The destruction is so massive, the evisceration so complete

Mark Sumner of Daily Kos wrote about the Russian – Ukraine peace negotiations in Istanbul. Don’t expect much. The first issue was “de-Nazification.” But since Putin’s forces haven’t been able to “scare, assassinate, or capture Zelenskyy” Russia doesn’t care about that issue anymore. Then there was demilitarization, that Ukraine not join NATO. Well, OK. There are other ways to create mutual defense treaties. So that one is rather pointless. Then the issue that actually matters. The now stated reason for the invasion was to “protect” the “breakaway republics” of Donetsk and Luhansk. It appears Russia is trying to expand its control (and absorption) to include all the land between Donbas and Crimea (and extend it west to Odesa if it can).

This is the one demand that Russia actually cares about. It also happens to be the one demand that Ukraine absolutely will not give them. Because Zelenskyy, and everyone else in Ukraine, recognizes that ceding a single acre of land to Russia for this unprovoked invasion would be seen as a betrayal. ... Russia wants Ukraine to agree to not just recognizing the land it stole in 2014, but expanding on that theft. Ukraine will not agree. Which makes it very likely that another phase of this war is coming soon, one in which both Russia and Ukraine shift more forces to the south. None of that is likely to change so long as Putin believes he can bludgeon Ukraine into accepting peace at any price.

Even though Sumner says Russia doesn’t really care about the first two issues, I’ve since heard Russia is still quite willing to use them to stall the peace talks. Kos of Kos quoted a tweet from Iuliia Mendel:

According to @bellingcat the Russian FSB paid billions of $ to ensure that some shadowy political class in Ukraine supported this war & created an internal coup d'état immediately after the invasion. But Ukrainian agents who took the money ditched them. They just screwed them over.

Kos reported one likely target of a bribe was Odesa Mayor Gennadiy Trukhanov who has a reputation of a corrupt gangster with the law closing in. Russia could offer immunity. Instead Trukhanov vowed to fight and Odesa is not in Russian hand. Kherson is. It is the only major city to fall to Russia. Was it stupidity or betrayal? Perhaps both? The city could have been protected by blowing up certain bridges – but they weren’t. The Governor resigned and fled – was that south into Crimea to collect a bribe? The city’s defense forces were not well trained and volunteers were left waiting. Ukraine is glad other mayors and governors felt sufficiently Ukrainian to not accept Russia’s offer. Kos told the story of Russia’s 4th Guards Tank Division. This is the elite of the Russian military. It was successfully used in several territory skirmishes. In comparison to a lot of other Russian military units this one was actually maintained for battle readiness. They were the best funded and had the latest generation of armor. They were deployed between Sumy and Kharkiv, getting quite a ways into Ukraine. And – in the big news over the weekend – Ukrainian forces repelled them. So much equipment – at least a third of the tanks – was destroyed that the 4th GTD retreated back across the border. Kos wrote:

The scope of 4th GTD’s destruction is so massive, the evisceration so complete, that you’d think Ukraine massed a considerable force to take it out. Yet no details have been forthcoming. Ukrainian General Staff doesn’t seem to be in any hurry to detail its successful strategies to Russian generals. ... I’m certainly eager to learn how these scrappy Ukrainians pulled off a coup of this magnitude, Postscript: The commander of one of the division’s regiments reportedly died of suicide when it was discovered that only one in 10 of its tanks in deep storage were usable. Many had engines missing. You know, for dachas and vodka. So much for resupply. Meanwhile, the commander of Russia’s 1st Tank Army, of which the 4th GTD was part of, was relieved of his command.

Aldous Pennyfarthing of the Kos community reported that Russian troops, as part of their efforts to de-Nazify Ukraine damaged a second Holocaust memorial. This one is Drobytsky Yar, a memorial dedicated to 15,000 Jews shot and put in mass graves by Nazis during WWII. Pennyfarthing wrote:

Wait, by “de-Nazifying,” did Putin mean erasing any evidence that the Nazis were ever in Ukraine? Or does he just want to supplant faint memories of Nazi atrocities with all-new ones starring Russia and its bumblef--- blitz?

