A problem so consequential that his usual tricks don’t work

In the January/February 2026 edition of Analog Science Fiction and Fact magazine Richard Lovett contributed an Alternate View column to explore an aspect of scientific research not usually reported in the news. This article is titled “AIs Unexpected Ability to Get You Out of the Rabbit Hole.” It is not online. It is based on an article in Science by Thomas Costello, Gordon Pennycock, and David Rand. What that means is for that annoying relative or friend stuck in MAGA world AI offers a way out. Yes, AI can do some good. The way it works is the annoying relative accesses this AI, then is prompted to start discussing favorite conspiracy theories. The AI, in a polite manner, is able to supply evidence to refute each claim. An example Lovett included is the claim that the collapse of the World Trade Center towers in the 9/11 attack must have been an inside job because steel melts at 1500C and jet fuel burns at 1000C. The AI responds by saying steel loses half its strength at 500C. These counter arguments are effective where humans are not because the AI has access to a lot more factual information than any concerned family member can hold in their head and the AI can use that info in a much more appropriate time than most humans could. Because it can respond to specific conspiracy claims it can prompt the wayward person to reconsider their beliefs, or at least reduce their certainty in them. The research shows those changed beliefs don’t revert when the AI is turned off or during the next week or month. Those changed views seem to be permanent. The Sunday, March 29 edition of the Detroit Free Press featured an interview with Ted Tremper in the Entertainment section. The interview is behind their paywall. He is a producer of the new documentary The AI DOC, or How I Became an Apocaloptimist. A reason for the film is that one group of people says AI is wonderful and will lead to humanity’s utopia and another group says AI is horrible and will lead to the extinction of humanity. Both sides attempt to drown out the other. But the film says both are right. AI can create great benefits for us and AI can be deadly for us. We have to give both voices a chance to be heard, then we have to take steps to encourage the good stuff and discourage or prevent that bad stuff. If we don’t we’ll be left with the AI leaders trumpeting the benefits of AI as they use it to cement their position at the top to the detriment of the rest of us. Artemis II has blasted off from Florida and has boosted its rockets to head to the moon! Alas, it will only loop around the moon before heading home. Even so, as in Apollo 8, this is a necessary step. An Associated Press article posted on Daily Kos has details of the mission. As a lad who watched the Apollo moon missions half a century ago I’m pleased we’re going back. We’ve been away too long. I’ve got some articles about the war against Iran that have been in my browser tabs for a wile. I don’t think they’re out of date, even though the nasty guy seems to change his pronouncements every fifteen minutes. On Saturday, March 21, three weeks into the war (we’re almost five weeks in), Kos of Kos wrote:

You’ve gotta be f’n kidding me. President Donald Trump has roiled the world economy, driven gas prices and inflation higher, killed over 1,000 Iranians, lost 13 Americans, and could cost taxpayers $200 billion. And his administration’s big solution to end the war? A literal cut and paste of the deal that President Barack Obama made with Iran. “Any deal to end the war would need to include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, address Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, and also establish a long-term agreement on Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missiles and support for proxies in the region,” reported Axios. If only Trump hadn’t torn up the original deal, he wouldn’t have blundered into this idiotic war of choice.

I have no idea of the state of that deal two weeks later. On Friday, March 20, Emily Singer of Kos reported the results of the Qatari royal family’s gift of a $400 million jet to the nasty guy.

In exchange, Qatar got a pledge from Trump that the United States would come to the Arab nation's defense should it find itself under attack. But instead of being protected from attacks, Qatar is instead being attacked as a consequence of the ill-planned war Trump launched against Iran.

Because of the Qataris aligning themselves to the nasty guy the Iranians struck their largest liquefied natural gas facility, knocking out 17% of the facility’s export capacity, costing Qatar up to $20 billion in lost revenue. That may cause the Qatari economy to shrink by 9% this year. Yeah, the Qataris are pissed that the nasty guy ignored their warnings and bribe. They learned that aligning with a corrupt leader may not protect them from his cruelty and destruction. Again on March 21 Kos wrote:

But with Iran, he’s finally created a problem so big, so consequential, that his usual tricks don’t work. He can’t bluff his way out of it. He can’t tweet it away. He can’t bully reality into submission. He can’t bury it in lawsuits. This is a real crisis with real consequences, and he’s stuck with it. Trump is isolated, harming the global economy, without allies, all while undermining the rules-based order that delivered decades of prosperity and operating without even the pretense of an endgame in Iran. That Iran-fueled fracture isn’t theoretical—it’s happening in real time.

