How to tell if banks didn't close?

I've heard a lot of GOP senators, representatives, and governors commenting about how horrible the stimulus package is. Too inflationary, too much debt, not enough tax cuts, won't do anything, etc. Never mind that some of these positions are exact opposite of what they approved over the last 8 years or are ideas that economists dismiss. They're all struggling for something to run on (or against) a year and a half from now. If the stimulus package fails they can trumpet that it wasn't their fault and you had better vote for me. Some pundits are describing the situation as outright war against Obama. But there is a big question: how does one tell if the stimulus plan was a disaster? Obviously, if the economy comes roaring back we can brand it a success. But what if the economy loses 1 million jobs instead of the 3 million that would have been lost without it? Or 500 banks fail instead of 1000? Obama is in a sweet spot at the moment. Repeatedly extending a conciliatory hand to the GOP looks good for him and getting a punch in the face in return also looks good for him.