Hunter of Kos reported that Russia has announced tactical retreats of forces near Kyiv. Since Ukraine is pushing those forces back this is a way of Russia to say we’re leaving but not because we’re getting our asses whupped. Kos discussed what that tactical retreat might really mean. Some options: Hold the current line by replacing their best soldiers with conscripts. But that would make it easier for Ukraine to push them back further. Pull back to a more defensible line. Go back far enough and Ukraine has little reason to go after them. Ukraine has more important things to do, such as break the siege of Chernihiv. Retreat all the way back to Belarus. But this area of Ukraine is so sparsely populated (Chernobyl is in this region) the Ukrainian forces won’t bother. Stay where they are. All this talk of retreat might be a play to international audiences. Besides, their logistics may be so messed up they can’t get the troops out while exposing their backs to Ukrainian forces. Another thread from Kamil Galeev. He first says Putin is not like the Soviet Politburo. That body actually discussed things and had to sort through opposing opinions. Putin listens only to Putin. Then Galeev discussed a gambit authoritarians use. They bet the country on some outrageous and irrational adventure. His minions doubt his judgment and consider removing him from power. But the bet pays off. The tyrant is seen as a genius who was right all along. His domestic power grows. His minions are willing to follow him anywhere because that’s the smart thing to do. Hitler made that bet when invading Czechoslovakia. And a key reason why that bet worked was because Neville Chamberlain of Britain chose appeasement to maintain peace. That peace meant Hitler gained power withing Germany. He made a bet and won. And now Russia has bet his country on being able to snatch at least a little bit of territory from Ukraine. That really is a bet on the whole country with sanctions doing significant damage. The country is in deep crisis. The birth rate is down so the population is shrinking. And his army is getting its butt kicked (not that anyone is telling Putin that). Putin could still win (which is not the same as Russia winning) through being able to hold onto a piece of Ukraine and by getting the rest of the world to lift sanctions too soon. He would be seen as a genius and the bet worthwhile. Hunter reported the nasty guy praised Putin again saying the invasion of Ukraine looked like a great negotiation that didn’t work out too well. Yeah, leveling Ukrainian cities was all part of nothing worse than a business deal that didn’t work out. Sumner discussed Russia’s super weapons – that have been missing from the battlefield. There are supposedly hypersonic missiles. Russia has fired two. There is a “Felon” fighter jet. Russia has four production planes and seems unwilling to risk them over Ukraine. There is a great tank with multiple missile launchers and a sophisticated armor system. It was shown off in the 2018 Victory Parade, though one had to be towed away (Breakdown? Too complicated for the driver to operate?). The number produced so far for actual use in battle: zero. The super weapons are super rare. That leaves the army having to use the vintage stuff. As for that vintage stuff. Russia theoretically has 4,000 T-80 tanks. About 480 of them are active (and the 310 on Ukraine roads – and mud – don’t look all that great). The rest of them are “in storage.” Is that a euphemism for inoperable or already sold for scrap metal? Kos has been discussing the huge problems the Russian military continues to have with logistics, with keeping its troops supplied. But even with great supply lines Kos says Russia would still be losing. As evidence Kos points to Kharkiv. Russia hasn’t taken it, or even surrounded it. And that’s a city only 16 miles from the Russian border – and only 50 miles from Belgorod, which is home to several large large army units. Keeping an army supplied while it is only 50 miles from base should be easy. So not being able to take Kharkiv isn’t (or shouldn’t be) a logistics problem. Instead it is a sign that the army in general is incompetent. In a report from this morning Kos discussed all the military defeats Russia suffered yesterday. Kos described it as Russia’s worst day yet. Sara R of Kos gathered together tweets from Victor Kovalenko and others reporting that seven buses of Russian soldiers suffering from Acute Radiation Syndrome arrived in Belarus. These are troops that had taken over the Chernobyl site. Their armored vehicles had stirred up radioactive dust. Radiation levels at the site have shown an increase since the second day of the invasion. Laura Clawson of Kos reported on Sen. Joe Manchin. Remember him? He hasn’t been in the news much lately because he hasn’t had much to obstruct. Clawson wrote about him because the New York Times has revealed another level of Manchin’s corruption. Back in 1987 when Manchin was a state senator he helped get the Grant Town power plant started. This plant used waste coal, which Manchin’s business supplied. Waste coal is dirtier and more expensive than regular coal. It is so dirty that Manchin needed to use his influence to get EPA permits.

“Since 2016, Grant Town has cost Mon Power $117 million more than it would have spent to buy that power from other sources, according to documents filed last year with the Public Service Commission,” the Times reports. “The utility had little choice but to buy the electricity; its contract with Grant Town doesn’t expire until 2036.” So the Grant Town power plant is causing pollution above the average coal-burning plant. It’s costing West Virginia utility customers extra money. But it’s funneling $500,000 a year into Joe Manchin’s pockets.

Joan McCarter of Kos reported that Manchin is getting back into his obstructionist ways through comments on Biden’s budget for 2023. Many of these comments are of the form of “people said” which gives Manchin a veneer of deniability. Another batch are of the form of sure I believe in taxing the rich – just not that method of taxing the rich. Maybe it is time to launch an ethics investigation. This seems appropriate after a discussion of dirty coal. April Siese of Kos discussed a recent study marking the 60th anniversary of the passage of the Clean Water Act. The report examined a long list of rivers, streams, creeks, lakes, ponds, bays, estuaries, and harbors. More than half are “impaired with pollution” which means the don’t “meet standards for swimming and recreation, aquatic life, fish consumption, or as drinking water sources.” And not all waterways have been examined because some states don’t provide (and maybe don’t have) their data. Siese also reported on the annual “Banking on Climate Chaos” report that was released this week. This documents the financial institutions that continue to buy into (make money off of) fossil fuels since the Paris Agreement of six years ago. JPMorgan Chase is at the top of the list with more than $382 billion invested in fossil fuels since 2018. The top four spots, representing a quarter of fossil fuel financing, are all American. That’s even though none are in the top five in total assets. JPMorgan Chase is also criticized for investing in Russian oil giant Gazprom, investing $1.1 billion in just 2021. These financial institutions are complicit in undermining a climate stable future. Siese also reported that Big Oil has jumped into cryptocurrencies. Currencies such as Bitcoin need huge amounts of electricity for their “mining” operations – to crunch the complex math equations that underlay the way these currencies work. Oil companies find they can capture some of the methane they normally leak or flare and turn it over to generate electricity for the crypto mining operations. Yes, capturing the methane and burning it is better for the environment than simply releasing it. Better yet would be to leave it in the ground and for oil companies to make profits on a different kind of business.

