Calculating our chances in Maine

Back in early April I wrote about an analysis to predict when each state will get gay marriage. The prediction was that Maine would get it this year. And it might -- polls show the referendum to ban gay marriage is behind, but too close to allow us to rest in our efforts.

The looming vote in Maine prompted Nate Silver to revisit his calculations. The determining factor if the original predictions was the religiosity of voters in the state. Now Nate thinks another factor should be considered. It is:

* Does the measure also ban civil unions? That made a difference in last year's Arizona vote. Leaving off civil unions makes a ban more likely.

Now for particulars in Maine's case:

* Maine is pretty low in religious voters, with only 46% claiming religion as important (that number for Calif. is 57%).

* It is a standalone initiative in an off-year election. The get-out-the-vote drive will be crucial.

* Maine is a fairly liberal state. The Fundie "base" is much smaller than in other states.

* The Maine legislature approved gay marriage. It wasn't imposed by the courts, meaning no activist judges to campaign against.

* This referendum is in response to the law passed by the legislature, it was not a pre-emptive strike (meaning the gay side knew it was coming).

* The referendum isn't a constitutional amendment.

The result? Too close to call.

Back to those April predictions, it said several other states would have gay marriage by the end of this year:

Rhode Island -- rather quiet
Nevada -- barely got civil unions
Washington -- fighting to keep expanded civil unions
Alaska -- ?
New York -- some say there will be a vote in the Assembly by the end of the year, some disagree
Oregon -- ?

However, we might hear from New Jersey ahead of its predicted passage 2010 and DC (no prediction) looks like it will get gay marriage by Thanksgiving, subject to being overturned by Congress. And a gay marriage bill was just introduced in Illinois (predicted for 2012).