A problem so consequential that his usual tricks don’t work

In the January/February 2026 edition of Analog Science Fiction and Fact magazine Richard Lovett contributed an Alternate View column to explore an aspect of scientific research not usually reported in the news. This article is titled “AIs Unexpected Ability to Get You Out of the Rabbit Hole.” It is not online. It is based on an article in Science by Thomas Costello, Gordon Pennycock, and David Rand. What that means is for that annoying relative or friend stuck in MAGA world AI offers a way out. Yes, AI can do some good. The way it works is the annoying relative accesses this AI, then is prompted to start discussing favorite conspiracy theories. The AI, in a polite manner, is able to supply evidence to refute each claim. An example Lovett included is the claim that the collapse of the World Trade Center towers in the 9/11 attack must have been an inside job because steel melts at 1500C and jet fuel burns at 1000C. The AI responds by saying steel loses half its strength at 500C. These counter arguments are effective where humans are not because the AI has access to a lot more factual information than any concerned family member can hold in their head and the AI can use that info in a much more appropriate time than most humans could. Because it can respond to specific conspiracy claims it can prompt the wayward person to reconsider their beliefs, or at least reduce their certainty in them. The research shows those changed beliefs don’t revert when the AI is turned off or during the next week or month. Those changed views seem to be permanent. The Sunday, March 29 edition of the Detroit Free Press featured an interview with Ted Tremper in the Entertainment section. The interview is behind their paywall. He is a producer of the new documentary The AI DOC, or How I Became an Apocaloptimist. A reason for the film is that one group of people says AI is wonderful and will lead to humanity’s utopia and another group says AI is horrible and will lead to the extinction of humanity. Both sides attempt to drown out the other. But the film says both are right. AI can create great benefits for us and AI can be deadly for us. We have to give both voices a chance to be heard, then we have to take steps to encourage the good stuff and discourage or prevent that bad stuff. If we don’t we’ll be left with the AI leaders trumpeting the benefits of AI as they use it to cement their position at the top to the detriment of the rest of us. Artemis II has blasted off from Florida and has boosted its rockets to head to the moon! Alas, it will only loop around the moon before heading home. Even so, as in Apollo 8, this is a necessary step. An Associated Press article posted on Daily Kos has details of the mission. As a lad who watched the Apollo moon missions half a century ago I’m pleased we’re going back. We’ve been away too long. I’ve got some articles about the war against Iran that have been in my browser tabs for a wile. I don’t think they’re out of date, even though the nasty guy seems to change his pronouncements every fifteen minutes. On Saturday, March 21, three weeks into the war (we’re almost five weeks in), Kos of Kos wrote:

You’ve gotta be f’n kidding me. President Donald Trump has roiled the world economy, driven gas prices and inflation higher, killed over 1,000 Iranians, lost 13 Americans, and could cost taxpayers $200 billion. And his administration’s big solution to end the war? A literal cut and paste of the deal that President Barack Obama made with Iran. “Any deal to end the war would need to include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, address Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, and also establish a long-term agreement on Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missiles and support for proxies in the region,” reported Axios. If only Trump hadn’t torn up the original deal, he wouldn’t have blundered into this idiotic war of choice.

I have no idea of the state of that deal two weeks later. On Friday, March 20, Emily Singer of Kos reported the results of the Qatari royal family’s gift of a $400 million jet to the nasty guy.

In exchange, Qatar got a pledge from Trump that the United States would come to the Arab nation's defense should it find itself under attack. But instead of being protected from attacks, Qatar is instead being attacked as a consequence of the ill-planned war Trump launched against Iran.