Every warship launched signifies a theft from those who hunger and are not fed

I watched the Oscars last evening. I was delighted to see the movie CODA won in all three categories for which it had been nominated. These were Troy Kotsur for best supporting actor, Siân Heder for best adapted screenplay, and best picture. I quite enjoyed the movie when I saw it and pleased a movie about deaf people and one of its deaf actors were so highly honored. Best supporting actress went to Ariana Debose who played Anita in the new version of West Side Story. She is a lesbian. A lot of posts on Daily Kos are about how bad the Russian army has been in its invasion of Ukraine. Mark Sumner discussed the 1962 book The Guns of August by Barbara Tuchman. It won a Pulitzer Prize. The general idea that Sumner pulled from the book is that the Russian army has always been terrible. As for their victories... In the case of Napoleon it was the weather. In many other cases it is because Russia is willing to put up with losing a much higher number of soldiers. They keep piling up the Russian dead until the other side quits. An autocratic ruler can feed intolerable numbers to the meat grinder without political consequences. Sumner included a tweet by Jack Detsch about another Russian general killed in the war. Detsch wrote that the generals are closer to the front because of the challenges in issuing order, challenges of both technology and discipline. Western estimates say nearly 35% of the generals first sent to the war have been killed. Kos of Kos discussed the importance of rivers in the defense of Ukraine. The cities that Russia hasn’t been able to surround are all next to rivers. And the one that is surrounded, Mariupol, is not near a river. As Ukraine switches to offense those rivers will be more of a hindrance than an asset. Sumner provided an update though a tweet from Dr. Sarah Taber. A lot of people have bee reporting that Ukraine and Russia grow 25% of the world’s wheat exports. What will be missing because of the war will be only 1% of the world’s wheat crop. Dartagnan of the Kos community discussed an interview between Washington Post columnist Greg Sargent and historian Timothy Snyder. Wrote Dartagnan:

Snyder believes one of the primary reasons Putin launched this ill-conceived war was a perception that the West—and particularly the U.S.—would fold under the weight of its own internal discord and divisions. The Trump-inspired insurrection that occurred in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 6, 2021—and the subsequent efforts by Republicans to ignore, sanitize, and whitewash it—provided Putin with the confidence that any U.S. response to his war would simply underscore its innate weakness and impotence.

And Snyder wrote:

But the deeper point is that Trump’s attempt to overthrow the election on Jan. 6 made the American system look fragile. They think, “One more Trump and the Americans are done.” In invading Ukraine, they think they’re putting huge pressure on the Biden administration. They’re going to make Biden look weak. That probably was their deep fantasy about the West: Successful military occupation in Ukraine; the Biden administration is totally impotent; we humiliate them; Trump comes back; this is a big strategic victory for us.

Dartagnan concluded

Trump’s Big Lie and the subsequent lies that have now metastasized through the entire Republican party quite literally provided aid and comfort to Vladimir Putin, bolstering his confidence that he could start an unprovoked war without any serious consequences to himself or his own country. The refusal by Republicans to take responsibility for those events and own up to Trump’s lies gave him all the motivation he needed.

Hunter of Kos discussed another possible reason why Russia seems to be doing little more than reducing cities to rubble.

It is not necessarily that Russian generals are itching, on each battlefield, to turn to war crimes. It's more likely a symptom of entrenched military cowardice. Why are Russian generals firing into Ukrainian cities, at targets that can't and won't fire back? Because it's one of the few logistical operations the grift-riddled, impossibly corrupt military infrastructure can still execute. If you're a Russian general looking to show that you're working hard to achieve implausible Kremlin objectives, parking yourself outside Mariupol or Kharkiv and shelling neighborhoods into wastelands of broken concrete is a no-muss path to, if not glory, at least not being called back to Russia in preparation for your fatal “heart attack.”

Dmitry Muratov of Russia won the Nobel Peace Prize (along with Maria Ressa of the Philippines) in 2021. Both are investigative journalists working to uncover the corruption of their governments. Charles Jay of the Kos community wrote about a couple things related to Muratov. Muratov said he will donate his Nobel medal to the Ukrainian refugee fund so that it can be auctioned off to raise money to help refugees. There have been previous auctions of Nobel medals raising ¾ million to 4¾ million so it could raise a good chunk of money. Muratov founded the Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta back in 1993. When Russia invaded Ukraine Muratov and his newspaper were highly critical. Then a new censorship law was passed on March 4. Muratov polled the staff and readers, who wanted him to stay open. A WaPo article reported:

Novaya Gazeta is technically complying with Russia’s new law, but is far from cowed — relying on visual storytelling, firsthand testimony, transparency about omissions, and implied meaning to convey the horror of the war to a Russian readership that can read between the lines. “Listen, I am not going to shoot myself in the foot just to walk away from this information battle,” Muratov said in a telephone interview from Moscow. “When the government wants to shut us down, they’ll shut us down. But I am not going to go against the will of our journalists and our readers and turn the lights off here on my own.”

Bill in Portland, Maine, in his Cheers and Jeers column for Kos, took the anniversary of the death of President Dwight Eisenhower (he died in 1969) to include a quote of his “The Chance for Peace” address of 1953 as posted near his grave:

Every gun made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and not clothed... This is not a way of life at all... Under the cloud of threatening war, it is humanity hanging from a cross of iron.

