Engineering a giant loss

I've been following the marriage protection amendment work its way through the Indiana legislature. It was passed by lawmakers in 2010 and must pass them again before appearing on the ballot. They apparently didn't try last year, waiting for the Supremes to rule on the Defense of Marriage Act. The amendment had been sent to the House Judiciary Committee where it got stuck. There weren't quite enough votes for it to pass. At the time Timothy Kincaid of Box Turtle Bulletin said if the GOP leadership was smart they would let the bill die in committee.

They're not smart.

House Speaker Brian Bosma, in a highly unusual move, switched the bill to the Elections Committee because there was a better chance to pass it. And indeed they did so, voting promptly (who needs testimony?) with a tally of 9-3 to send the bill on to the House floor.



Let's see now. The last win for the "traditional" marriage folks was North Carolina in May of 2012. At that time the number of states with marriage equality was six (plus DC). Since then three states won equality at the ballot box in 2012 and another eight this year through a variety of means (not counting Utah, which is on hold).

So, yeah, the traditional folks are desperate for another win. They need to show that marriage equality (and gay rights in general) isn't a foregone conclusion, that all those states that have it now are just flukes. How desperate? Just think about how conservatives do anything political these days. The scene this time will be Florida where they plan to engineer a giant loss. Ned Flaherty of the New Civil Rights Movement provides details in a seven part (four post) series.

There is a new political action committee with the name Equal Marriage Florida (EMFL). Great! we say. About time. But it was created with the help of Tim Mooney, a GOP strategist, and other GOP insiders. Yeah, something fishy. Vanessa Brito declared herself president and treasurer and put forth a plan for marriage equality in Florida. She said it would take $6 million.

The state voted for a marriage protection amendment in 2008 by 62% with only 38% against. That 38% opposition to the ban hasn't changed in six years. A change to the constitution (meaning a voter repeal) requires 60%.

Thirteen (gay rights?) organizations rejected Brito's plan as too costly, to divisive, too psychologically harmful, and doomed to failure. The loss would slow our rights in Florida and break our national winning streak.

When reporters began snooping around EMFL (which reporters do with any election organization) Brito clammed up. She claims to have money, but in finance reports mandated by state law she reports zero donations and zero expenditures (when she files at all). EMFL claims to have tens, maybe hundreds, of thousands of signatures on petitions to get the issue on the ballot. But without money how were those names collected? The tally keeps changing. And Brito remains silent.

Flaherty contends EMFL was created not to win marriage equality, but defeat it. Along the way it would ruin activist morale and burn up gay dollars so they can't be spent elsewhere.

Flaherty documents the mischief Mooney has been making on behalf of the GOP, starting with running the marriage protection amendment campaign in Utah in 2004 (the one overturned last month). He also got Ralph Nader on the ballot in several states in 2004, splitting John Kerry's vote and giving the election to Bush II. Sweet guy.

EMFL is poised to hand us a defeat in either of two ways. The first is a failure to collect enough signatures. With a claim of 200,000 signatures in November and a million (a huge portion of Florida's 16 million potential voters) due by February 1 and no money or clamoring volunteers EMFL is almost guaranteed to not make it. Conservative organizations are poised to jump on that, saying, "HA! You couldn't even raise enough signatures! We WIN! And we didn't have to spend a dime!"

But that is preferable to the second way to defeat -- actually getting on the ballot. The campaign would unleash the forces pent up since the California battle in 2008. Yet EMFL says $6 million would be enough to counter that deluge of money. Sure it will.

Out of the 16 million potential voters, 7 million are over 50, mostly GOP, and very much want to keep the ban. How does EMFL intend to convince 2 million of them to switch their votes? Not necessary, they say. We'll focus on the young voters. But why spend $6 million on those already with you and ignore those who aren't?

Flaherty summarizes the damage of getting on the ballot:

Floridians — not to mention the rest of the nation — will then suffer through another bitter, vicious campaign in which billboards and broadcasts call LGBT people defective, deviant, depraved, and demonically possessed. While that campaign rages in this southernmost state, teenagers who are LGBT or who have same-gender parents are likely to be brutalized, and children from all age groups will be victims of the prejudice for which America’s deep-south theocrats are so famous.

And all that nastiness would be followed by a defeat at the polls.

The EMFL website and Facebook pages trumpet their efforts would "guarantee the freedom to marry." Nope. Their proposed repeal only repeals the constitutional ban. The statutory ban would continue because only lawmakers can repeal laws. The legislature is 63% GOP and they have all vowed to never repeal the ban. And Dem lawmakers don't dare mention a repeal and are even hesitant to propose domestic partnerships.

So, yes, politics played dirty and designed to lose. At our expense.