Don't be afraid to lose on the way to victory

I recently wrote about the reasons why some gay organizations in Calif. say it is better to wait until 2012 before attempting to repeal the gay marriage ban. The National Gay and Lesbian Task Force has come down on the side of waiting, giving much better reasons than listed in my previous post:

* Build a strong majority before the vote. It is easier to win while defending a majority than trying to build a majority in the heat of the campaign.

* Before attempting a vote, demonstrate a proven ability to change people's minds.

* Develop persuasive messages that can withstand the opposition's vigorous campaign.

* Before the attempt, prove that a campaign infrastructure is in place and volunteers are recruited.

Commenters, of course, have a few things to say:

* Split the campaign infrastructure from all other candidates and issues so our cause isn't held hostage to a candidate's position or a party's lack of spine. Note to my friend and debate partner -- yes it is good to have allies in other progressive causes (such as women's rights), but our cause suffers when we try to jump on the coattails of a promising candidate (such as Obama).

* The best persuasive message is living an out life.

* It's annoying to hear gay groups become impatient with Obama's speed in taking on our issues, yet to tell us to be patient and wait until 2012.

In a separate post, a responder to NGLTF explains why he doesn't agree:

* We must keep fighting if simply to keep own hearts healthy. Waiting will erode us from the inside.

* We must keep fighting to keep our inequalities before the public.

* The court opinion that allowed the marriage ban to stand essentially said that Equal Protection is not a core concept, that it can be easily thrown out. We must show that we noticed that and do not agree.

* Don't campaign until we're sure to win? That's working from fear. Don't be afraid to lose 2010 on the way to 2012. Our loss in 2008 prompted gains in New England. A loss will keep the issue alive.

* Discrimination causes death. While we wait, people die.

There are also many replies to this position:

* Don't confuse the benefits of winning with a strategy for winning.

* Living an out life isn't that much of a help -- half of those who voted against us knew a gay person. The moveable middle is only about 5% of voters. Anti-gay voters are consistently more motivated than our friends. They won't run out of money any time soon. Even our friends will vote against us if they become convinced our marriage hurts theirs.

* A campaign in 2010 will motivate volunteers now. A campaign in 2012 will leave potential volunteers doing nothing until 2011.