We’ve seen over and over, and definitely in the last year, Republicans pass a gigantic defense budget, then claim there isn’t enough money to feed, clothe, and shelter the poor. They certainly claim there isn’t enough money to help the poor out of poverty. I’m glad to see Eisenhower figured that out in 1953. With apologies to Gilbert and Sullivan, Andrej tweeted new words to a G&S song. Here’s the first of three verses:

I am the very model of a Russian Major General My standing in the battlefield is growing quite untenable My forces, though equipped and given orders unequivocal Did not expect the fight to be remotely this reciprocal

Laura Clawson of Kos discussed why Clarence Thomas should resign or be impeached. As I mentioned a couple days ago his wife Ginni Thomas had been exchanging text messages with the White House Chief of Staff discussing how to overturn the 2020 election. A bit more than a year later Clarence Thomas was the only Supreme Court Justice to vote on the side of the nasty guy when he tried to shield documents from the January 6 committee. All the other justices said the nasty guy no longer had executive privilege. Which raises the question – did Clarence vote that way to protect his wife? That’s definitely a conflict of interest. This batch of texts from Ginni were not in the batch of documents that Clarence voted on. But this won’t be the last batch of documents requested by the Jan 6 Committee. And Clarence doesn’t recuse himself from cases were there is a conflict of interest. In one of Greg Dworkin’s pundit roundups for Kos, he quoted Josh Marshall of TPM. It summarizes to: Of course Ginni talked to Clarence about this. Claiming she didn’t is absurd. Rico of the Kos community discussed map projections – some of the ways we project the spherical (mostly) earth onto flat maps. All of these ways distort something, such as shape or size. For example, in many maps Greenland is shown 14 times larger than it really is. These distortions affect how we look at the world. Then Rico presented data I’ve seen before, though it is good to see some of it again. He explained the world population as if there were 100 people in the entire world: 5 would live in North America. 9 would live in in Central and South America. 11 would live in Europe. 15 would live in Africa. 60 would live in Asia. 6 men would not be able to read. 11 women would not be able to read. 15 would be undernourished. Almost half would live on less than $2 a day. 26 are children younger than 15. 13 of those children would live in poverty.

“Can’t” is the worst of four-letter words

My “Sunday” movie was on Friday because a movie I wanted to see was on broadcast TV (besides, the Oscars are on Sunday). The movie was The Conductor, a documentary about orchestra conductor Marin Alsop. It was shown on PBS as part of their Great Performances series. Alsop is a worthy subject of a documentary because she is the first woman to lead a major American orchestra (and did I get it right that she’s still the only one?). She is also quite good, worthy of her post. She is the daughter of professional musicians. She studied piano (and hated it). Her parents sent her to camp – violin camp, and she was hooked. At age 9 she attended an orchestra concert and was entranced by the conductor, who was Leonard Bernstein. She said that’s what I want to do. But she was frequently told girls can’t do that. She attended Julliard for violin. With fellow students she formed a small ensemble named String Fever to play swing music. Since they were all from the classical music world it took a while to figure out what “swing” meant and to apply it to their playing. Once they did they got gigs (including on TV) and played together for 20 years. She still wanted to conduct. Various schools turned her down. So she created her own orchestra with the help of a well-off businessman and his friends. Bernstein and Tanglewood finally accepted her as a student. She applied for the job of Music Director at the Baltimore Symphony Orchestra. There was a great deal of resistance to her getting the job with the usual misogynistic blather. She wondered how she could lead a group that opposed her. She got it and accepted it. She has also been the Music Director for the Sao Paulo orchestra and for an orchestra in Vienna – the birthplace of classical music! (Though not the Vienna Philharmonic, one of the last orchestras to admit female musicians). She is also a teacher of minority and female conductors (sometimes over the internet) and sponsors music programs for inner city Baltimore kids. She thinks “can’t” is the worst of four-letter words. And she has a wife. I enjoyed it because I enjoy classical music. If you do too this one is on one of the streaming services. I downloaded Michigan’s COVID data, updated yesterday. Of course, numbers have been adjusted since previous downloads. The weekly peaks in the number of new cases per day for the last four weeks, coming off the omicron spike, are 1012, 777, 778, and 832. Perhaps this is a plateau instead of the start of another rise, though it is too soon to tell. News reports are saying the omicron BA2 variant is becoming more common in America, though nationwide the case count is currently dropping. For the last two weeks the deaths per day has been below 20. There are days when I hope the news out of Ukraine is light so I can write about all the other things accumulating in my browser tabs. But today doesn’t look like one of them. Mark Sumner of Daily Kos reported that Russia says it is focusing its efforts in “liberating” the Dombas region of Ukraine. Sumner says we should read this as Moscow recognizing it can’t take Kyiv and can’t install its desired puppet government. A couple days ago I wrote that the Ukrainian flag had been raised over the Kherson city hall. That is false. The city is still under Russian control. I did see a photo of a yellow and blue banner hanging from a wall, but I don’t know where that wall is – evidently not in Kherson. A few hours later Sumner wrote of a presentation given by the Russian Ministry of Defense that Russia never really wanted to capture Kyiv and Kharkiv in the first place. Never mind they lost 15,000 troops and 1,800 armored vehicles in the attempt. The only reason for those fronts was to draw attention away from the real action in the east and south. They say that as the outskirts of Kyiv were shelled again. One can tell the truth of those statements because they also said the avoided damage to civilian infrastructure and civilian casualties (though Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Irpin, Bucha, and especially Mariupol would like a word). Those statements also claim the Ukrainian military has been destroyed – as in they’ve taken out “300 out of 117 radars.” Somebody has a math problem. Charles Jay of the Kos community wrote that Mariupol shows Putin’s claim that the invasion was necessary to protect Ukraine’s Russian speaking population is a lie. The city has been one of the most pro-Russian cities in Ukraine. A survey had shown that residents were more likely to favor economic ties to Russia and oppose ties to Europe and NATO. 80% of Mariupol voters supported pro-Russian candidates. That does not mean the city wants to be independent from Ukraine. Or a part of Russia. So Russia reducing Mariupol to rubble may be one of Putin’s biggest blunders. That rubble will greatly change how the residents feel about closer ties to Russia – though there won’t be any polls taken for a while. Another thread from Kamil Galeev explains there is a big difference between Russian speaking and being Russian. Political allegiances don’t align with languages and ethnicities. Galeev included a map of the ethnic peoples in Ukraine. The country is quite diverse. Galeev turned to France as an example. The country used to have a variety of languages. Then the monarchy began to push the language of the capital onto the rest of the country. That homogeneity, that monoculture, we now see in France is not “natural” – it is the result of ruthless social engineering, sometimes known as ethnic cleansing. What is natural is diversity. This thread includes a long discussion of which ideas (mostly religious ideas) came from Russia and which came from Ukraine. Yep, a lot of them came from Ukraine. One of the things Galeev mentioned is that since 2014 a goal of Russia in Donbas has been to keep up a level of chaos. That allows Russians to appear to maintain order and be the heroes of the populace. Kos of Kos included a tweet from Pierre Morcos that says French President Macron has announced that France, working with Greece and Turkey, is planning an evacuation of Mariupol. They won’t ask Putin for permission. They’ll tell him about it. Also, Greece and Turkey working together? They’re usually like cats and dogs. But Russia’s invasion is bringing them together. Kos warns this operation will be difficult. Kos also discussed the effect the war is having elsewhere in the world. Yes, NATO is working to make sure the war doesn’t spread – into Europe (though enlistments in the Polish army are way up). Japan is considering this might be the time to reassert control over islands they say Russia is occupying. There is Nagorno-Karabakh, a territory of Azerbaijan being held by Armenia. The current situation had been enforced by Russia. The US and China wield soft power, such as economic inducements. But Russia had only hard power – fear of its military might. And that fear is fading. Russia is leaving a vacuum that a dozen countries would like to fill. Joan McCarter of Kos, working with a story from the Washington Post and CBS, that back after the 2020 election there was a series of text messages between Ginni Thomas and Mark Meadows, then the nasty guy’s chief of staff. Thomas offered suggestions and encouragement on how to keep the nasty guy in office. These text messages are a big problem because Ginni is the wife of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas. Yeah, the wife of a Supreme Court justice was working to overturn an election and destroy democracy. There have been calls for Clarence to resign (lovely dream, not going to happen) or be impeached. At least he should recuse himself when Capitol attack cases come before the court. Ginni does a lot of work in the white supremacy world and so far when cases related to her work come before the court Clarence hasn’t recused himself (and there is no body overseeing the court nor ethics rules that demand he does). Brian Tyler Cohen, who does political commentary, tweeted:

“We don't want any activist judges,” say Republicans, as one of their justices' wives conspired with the White House Chief of Staff to overturn a presidential election and that justice refuses to recuse himself from any cases on it.

Jared Yates Sexton tweeted:

The Ginni Thomas story is bigger than Clarence Thomas or his position on the Supreme Court. It reveals what a lot of us have been trying to tell people. The antidemocratic authoritarianism wasn’t just Trump or a passing flirtation. The GOP and the Right Wing are riddled with it. Yes, Clarence Thomas should resign. But we also have to recognize that Trump wasn’t the sickness but a symptom. The Right is fully dedicated to overthrowing democracy and securing power and profit. It’s top to bottom and part of the entire project. The attempt to steal the election, and ongoing efforts to disenfranchise and steal power, are being executed by incredibly powerful and wealthy Right Wing actors behind the scenes. Trump was the figurehead, but the problem is extensive and continuing.

When I was in college decades ago I did a small research paper on nuclear fusion as an energy source. This has always been portrayed as producing commercially available electricity 20 years from now – as in 20 years from now when I was in college and still 20 years from now in 2022. Meteor Blades of Kos, in his Earth Matters column, included a 15 minute video by Just Have a Think explaining nuclear fusion and the current state of research. Fusion is what powers the sun and is a very green way to generate energy. Yes, we can make fusion happen on earth – for a second or so at a time. The devices that do fusion cost tens of billions of dollars. Currently the total amount of energy required to make fusion happen and get that energy to the electrical grid is about ten times the energy we can get out of a fusion reaction. So this video says maybe our children will enjoy the benefits of fusion. But right now it is much better to spend those billions on the renewable energy sources we already know work. The urgency of our need to switch away from fossil fuels is too great. I just realized we are using fusion energy – through solar panels.