Kos then offers more than a half dozen examples, with the top of the list being Marjorie Taylor Greene’s criticism of him. Nicholas Kusnetz and Georgina Gustin, in an article for Inside Climate News posted on Kos, discussed how China has been developing its wind and solar energy and stockpiling crude oil so that it is shielded from some of damage of the oil blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. It is more vulnerable to natural gas as it doesn’t have a stockpile. This shows how deliberately China is preparing for a time when energy security and geopolitics are intertwined. And because China has worked to be self-sufficient it’s companies are now global leaders in green technologies. As other countries are hit by high oil prices they are turning to China’s expertise. Oliver Willis of Kos reported:

Billionaire Republican megadonor Peter Thiel is receiving international criticism, including from members of the Catholic clergy, for promoting his belief that the arrival of the Antichrist is near. The Antichrist is a figure in Christianity who has traditionally been seen as a herald of the end of the world and who operates in direct opposition to Jesus Christ.

Though not stated in this article this ties into comments by Pete Hegseth and some of the military generals who believe this war in Iran is part of the chain of events that will bring about those end times. On March 20 Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz tweeted comments on the talk the nasty guy might take Kharg Island, through which 90% of Iran’s oil is transported, to force the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. But the attempt is a misunderstanding of Iran’s strategic doctrine.

Under pressure, Iran is more likely to escalate than concede. Reopening the Strait would likely require one of two extreme options: either regime change, or a large-scale military campaign to seize and secure the waterway. Such an operation would take months and still wouldn’t prevent Iran from disrupting traffic through asymmetric means. There is no silver bullet to the Iran problem. The regime will hold onto Hormuz the same way it defends every pillar of its survival—with persistence and escalation. If reopening the Strait is the strategic objective, policymakers should recognize the cost: a prolonged, high-intensity conflict, and likely retaliation against Gulf energy infrastructure.

On Monday, March 23 Singer wonders if the nasty guy is tweeting about various aspects of the war to manipulate the stock market. Over the previous weekend he tweeted that his conversations with Iran are productive and he presented an ultimatum that Iran would concede to his demands or he will hit their infrastructure.

It sure is curious how all of Trump's comments making it seem like the war is coming to a close happen when the markets are opening, and escalations of the war on Iran tend to happen when markets are closed. Despite having been made fools of by Trump chickening out in the past, traders ate up his comments. The post caused the price of oil to fall over 10% and led the stock market to rise 2% when it opened Monday morning. Of course, almost immediately after, Iranian state media said there were no talks with Trump. And an Israeli security official—which is the U.S.’s primary ally in the war—told Sky News that they believed Trump's comments were an effort to manipulate the markets. Not mincing words!

In today’s pundit roundup for Kos Chitown Kev quoted Nicholas Grossman of MSNOW discussing the war.

Iran might not want to end the war yet. It can’t trust Trump to honor any agreement, since in his first term he broke the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (the “Iran nuclear deal”) without cause, and he started this war while U.S. and Iranian representatives were negotiating. Iran’s rulers can’t be confident that the U.S. and Israel won’t pocket any gains and attack again later. That gives Iran an incentive to impose sustained economic pain, establishing a deterrent the U.S. can’t shrug off.

Ruchi Kumar of WIRED discussed a problem in the global shipping system. Because of the closure of the Strait some shipping companies are abandoning their ships. And, it seems, abandoning their crews. In the first comment The Geogre discussed the hearing before the Supreme Court yesterday about the nasty guy’s reinterpretation of the 14th Amendment’s granting of birthright citizenship. It’s a long comment, so I’ll let you read it. I mention it partly because a few other things are related. Michael Dorf tweeted:

Don't get me wrong: I'm relieved that this case is shaping up as either 8-1 or 7-2 against the Trump executive order. But the case is a gift to the Supreme Court. By rejecting an outlandish position, it will earn credibility as apolitical, even as the Overton window moves far to the right.

Stephen Wolf responded:

This. The court may even pair the release of the ruling in favor of birthright citizenship with the one gutting the Voting Rights Act, and the usual suspects will proclaim it’s a sign of moderation.

Every so often Brother will comment to something I write or say by asking whether I’ve heard about the Mud Sill theory. In a comment further down The Geogre says arguments by the nasty guy’s lawyer are similar to the Mud Sill Speech, which he quoted. Here’s part of it.

In all social systems there must be a class to do the menial duties, to perform the drudgery of life. That is, a class requiring but a low order of intellect and but little skill. Its requisites are vigor, docility, fidelity. Such a class you must have, or you would not have that other class which leads progress, civilization, and refinement. It constitutes the very mud-sill of society and of political government; and you might as well attempt to build a house in the air, as to build either the one or the other, except on this mud-sill.

Both Brother and I see this as an attempt by rich people to declare their oppression of poor people – including the necessity of keeping them poor – is vital for (their version of) society to work. A tweet by The United States versus Elon R. Musk also commented on the case:

The Trump administration is literally arguing the winning argument in Dred Scott. I hate it here.