Sky McCracken, a District Superintendent for the United Methodist Church in Tennessee, wrote an article for the United Methodist Reporter discussing "hard truths" about the future of the denomination. It was written last June, after General Conference. I just found a link to it while cleaning out my email inbox. I won't go through all six of his truths, only the first one.
McCracken says changing the denomination stance on homosexuality won't stop loss of membership. The Southern Baptist Convention, loudly anti-gay, is losing members. The Episcopal Church, loudly pro-gay, is also losing members.
Alas, he doesn't supply details of membership loss, and two data points aren't enough to build a statistically valid case.
The issue of homosexuality could still be a big part of the decline. One commenter points out he left the church because of its stance on gays. So the issue could well be that the Christian church as a whole has been so loud and so negative of gay people it affects all denominations no matter their stance on gays. I had previously reported on the high percentage (somewhere in the 90s) of non-Christians who view the church as a whole as anti-gay (though I can't find the post now). So many people seeing the Christian church negatively would affect all denominations, no matter their statements.
Improving the official positions on gays may not improve the fortunes of the UMC. The damage, done by the Christian church as a whole, may have already had its effect and can't be reversed.
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