Because of the Qataris aligning themselves to the nasty guy the Iranians struck their largest liquefied natural gas facility, knocking out 17% of the facility’s export capacity, costing Qatar up to $20 billion in lost revenue. That may cause the Qatari economy to shrink by 9% this year. Yeah, the Qataris are pissed that the nasty guy ignored their warnings and bribe. They learned that aligning with a corrupt leader may not protect them from his cruelty and destruction. Again on March 21 Kos wrote:

But with Iran, he’s finally created a problem so big, so consequential, that his usual tricks don’t work. He can’t bluff his way out of it. He can’t tweet it away. He can’t bully reality into submission. He can’t bury it in lawsuits. This is a real crisis with real consequences, and he’s stuck with it. Trump is isolated, harming the global economy, without allies, all while undermining the rules-based order that delivered decades of prosperity and operating without even the pretense of an endgame in Iran. That Iran-fueled fracture isn’t theoretical—it’s happening in real time.

Kos then offers more than a half dozen examples, with the top of the list being Marjorie Taylor Greene’s criticism of him. Nicholas Kusnetz and Georgina Gustin, in an article for Inside Climate News posted on Kos, discussed how China has been developing its wind and solar energy and stockpiling crude oil so that it is shielded from some of damage of the oil blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. It is more vulnerable to natural gas as it doesn’t have a stockpile. This shows how deliberately China is preparing for a time when energy security and geopolitics are intertwined. And because China has worked to be self-sufficient it’s companies are now global leaders in green technologies. As other countries are hit by high oil prices they are turning to China’s expertise. Oliver Willis of Kos reported:

Billionaire Republican megadonor Peter Thiel is receiving international criticism, including from members of the Catholic clergy, for promoting his belief that the arrival of the Antichrist is near. The Antichrist is a figure in Christianity who has traditionally been seen as a herald of the end of the world and who operates in direct opposition to Jesus Christ.

Though not stated in this article this ties into comments by Pete Hegseth and some of the military generals who believe this war in Iran is part of the chain of events that will bring about those end times. On March 20 Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz tweeted comments on the talk the nasty guy might take Kharg Island, through which 90% of Iran’s oil is transported, to force the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. But the attempt is a misunderstanding of Iran’s strategic doctrine.

Under pressure, Iran is more likely to escalate than concede. Reopening the Strait would likely require one of two extreme options: either regime change, or a large-scale military campaign to seize and secure the waterway. Such an operation would take months and still wouldn’t prevent Iran from disrupting traffic through asymmetric means. There is no silver bullet to the Iran problem. The regime will hold onto Hormuz the same way it defends every pillar of its survival—with persistence and escalation. If reopening the Strait is the strategic objective, policymakers should recognize the cost: a prolonged, high-intensity conflict, and likely retaliation against Gulf energy infrastructure.

On Monday, March 23 Singer wonders if the nasty guy is tweeting about various aspects of the war to manipulate the stock market. Over the previous weekend he tweeted that his conversations with Iran are productive and he presented an ultimatum that Iran would concede to his demands or he will hit their infrastructure.

It sure is curious how all of Trump's comments making it seem like the war is coming to a close happen when the markets are opening, and escalations of the war on Iran tend to happen when markets are closed. Despite having been made fools of by Trump chickening out in the past, traders ate up his comments. The post caused the price of oil to fall over 10% and led the stock market to rise 2% when it opened Monday morning. Of course, almost immediately after, Iranian state media said there were no talks with Trump. And an Israeli security official—which is the U.S.’s primary ally in the war—told Sky News that they believed Trump's comments were an effort to manipulate the markets. Not mincing words!

In today’s pundit roundup for Kos Chitown Kev quoted Nicholas Grossman of MSNOW discussing the war.

Iran might not want to end the war yet. It can’t trust Trump to honor any agreement, since in his first term he broke the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (the “Iran nuclear deal”) without cause, and he started this war while U.S. and Iranian representatives were negotiating. Iran’s rulers can’t be confident that the U.S. and Israel won’t pocket any gains and attack again later. That gives Iran an incentive to impose sustained economic pain, establishing a deterrent the U.S. can’t shrug off.