It's all a propaganda game for the television channels

I forgot to include a something in my discussion of the book Gay Like Me yesterday. That is the author, Ritchie Jackson, doesn’t engage the statement said by many conservatives that being gay is a choice. He ignores the statement because the usual answer is to say I didn’t choose being gay. But that implies if one had a choice one would not be gay, that one would rather be straight. And for him that is not true. If he had a choice he would choose gay. Mark Sumner of Daily Kos discussed a big shift in how pundits have been talking about the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Early in the war Julia Ioffe appeared on Stephen Colbert’s The Late Show and said the best outcome (least destruction, fewest deaths) is for Russia to swiftly install a puppet regime and scare Ukrainians to keep them quiet and not have another revolution. Then withdraw. The new best choice was mentioned by Michael McFaul, former ambassador to Russia, writing in the Washington Post. His take is that since Ukraine will ultimately defeat Putin’s army the best thing for the West is to make that happen as quickly as possible. Give Ukraine what it needs to win. Not draw to a stalemate. To win. That’s currently the best way to save lives. An amazing shift of perspective in the last month. Sumner reported that while the US military is not in Ukraine, US soldiers are. There are a number of countries, including the US, who have reported soldiers who have gone AWOL. And no one is in a hurry to find them, under the assumption they’ve gone to Ukraine to volunteer. Several Americans have appeared in the front lines. I mentioned yesterday that a Russian ship suffered an explosion in the Black Sea port of Berdyansk. Sumner, in an update to a summary post by Hunter, wrote that the ship has sunk and that it was done by the Ukrainian military and not a Russian accident or friendly fire. Kos of Kos commented on an idea that’s making the rounds. The idea: Putin needs to provoke the West because losing to NATO is more honorable than losing to Ukraine (which is humiliating!). So, as noted above, Ukraine has enough soldiers. Keep the military gear flowing. Kos noted a couple consequential tweets. One said that the US will work with the EU to supply Europe with natural gas to reduce what they now buy from Russia. The other says Germany plans to cut its use of Russian gas in half by summer and to zero by the end of this year. This is Putin’s only reliable supply of income. And the goal is to cut it off more quickly than anyone thought possible. I’ve discussed a couple threads by Kamil Galeev discussing how Russia works. Here’s another one. A lot of what happens in Russia doesn’t make legal/illegal or human sense. Some of it is absurd (see Kafka). Instead, one should look for the procedural sense. One procedural requirement is to convict someone of a crime one needs a confession (acquired any way possible). During the Stalin years a bunch of students mocked the Dear Leader. When questioned they said we’re loyal, we wouldn’t mock Stalin. Two students who observed the group snitched on their fellows – and they were the ones taken to jail for listening to treasonous talk. As for the mockers – no confession, no jail. Another example happened during the Great Purge of 1937. A guy who belonged to the hereditary nobility knew he would be arrested and extorted for a confession. So he went to a store, broke a window, filled a bag with valuables, and waited for the police to arrest him. He was a regular criminal and survived five years in jail. But as a regular criminal he couldn’t be a political criminal, which would have led to his death. The poor believe they are dealing with humans and they get sucked into the procedures and suffer. The rich know they are dealing with procedures and figure out how to hack them. The poor see the rich as getting special treatment, which is true. The confirmation hearings for Ketanji Brown Jackson, the nominee for the Supreme Court, have concluded. I’ve seen some liveblogging of the hearings, but not all of them. I also didn’t listen to NPR’s live coverage of the hearings. No need to listen to the dreck from the Republican members of the committee – which seems to have drawn the worst of the bunch – Cruz, Hawley, Cotton, and Graham. Aldous Pennyfarthing of Kos said they pulled out the worst of what they can do because their real goal was to get airtime on Fox News and to boost their Twitter following. The more they were seen as strong white guys verbally beating up a black woman the better their chances. Pennyfarthing included tweets from Nolan McCaskill and Kent Nishimura, both of the Los Angeles Times that confirmed that after Cruz’s time of demanding answers to stupid questions he was seen sitting with his head down and checking Twitter for the response. Hunter of Kos discussed the part about doing it to get on Fox News. Some of what he wrote:

All of the weird questions suggesting a Black American represents some vague sexual threat to “our children”? Those were asked because a very large swath of the Republican base has heard that same language all their crusty racist lives, and they eat it up. Ted Cruz nearly standing on a table as he harangued Judge Jackson, belittled her, lied about her? An attempt to goad a Black woman into being “uppity” in the face of white Republican men. ... For those of you keeping track: Ted Cruz can do whatever Exorcist-style projectile-vomiting racist cabaret routine he wants during an official confirmation hearing for a new Supreme Court justice, and it won't be considered “attitude.” A Black woman raising an eyebrow in confused response? Now that's attitude. ... It's all a propaganda game for the television channels. The message being delivered is that the Black American is a threat to your white conservative children, because the Black American might go easy on Republican pedophiles like Dennis Hastert, etc. When faced with a fountain of racist diarrhea, the Black woman continued to breathe—surely a sign of attitude. It was meant to be racist. Everyone involved knows very, very well that their attacks were meant to poke the long-standing grievances of white supremacist assholes, and everyone involved knew that success would lead to Fox News publicizing their performances to give their sweaty white supremacist audience some good clips of white racists sticking it to a Black woman at a venue in which the Black woman was explicitly required to not talk back.

Bill in Portland, Maine, in his Cheers and Jeers column for Kos, included late night commentary. An example:

In Washington they're holding confirmation hearings for Joe Biden's Supreme Court nominee Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson. These hearings give a number of our Republican senators a chance to compete in one of their favorite events: the Subtle Racism Jamboree. Judge Jackson will be the first Black woman on the Supreme Court. She doesn’t need any Republican votes to get confirmed because the Vice President is the tiebreaker. That would be the GOP's ultimate nightmare—having this decided by two Black women whose names they can't pronounce. —Jimmy Kimmel

The brilliant, funny, creative, inventive, courageous, wicked, strong, heroic lives

I finished the book Gay Like Me, A Father Writes to His Son by Ritchie Jackson. When that son turned 18 and about to head off to college he said he was gay. In response, Jackson wrote this book to describe the delights and dangers of being gay. A couple quotes, first from page 10:

I am so happy you are gay. There is so much about being gay that I am eager for you to experience. The amazingly diverse community that you are now a part of and that is now a part of you – the brilliant, funny, creative, inventive, courageous, wicked, strong, heroic lives you are among. The chance to love and to be lived by an extraordinary individual. The creativity that will permeate your day because there is no set course you must follow. I am thrilled for the flight ahead of you; I am wary of the fight ahead of you. When I rejoiced that you were gay, I was really wishing for the good parts – the community, the camaraderie, the creativity. The incredible beings who populate our community, who against all odds are themselves. But you can’t be gay with just the good parts: your life daily will be touched by all the difficult parts too. The fight, the struggle, the challenges, will make it even more valuable, even more worthy.

