in Ohio, the Latino vote is going decidedly for Obama. That affects Arizona and Colorado.
Others aren't as convinced with this assessment of the youth vote. Even if Obama gets 60% of the new young voters it may not make a difference. The youth vote also set records in 2004 but the white geezer vote also increased. There are reasons to think this year might be different. The closely contested Dem primary brought out a huge bump in youth voters. There was an increase in the youth vote in 2006 compared to 2002, making a difference in a few key races. There has been a big increase in registrations and even if not all actually vote an increase in registration correlates to an increase in voting. The internet based get-out-the-vote efforts are much more sophisticated than in previous cycles. However, whether Obama wins or loses, how can the result be contributed to the actions of one particular group?
What to hope for: an edge larger than efforts to tamper with the vote.
And speaking of tampering…
Macomb County in Michigan stretches from the Detroit border into the farm country at the root of Michigan's Thumb. The south end of the county includes the suburb of Warren, I believe now the 3rd largest city in Michigan (sorry, Flint), never all that wealthy, and hit hard by GM's troubles and the housing foreclosure mess (county foreclosure rate is in the top 3% in the nation). The Thumb is highly GOP, known to have been breeding grounds of white supremacist militias. During the last redistricting in 2002 state legislature and congressional districts were drawn to be about 45% Democrats and 55% GOP (as was my US House district in western Wayne County). This is now a highly contested county.
To nudge things in their favor the county GOP party has armed themselves with lists of foreclosed homes with the intent to challenge the right to vote if anyone claims to live in one of those houses. It is a phony reason for the challenge because some people still live in the homes while the bank sorts things out and maybe works up a refinance deal, and also because you can still vote based on an old residence if you don't have time to register a new address before the election. Of course, it is the poor people of Warren, most likely to vote for Obama, who will be the most challenged.
I've been challenged a couple times. The first wasn't for voting, but working outside a polling place against the Mich. marriage protection amendment in 2004. Michigan law says that I needed to stay 100 feet away from the entrance (from the building? the school cafeteria?). A man challenged me, saying shouldn't be there and if I didn't leave he would call the police. I replied, "If you feel you need to, go ahead." He didn't. I've heard that the GOP controlled Mich. Senate wants to change that distance to 500 feet, which will confine campaigners to the far side of the street, unable to interact with anyone between car and voting machine. I don't much like people handing stuff to me on the way in, but I can deal with that by keeping hands in pockets.
The second challenge was in 2007. I had voted absentee in the primary and the city had mistakenly sent me an absentee ballot for the general election. I went to my precinct because Mich. law says if I can show up at the polls I must and cannot vote absentee. They said that since I had been issued an absentee ballot I couldn't vote live. A call to the main office cleared things up -- they said my absentee ballot had not yet been used and if it was turned in it would be thrown out. I know that if it happens this year (the clerk insists it shouldn't) I take the absentee ballot with me when I go to vote.
The second case only required a bit of persistence, everyone kept a friendly demeanor. The guy in the first case tried intimidation, but it didn't work on me. However, someone less informed about their voting rights facing someone well schooled in how to look and act intimidating might easily turn tail, especially if poll workers have a GOP bent and don't come to the rescue.
With 50 days notice of this tactic it quite possible that some Dem community organizers will be able to alert voters about their rights and the possibility of being challenged.
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