Ruchi Kumar of WIRED discussed a problem in the global shipping system. Because of the closure of the Strait some shipping companies are abandoning their ships. And, it seems, abandoning their crews. In the first comment The Geogre discussed the hearing before the Supreme Court yesterday about the nasty guy’s reinterpretation of the 14th Amendment’s granting of birthright citizenship. It’s a long comment, so I’ll let you read it. I mention it partly because a few other things are related. Michael Dorf tweeted:

Don't get me wrong: I'm relieved that this case is shaping up as either 8-1 or 7-2 against the Trump executive order. But the case is a gift to the Supreme Court. By rejecting an outlandish position, it will earn credibility as apolitical, even as the Overton window moves far to the right.

Stephen Wolf responded:

This. The court may even pair the release of the ruling in favor of birthright citizenship with the one gutting the Voting Rights Act, and the usual suspects will proclaim it’s a sign of moderation.

Every so often Brother will comment to something I write or say by asking whether I’ve heard about the Mud Sill theory. In a comment further down The Geogre says arguments by the nasty guy’s lawyer are similar to the Mud Sill Speech, which he quoted. Here’s part of it.

In all social systems there must be a class to do the menial duties, to perform the drudgery of life. That is, a class requiring but a low order of intellect and but little skill. Its requisites are vigor, docility, fidelity. Such a class you must have, or you would not have that other class which leads progress, civilization, and refinement. It constitutes the very mud-sill of society and of political government; and you might as well attempt to build a house in the air, as to build either the one or the other, except on this mud-sill.

Both Brother and I see this as an attempt by rich people to declare their oppression of poor people – including the necessity of keeping them poor – is vital for (their version of) society to work. A tweet by The United States versus Elon R. Musk also commented on the case:

The Trump administration is literally arguing the winning argument in Dred Scott. I hate it here.

It’s premium foreign influence with extra legroom

I’ve heard lots of news stories about the nasty guy’s trip to the Saudi Arabia and nearby rich countries. One story described about how the locals softened him up – they put a great deal of pageantry into their greeting ceremonies. The nasty guy loves pomp directed at him. Makes him feel important. Michel Martin and Aya Batrawy of NPR discussed the nasty guy’s time in Saudi Arabia. I worked from the transcript. It’s all about getting deals done. If the Saudis deliver on weapons purchases and investments in the US the nasty guy will help with their security. Add to that Eric Nasty was in the region less than two weeks ago to start new projects – a branded hotel in one country, a golf course in another. There’s also money flowing into the family crypto business. All this sounds like a great deal of money for the nasty guy plus some money for the US. The news story version of this piece also mentions the contingent of big business leaders who went with him, leaders of Tesla and SpaceX, Planatir, OpenAI, Nvidia, Google, Coca-Cola, Boeing, weapons companies, and asset management companies. Some of the deals are listed, all together Saudi Arabia would invest at least $600 billion in the US over four years. This version has photos of some of the greeting ceremonies. They did one better than the red carpet. This one is lilac. The big story out of that trip is the offer of a jumbo jet to the nasty guy, a gift from the ruling family of Qatar. It is described as a flying palace, costing about $400 million. An Associated Press article posted on Daily Kos fills in the many details. The plane could be used as Air Force One through the remainder of his term, then would be turned over to the foundation that would build his presidential library, meaning he would use it as a personal plane. Yeah, there is a great deal of pushback from Democrats and some Republicans. This gift violates the Emoluments Clause of the Constitution barring accepting gifts from a foreign state without Congressional approval. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said:

Nothing says “America First” like Air Force One, brought to you by Qatar. It’s not just bribery, it’s premium foreign influence with extra legroom.

