End of Pasta?

Climate change and global warming a little too abstract to nudge your conscience? Mark Hertsgaard wrote an article for Newsweek discussing what global warming is likely to do to important foods in our food supply. In particular, he examines the variety of wheat most prized for making pasta. Think macaroni and cheese consumed by American kids, lasagna and its cousins eaten by Italians, and the mounds of noodles slurped by the Chinese.

Three grains -- wheat, corn, and rice -- account for most of the food humans consume. All three are already suffering from climate change, but wheat stands to fare the worst in the years ahead, for it is the grain most vulnerable to high temperatures.

Wheat, especially durum wheat for pasta, thrives in a particular climate. Not too wet, not too dry, and not too hot. As any of those increase, yield drops. And 2012 was "the hottest July in U.S. history and the worse drought in 50 years." Yields plummeted and prices soared. Wheat production might decline 25% as the world warms up.

Hertsgaard went off to North Dakota, a great place to grow durum. It also does quite well across the border in the Canadian prairie. Some farmers are worried, others don't believe climate change is real.

So what if North Dakota gets too hot? Just move production farther north. Already, the durum zone is shifting -- to coincide with a top-notch shale oil deposit. Guess which wins.

Moving production north doesn't help the farmer in India, another wheat-growing region. He eats what grows on the land he owns. No harvest, no eating.

Another aspect of farming is soil quality. Soil in a cooler climate is likely to be of a poorer quality. In addition, ask any French wine maker about the importance of soil in the final product.

What about creating heat-resistant varieties of wheat? They're working on it, but they may not appear in time.

Some farmers are addressing the issue. Current big-farm agriculture contributes to climate change through hefty use of fertilizer (made from oil) and fuels to run the equipment. It also tends to plant one crop, which means the chances of harvesting it go down as climate driven storms, pests, and diseases increase.

Some farmers are considering other methods, such as no-till techniques and using a cover crop to shade the soil and tender shoots. There are a variety of sustainable methods that can be used.

Pasta won't suddenly disappear. But in years of bad harvest, the cost of pasta will jump. Or we could get serious about doing something to reduce the effects of climate change.

The article has a sidebar of other foods at risk from climate chain. At the top of the list: chocolate. That's something to contemplate. Also on the list are strawberries, coffee (another attention-getter), beer and wine, trout and salmon, and maple syrup.