I believe in evidence

In response to my writing yesterday about Senator Cornyn and his idiotic views on modeling, my friend and debate partner replied:

Senator Cornyn fails to understand that every single concept and understanding in his brain is in fact a model... we never have complete knowledge of anything, only models. And his model of the scientific method is highly faulty. Making assumptions (hypotheses), testing them via data and reasoning, examining the results vs reality and then evaluating the hypotheses accordingly -- that's exactly the scientific method. Well, ok... that's my model of the scientific method.

The quote of the day fits right in with that:

Don't you believe in flying saucers, they ask me? Don't you believe in telepathy?—in ancient astronauts?—in the Bermuda triangle?—in life after death? ‘No,’ I reply. ‘No, no, no, no, and again no.’ One person recently, goaded into desperation by the litany of unrelieved negation, burst out ‘Don't you believe in anything?’ ‘Yes,’ I said. ‘I believe in evidence. I believe in observation, measurement, and reasoning, confirmed by independent observers. I'll believe anything, no matter how wild and ridiculous, if there is evidence for it. The wilder and more ridiculous something is, however, the firmer and more solid the evidence will have to be’.
~~Isaac Asimov, The Roving Mind, 1983

I mentioned yesterday that the nasty guy was trying to get business leaders to buy into his plan to reopen the economy by May 1. There is now a business council with leaders across a wide number of industries. But they’re not wiling to be the scapegoats. To support his plan to reopen they say he must vastly increase testing. Which for two months the nasty guy has been making sure doesn’t go well.

As for all that required testing. One way to do it is to say it’s been done. Like announcing numbers of tests a lot higher than actual. As in: lie. Which the nasty guy is very good at. Just keep in mind if testing was sufficient hospitals would see a reduction in admissions and morgues would see a lot fewer dead.

Then there’s the problem that test equipment is hard to get.

The nasty guy knows how to threaten. He threatened any state that doesn’t reopen with a “close-down” – whatever that means. And for all that testing to make a safe reopen happen, it’s up to the states. And they pay for it too.

There is a faction of citizens, about 20%, who say the economy should reopen now. Some of them were around Michigan’s Capitol yesterday. The rest of us are willing to wait it out.



Another 5.2 million people filed for unemployment this past week. And, of course, there were a lot more who wanted to, but their state system was overloaded. So in the last four weeks 22 million people have applied for unemployment.



A joke for today from Twitter user Blank:

odysseus: we now set out on our odyssey.

sailor: [raising hand] what's an odyssey?

odysseus: a long journey named after the only survivor.

sailor: oh ok wait what.

This evening’s opera is The Count Ory by Rossini. While most of the men are away at the Crusades Ory, a young and lecherous Count has the field to himself to woo Countess Adele. Yes, a comedy. He first tries to get into her castle dressed as a holy man. Then he tries dressed as a holy woman.

This production shows the stage of the Met which contains the stage of a 17th Century theater. We see all the stage mechanics, such as the scenery being shifted on and off. At the side of the stage, visible to the audience is the stage manager, cuing people to come on and for scenery to fly. He even shakes the metal sheet to imitate thunder during the storm.

Towards the end Ory, pretending to be a nun (though without the habit because it is dark), and his page Isolier who is also in love with Adele, end up with Adele’s bedchamber. And all three sing the love trio … er threesome … from the bed. The stage manager turns the crank to raise the head of the bed so we can see all that’s going on.

During the intermission the broadcast host talked to Juan Diego Flórez, who sang Ory. On the day of this broadcast back in 2011 his son was born at home at 12:30 pm. He arrived at the theater at 1:00 for the 1:00 show. He was ready for his first entrance and sang and acted marvelously.