There are two existing jets used as Air Force One. Both are more than 30 years old. Two replacements are on the way, but the deal was structured so that Boeing is taking a loss of billions of dollars. They won’t be delivered until 2027-2028. The two existing jets are heavily modified to be protection and command center in the air during nuclear war. That’s why the replacements are delayed. The Qatari gift plane won’t have any of that and presidential security must assume it is bugged. I’ve heard that to be allowed for use by the nasty guy it must be completely disassembled and inspected. The free gift isn’t so free. Kathleen Clark of the Washington University School of Law in St. Louis is an expert on government ethics. She accused the nasty guy of exploiting governmental power, not to push policy, but for personal wealth. She said this gift is the “logical, inevitable, unfortunate consequence of Congress and the Supreme Court refusing to enforce” the Emoluments Clause. The NPR news article above includes this quote from the nasty guy:

I would never be one to turn down that kind of an offer. I mean, I could be a stupid person and say, “No, we don't want a free, very expensive airplane.”

Translation: I would be stupid to refuse this bright shiny bribe. Oliver Willis of Kos titled a post “Trump is very proud of himself for selling access to the White House.” He begins it with: “President Donald Trump is openly using the White House to accept personal bribes, providing access and influence over his presidency.” The two recent examples Willis used are (1) the offer of a private dinner at the White House to the winner of an auction of his cryptocurrency and (2) this offer of a jet. In the comments of Tuesday’s pundit roundup on Kos is a meme posted by exlrrp and showing a headline from The Onion: “Man Can’t Believe He Has To Download Stupid App Just To Bribe President.” There are also many cartoons about the plane gift. One by Dave Granlund showing Clarence Thomas envious because all he got was a $270,000 RV. In Wednesday’s roundup Greg Dworkin quoted Paul Waldman, who quoted an ABC discussion of a memo from AG Pam Bondi:

Both the White House and DOJ concluded that because the gift is not conditioned on any official act, it does not constitute bribery, the sources said. Bondi's legal analysis also says it does not run afoul of the Constitution's prohibition on foreign gifts because the plane is not being given to an individual, but rather to the United States Air Force and, eventually, to the presidential library foundation, the sources said.

How much sarcasm can I pour into a response of, “Sure”? From Brian Stelter in the Reliable Sources newsletter.

Some of Trump's staunchest supporters are among the loudest critics of his plan to accept a jet from Qatar for use as Air Force One. I don't think I've seen this much MAGA media pushback since Trump retook power.

From Judd Legum of Popular Information:

Qatar is not acting out of altruism. It wants policy concessions from the U.S. government to bolster its economic and national security interests. Trump is brazenly exploiting those needs to line his pockets.

In the comments are many more cartoons about the plane. In today’s roundup Dworkin started with a quote from The Atlantic:

Even in Washington, a capital now numbed to scandals that were once unthinkable, the idea of accepting the jet is jaw-dropping. Trump’s second administration is yet again displaying a disregard for norms and for traditional legal and political guardrails around elected office—this time at a truly gargantuan scale. Trump’s team has said it believes that the gift would be legal because it would be donated to the Department of Defense (and then to the presidential library). But federal law prohibits government workers from accepting a gift larger than $20 at any one time from any person. Retired General Stanley McChrystal, who once commanded U.S. forces in Afghanistan, told us that he couldn’t “accept a lunch at the Capital Grille.” Former federal employees shared similar reactions on social media.

Dworkin included a tweet from San Stein, which included a link to an article on The Bulwark. The title and subtitle of the article are:

Trump Wants His Corruption to Be Public Intimidation and extortion depends on the targets knowing what price they may pay.

From Mother Jones, talking first about Kash Patel, head of the FBI, and about Qatari influence:

Patel is just one of several top Trump administration aides who have had financial ties to this Arab monarchy. Susan Wiles, Trump’s chief of staff, worked for a lobbying firm that represented Qatar. Attorney General Pam Bondi lobbied for the Qataris. Mike Huckabee, now US Ambassador to Israel, was paid $50,000 to visit Qatar in 2018. Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East, also has pocketed money from Qatar. In 2023, Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund bought the Park Lane Hotel from Witkoff’s company in a $623 million deal. The Trump Organization itself recently struck a deal to develop a luxury golf resort in Qatar. And now Qatar is considering handing as a gift to Trump a jumbo airliner worth about $400 million for Trump to use as Air Force One.