And from pages 59-60:

Whether you feel it as acutely as I did, and still do, you are other. And the way to deal with your otherness is not to soften the edge, not to find the ways to fit in or to pass. It is to double down, to exploit and to expose all those parts of you that are other. Those elements of your otherness are your deep well of creativity and divinity. Your answers reside in your singularity and difference. By amplifying your otherness you unlock your promise and potential. It is there that you will find your way of loving and being loved.

Some of the other things Jackson discusses in 150 pages: We gay people need a double consciousness. We do all the things Americans do, but America doesn’t want us and tries to erase us. We need clarity of ourselves and of what America thinks of us. Gay life in the 1990s was quite different than gay life in the 2010s. Don’t take those differences for granted. The gains we’ve made may be taken from us. So to be a part of this diverse community we must be vigilant and active about protecting it. The complicated life of LGBTQ people is worth it. Never diminish your essence. Learn your gay history. AIDS is not over. It’s still a straight man’s world. Coming out happens every day – people will assume you’re straight and at times letting them think that may be the safe thing to do. One must be a good gay citizen in helping future LGBTQ people lead rich and safe lives. Jackson includes his own history. Long before he was out his mother took him to see Torch Song Trilogy starring Harvey Fierstein in a theater. This is a very gay show and ends with the main character demanding respect from his mother and the mother walking away. Jackson wondered why his mother took him to see it. Afterwards his mother said, “If you ever came home and said you were gay, I would never react like the mother in the play.” He took that to mean I know you are gay and I’m helping you come out. Even with that invitation he couldn’t at that time. When he was off to college he had gay friends. However, his first three gay trysts involved men who felt shame over having sex with a man. Even though he didn’t feel shame from his mother (his dad took a little work) he internalized the shame from these men. This son was the product of surrogacy when his partner was BD. The birth came three months early. One of the twin boys didn’t survive and the other was in NICU for three months. Jackson’s relationship to BD fell apart a couple years later and in the year after that he met and fell in love with Jordan. When marriage became legal they were married. It was only then I learned that BD was actor BD Wong. That’s when I realized I had heard of the birth and hospital stay. Wong had written the book Following Foo: The Electronic Adventures of the Chestnut Man. The boy was named Jackson Foo Wong. That book had been on my to-buy list until I heard Wong and Jackson has split up. It is now back on my to-buy list. I highly recommend this book. Sigh... on to news of Ukraine. Mark Sumner of Daily Kos again discussed the Russian tactic of not engaging on the battlefield, but instead of pulverizing cities. Another example of this is in the city of Chernihiv, northeast of Kyiv. There is a bridge on the south side of the city that Russia would need to cross on its way to taking Kyiv. But Russia destroyed that bridge. Part of that means Russia isn’t going to send troops from Chernihiv to Kyiv. But the other part means they’ve destroyed the way for supplies to get in and for refugees to get out. Now they can sit back and lob missiles. Dartagnan of the Kos community has said Biden, Harris, and other Western leaders have started saying they will protect “every inch” of NATO territory. That phrase is a way of annoying Putin. The story begins back when the Soviet Union was dissolving and Russian leaders were anxious about NATO expansion. During preliminary discussions with Gorbachev Secretary of State James Baker used the phrase that perhaps NATO would expand “not one inch to the east.” That would be difficult to pull off because it would mean Germany could not reunify. Its use also earned Baker a scolding from Bush I. Baker never said the phrase again and it doesn’t appear in any official signed documents. But as recently as last December Putin has been making the claim that “not one inch” was official and that the West cheated on whatever treaty by admitting Poland, the Baltic states, and other Soviet states into NATO. So for Biden to now say that he will protect “every inch” of NATO territory will sting. Which is good. More of this story is told in the book “Not One Inch” by M.E. Sarotte. Kos of Kos discussed why so many Russian generals have been killed in Ukraine. The US military has professional officers who went to college and enlisted men who usually stick around for a 3-4 year term. Those enlisted men who re-enlist can be noncommissioned officers or NCOs. These are the mid level guys with years of experience who actually make things happen. But the Russian military doesn’t have this middle layer of leadership with years of experience. And that means two things (at least): First, the people training the fresh conscripts don’t have years of experience, which leads to vastly insufficient training. Second, it means the generals have to be in the field to make sure things happen. Where they can get killed. Russia is really proud of its Navy and considers the Black Sea to be its domain. So it is a big surprise to see a ship blown up in the Sea of Azov port of Berdyansk. A munitions warehouse exploded too. It is also a big victory for Ukraine. Watchers aren’t sure how (or if) Ukraine did it. Videos show no sign of an incoming missile. About the same time the Ukrainian flag was raised on the Kherson city hall. And that happened about the time Zelenskyy addressed the leaders of NATO saying:

Never, please, never tell us again that our army does not meet NATO standards. We have shown what our standards are capable of. And how much we can give to the common security in Europe and the world.

In another post Sumner wrote:

On Wednesday, Russia reportedly issued a demand that its oil, and the gas it ships into Western Europe at a price of over $700 million, be purchased in rubles and only rubles. This would require that nations seeking to buy Russian fossil fuels first purchase rubles with dollars, then buy the oil or gas with rubles. In terms more familiar to the average person—Russia is only going to accept payment in Chuck E. Cheese tokens, so you have to buy tokens first. The immediate goal of this is that it should help prop up the price of the near-worthless ruble. In fact, just the announcement has the ruble halfway back to the 0.014 dollars it was selling for before the invasion got rolling. But it could also have an effect in terms of chipping into the dollars role as the one and only international petrocurrency.

