Victory that will take years to pay off

Now that the Iraq war is over (and only extreme conservatives are using the word "won") Terrence Heath looks at the cost. The end of the war is like a gift we've all been waiting for with a credit card bill that will take years to pay off. I've discussed some of these costs before, so I'll only itemize them now.

* American and Coalition dead, wounded, and suffering from PTSD.

* Much higher numbers of Iraqi (especially children) dead, wounded, suffering from PTSD, and displaced. Women and girls forced in sexual slavery. We should consider this is a nation with PTSD. And it won't recover quickly.

* A shattered Iraqi infrastructure. Decimated health system.

* Extensive hit to our national debt (perhaps $1.3 trillion, which we'll be paying interest on for a long time), and through that an extensive hit to our ability to help our national economy recover.

The idea of an entire nation suffering from PTSD got me to thinking. I'm well aware that in 2003 when the war began nobody had any idea of the Arab Spring that would happen 8 years later (and before the end of the war). Suppose we didn't topple Saddam in 2003 and waited for the Iraqis to do it themselves. Would they have succeeded like Libya or been stuck like Syria? What would the costs have been like?

The American and Coalition costs would have been close to zero.

Would the overthrow of Saddam have cost the Iraqis 103K dead and 1.6 million refugees. Would it have shattered the infrastructure? Would it have created an entire nation suffering from PTSD? Would all that suffering be smaller or larger than 8 (or more) years under Saddam?

I suspect if we had stayed out of Iraq the Iraqis would have a lot fewer dead (compare numbers with Syria), a lot fewer refugees, and would have a much better level of mental health. And their mental health would have been boosted by being able to claim the overthrow was their own victory.