David Beard tweeted the results of a poll done by the conservative New York Post with the question “Should Trump take a $400 million jet from Qatar?” It showed 78.5% of respondents chose “No, don’t trust Qatar.” Paul Waldman of The Cross Section talked about how Democrats should talk to the country. In addition of explaining how bad the big budget bill in Congress is they should add a simple message, “Republicans Hate You.” Down in the comments exlrrp posted a few memes prompted by a new book out saying Joe Biden was in greater mental decline than people knew. A lot of Democrats are calling the book a cheap shot. One of the memes posted here says:

I don’t want to read about a former President’s mental decline because a journalist got a book deal. I want to read a report about the current President’s mental decline by a journalist brave enough to speak out now!

exlrrp added, “I'd rather have Biden as he was than Trump as he is.”

They’re not even really bothering with the “thoughts and prayers”

Bill in Portland, Maine, in his Thanksgiving Day edition of Cheers and Jeers for Daily Kos, has a good list of things to be thankful for. David Neiwert of Kos reviewed the far right media response to the mass shooting at the LGBTQ Club Q in Colorado Springs. Excerpts:

They’re not even really bothering with the “thoughts and prayers” or expressions of regret at the violence after the mass shootings they inspire any longer. No, the people who have been targeting the LGBTQ community with classic stochastic terrorism—dehumanizing and demonizing them, describing them as worthy of violent expulsion, and then leaving the violence to the angry extremists they inspire—are just making the briefest of nods before moving straight ahead with the narrative that really, the victims had it coming, and the perpetrators were entirely justified. ... “Put them to death. Put all queers to death. They die,” proclaimed one fundamentalist preacher, adding: “When they die, that stops the pedophilia. It’s a very, very simple process.” ... That’s their position: Either stop providing children with material that might make them think of LGBTQ people as normal, and stop providing gender-affirming care to children who need it, or expect to be mowed down at random by one of the terrorists who agrees with us that you’re a bunch of pedophiles by nature. Fall into line with us or prepare to face the consequences. ... This is, again, how stochastic terrorism has always worked: Announce and identify the target with eliminationist rhetoric, and then let random actors inspired by the surrounding hateful rhetoric conduct the acts of violence it’s intended to inspire. Statistically predictable, but individually unpredictable. “The way they soften up the support for this kind of violence is essentially by making it seem morally justified in the minds of people who believe this,” Alejandra Caraballo of Harvard Law School told NBC News. “The way they do this is by constantly painting LGBT people as pedophiles and ‘groomers,’ and so people feel morally justified in carrying out this violence.”

Kevin Kallaugher of The Economist tweeted a cartoon from 2012. It shows a service of the American Church of the Firearm. In the corner one guy asks, “Attendance seems low lately... Where is everybody?” His neighbor replies, “Funerals.” Deep within the reader comments for a pundit roundup on Kos, rebel ga included a meme that says, “Fox News: Rich people paying Rich people to tell Middle Class people to blame Poor people.” I hear about the World Cup soccer matches only because news reports include the score of the US team’s latest match or there is a human interest story of one of the players. There is a lot of chatter of what Qatar did to get the rights to host the games and how they’re treating fans who showed up to watch. Val Katayev tweeted a thread about how much Qatar spent to host the games:

Qatar spent $220 BILLION on the 2022 World Cup. Their GDP is just $180B. Is this investment a money pit? Or a catalyst for a nation to thrive?

