Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Reduced to a publicity stunt?

As expected, Jason Collins' announcement that he is gay and plays in pro team sports has generated a storm of media coverage. Even the prez. and first lady got into the act. I couldn't possibly link to all the stories, so won't try. There is, however, one that is worth sharing -- Nate Silver's analysis of whether Collins will continue to play.

Collins plays basketball. The season just ended. Collins is a free agent. At the age of 34 what are the chances of him being signed by any team (even ignoring the gay angle)?

Silver looked at other NBA players ages 33-35 with stats similar to Collins. The sample size is, alas, small. Even so, 61% of them played in the NBA in the following season. Rather decent odds for Collins, but far from a guarantee of a job.

Silver adds a word of caution. If Collins isn't signed will people see it's because he's gay and claim homophobia? If he is signed will people see it as a publicity stunt -- hey, we have a gay player?

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