The chance to apply scientific principles

Now that we have some states with gay marriage we have the proper environment for a scientific experiment. This allows us to compare social trends in states with gay marriage with states that don't even allow civil unions. Since many Fundies predict catastrophic consequences (like the end of civilization), we could even -- as scientists do -- ask them for a prediction and compare that with eventual results. Strange that two out of three people who were asked for predictions had nothing to say.

The third, Maggie Gallagher of the National Organization for Marriage, did respond (after a while), though she first complained that the whole thing must be a game of "gotcha" (well, yeah…). Her predictions:

* People committed to traditional marriage will be afraid to express their views, lest they be punished.
* Public schools will teach about gay marriage.
* Parents who object to such lessons will no longer be accommodated.
* Religious institutions will face legal threats or be treated in the same way as racists if they don't change their views.
* Support for "the ideal for a child is a married mother and father" will decline.

That’s it?

The sky doesn't fall? Western civilization doesn't end? Straight marriage isn't devalued? Divorce rates don't rocket upward? Children aren't harmed? If that's the best she can do the debate is over.

Actually, I think most of Gallagher's predictions are correct. Yes, schools will teach about gay marriage (or at least acknowledge the gay couple who pick up a classmate). Yes, those who are against gays will grow quiet in the same way that most racists have gotten quiet. Yes, parents won't be readily accommodated by the schools. Yes, support for the ideal family (which wasn't trumpeted as ideal until gays wanted in on the game) will decline. And even many churches will change their views. Though I'm sure there won't be legal threats over antiquated views (though there might be legal issues of improper campaign spending). Instead, churches face revolts from within.

In addition, these predictions will come true in states that don't (yet) allow gay marriage.

And there is precedent for these predictions. Consider what racists were saying in 1955. Support for the ideal of "separate but equal" has declined.

The scientist is left wondering how to measure these predictions. How does one tell if people are afraid to express their views when every time someone says something nice about gays the Fundies jump up and say "We're being oppressed!"?

So onward into the next big question. Are those changes a bad thing? And this is where Gallagher and I disagree.