What Qatar spent is 15 times more than what Brazil spent 8 years ago, which was $15B. Even if that is spread over ten years that is still 10% of GDP each year. It built 8 stadiums of which 7 are temporary. For 1.3 million visitors it built 108 hotels, plus luxury tents in the desert and has cruise ships offshore, plus a new metro system. It spent $220B in hopes of taking in $17B. Also, to build all that somewhere between 6,500 and 15,000 lives, mostly migrant workers, were lost. Qatar did this for the world’s attention. It is getting it, but in a bad way. I looked at a map and guess the peninsula Qatar is on is about 120 miles by 40 miles. Katayev says there are about 300K citizens. So the country spent almost $1 million per citizen. I heard stories that Qatar offered bounteous goodies to a head of state, who called in their FIFA member and demanded their vote go a particular way. I’m sure those goodies are not included in the $220B price tag. Several European soccer teams had been wearing armbands showing solidarity for LGBTQ rights. Laura Clawson of Kos has a picture of the armband, then reported Qatar demanded the armbands be removed. Alas, players from seven countries complied. FIFA is making it clear that it is buckling under Qatar’s demands. Since the World Cup is such a high point in a player’s career, they caved too. The Iranians showed they have a spine. When the Iranian national anthem was played before the match the team members kept their mouths shut. Fans in the stands also didn’t sing or booed their own national anthem. This is in solidarity with the protests that have continued for two months. Aysha Qamar of Kos reported on those continuing protests in Iran and the continuing attempts by the government to crack down. The German team redeemed themselves a bit. In a photo before a match, they hold their hands over their mouths to show they’re being silenced. Aldous Pennyfarthing of Kos quoted an article from CNN:

The US has intelligence that Russia may have delayed announcing its withdrawal from the Ukrainian city of Kherson in part to avoid giving the Biden administration a political win ahead of the midterm elections, according to four people familiar with the intelligence.

While there seems to be a pause in the action Kos of Kos discussed the Kremlin’s propaganda. Russia says countries should want to join us. It is proclaiming an anti-Western message, one of excessive consumption, of false happiness and illusory freedom, all based on allowing the gay parade. But what does Russia really have to offer? At the bottom of a chart showing the GDP of European countries are countries in Russian’s sphere or in the sphere of Serbia, which had been in Russia’s sphere. Wrote Kos:

This has always been Russia’s biggest PR problem—not their brutality and imperialism. The United States and Europe have their own legacy of brutality and imperialism, yet the world gravitates toward them because in the end, economic prosperity is more attractive than s---ing in a hole in an outhouse in the middle of winter.

The Russian people, and all other people in their influence, aren’t concerned about excessive consumption. They are worried about insufficient consumption. In another post Kos explained why there seems to be a pause in the battle action – mud. We rejoiced in mud season last spring because it stalled Russian advances. Alas, this mud season affects Ukraine too. Russia has been brutally bombing Ukrainian infrastructure so residents are without electricity and heat during the winter. I’ve heard several stories of Ukrainians coping in a variety of ways. But making non-combatants suffer is terrorism. In a third post Kos reported the European Parliament adopted a resolution recognizing Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism. The US hasn’t approved a terrorist designation because doing so requires sanctions with those who do business with Russia. Which includes Europe. Russia is furious at being labeled a terrorist. So they responded with more terror. And Ukraine responded by holding a concert by the National Philharmonic of Ukraine in Kyiv illuminated by candles and the lights from smartphones. And the country is getting pretty good at restoring electricity within a day or so. A tweet from Amazing Maps shows “None of the countries that bordered Poland before 1990 exist today.” In 1989 Poland was bordered by East Germany, Czechoslovakia, and the USSR. In 2022 Poland is bordered by Germany, Czechia, Slovakia, Ukraine, Belarus, Lithuania, and the Kaliningrad region of Russia. I checked a detail – that change didn’t happen between 1989 and 2022. It happened between 1989 and 1993, which is when Czechoslovakia split. Amazing Maps also tweeted what Antarctica without ice would look like. There are a few mountain ranges and then huge bays, several big lakes, and lots of islands. And looking a lot smaller than we think it looks now. We don’t need to find out if this realization is accurate.