Painted into a corner

According to Lou Dubose of the Washington Spectator (alas, web articles for subscribers only) the Republican Party doesn't have much of a future. Couldn't happen to a more deserving bunch. Dubose lays it out in terms of demographics:

* Obama made inroads into Evangelicals, turning several red states to blue.
* Ethnic minorities have increased their share of the electorate, now 25%, and Bush and Katrina chased them away from the GOP.
* Youth went decisively for Obama. This year there were 48 million voters born after 1972; by 2016 that will be 80 million. They are offended by the Right's claim to moral authority.
* Working class voters who loved Palin have fallen by 15% over the last 30 years.
* By 2024, secular Americans (those who don't attend church) will be 45% of adults.
* The fervent Evangelicals are only 25% of the electorate.

So the GOP has a choice: Reach out to youth and suburbanites and risk alienating Evangelicals, or more closely align themselves with Evangelicals and alienate the demographics of the future. Rove's "permanent political realignment" has happened. The GOP is locked with Southern Evangelicals, which had been the core of Nixon's Southern Strategy 40 years ago. Their best hope now is a disastrous Obama presidency.