That could lead to destabilizing the global economy. Sumner discussed a thread by Levi Westerveld who pointed out the progression of maps that the New York Times used over the weeks of the war. The first one showed the areas Russia held in strong colors with Russian troop movements in red thrusting arrows. No sign of Ukraine resistance A week later the NYT map muted the color of the held areas and reduced the size of the arrows. Still no sign of resistance. In the third week the Ukrainian resistance is finally shown. Wrote Sumner:

Those New York Times maps tell a story — but it’s not the story that the Times graphics department set out to tell. They give a visual approximation of the way pundits, both in the pages of the NYT and elsewhere, have treated Putin’s war from the outset. First as an inevitable Russian walkover, then with snide assurances about Russia’s inevitable victory, and finally with a grudging admittance that Ukraine is actually playing a role in its own future.

Also in this post Sumner mentioned that almost all of Russia’s oil and gas production is already under contract to be paid in dollars or euros. So that demand to be paid in rubles won’t happen for a while. Also, Poland is refusing to pay future contracts in rubles.

Listen to the dissidents because they speak of what is to come

From a post on Monday Hunter of Daily Kos reported Ukrainian’s most reliable source of new armor is Russian supply lines. Even better than supplies from the West. A deputy commander sounded like his battalion does shopping trips. They come to a Russian supply column and shoot at the first vehicle. When it explodes the Russian soldiers flee. And the Ukrainians get all this nice equipment. Yeah, it’s old. But quite reliable. As for the equipment Russia sends to Belarus by train for use in taking Kyiv, well, the Belarusian railway workers are sabotaging the trains or tracks. Kos of Kos did updates by battlefronts. In the one for the front around Kyiv Kos wrote the Ukrainians are doing a good job of pushing back the Russians who are northwest of the city. Kos also showed images of FIRMS, NASA’s public satellite service that tracks forest fires. It is also good at tracking fires from war, which helps track military front lines. There is a lot of action along the western flank of those northwestern Russian troops. In Hunter’s update from Monday noon, there is a tweet from Nexta TV with a report that Russia’s only tank manufacturer has stopped production because of a lack of parts. Kos wrote about the status of the front in the South. Ukrainians appear to be pushing Russia back from Mykolaiv to close to Kherson. Still too soon if Ukraine plans to liberate Kherson. Kos referenced a report by CNN to say Russian troops around Kherson are afraid to retreat because anyone falling back is shot. Then he noted a naval officer was killed on land. A look at this officer’s job description prompted this from Kos:

OMG. This was a guy in charge of other guys whose job it is to shoot battlefield deserters and anyone retreating. I’m going to guess he got fragged. Why else would a high-ranking naval officer be anywhere siege fighting? So if these ghouls are really in Kherson, and why wouldn’t they be, Russian rank-and-file troops may need to clean some house internally before they can surrender. Whatever minimizes the bloodshed, let’s hope that’s what happens.

In a Tuesday morning report Mark Sumner of Kos noted some things that aren’t happening. No amphibious assaults on Odessa. No troops from Belarus (though some fighting for Ukraine), no troops from Syria. Russia isn’t winning, isn’t capable of winning. So why would Belarus and Syria want to support a loser? And that will create a lot of instability in countries within Putin’s sphere of influence. Visegrád 24 tweeted an image of someone holding a sign with the words:

Russian troop pronouns are Were/Was

Pundits have been saying that it doesn’t matter if Russia loses in the short term. It will win in the long term simply because Ukraine will run out of bodies before Russia will. Sumner took on that debate. There’s more costs to a war beyond bodies. And with bodies coming home there is a limit to what the citizens will tolerate – even in Russia. Besides, the idea that one side has more bodies to throw at the problem hasn’t helped the US win any of its conflicts in the last 60 years. A few days ago I wrote about a video that Arnold Schwarzenegger created so he could speak to the Russian people. The question was whether the video would get past Russian internet blocks. Walter Einenkel of Kos reported that Arnold must have gotten through and enough people viewed it that Russia felt the need to condemn it. That task went to powerlifting champion Maryana Naumova. She said Arnold was being hypocritical – but didn’t address Arnold’s issue. Kos discussed what might happen if Ukraine is able to encircle Russian troops. He shared the story of the sole member of a Russian tank crew who was persuaded to turn over his tank in exchange for $10K and Ukrainian citizenship. See above about retreating soldiers as to why this would be a great deal. Igor Kossov of the Kyiv Independent wrote a day in the life story:

For weeks, Oleksandr and his friend Andrii have been driving into the war zones outside Kyiv, running critical supplies in and getting people out. Oleksandr reckons they’ve evacuated over 250 civilians and I believe it. In the one day I spent with them, they evacuated seven. They also help deliver power banks, food and medicine, help rescue left-behind pets or, when it’s too late to save someone, bring out bodies to get a proper burial in Kyiv and hopefully serve as evidence in some future court of human rights against Russia. “When people sit for over a week without light, internet or news, they come out and ask us ‘is Kyiv still ours?’” Oleksandr says. “We reassure them, yes, Kyiv is ours, everything is good there, look, we brought you some bread.” Today, they let me tag along on one of their daily missions. While Oleksandr gave me permission to share, I’ve kept both their last names hidden for security purposes, as they don’t plan to stop sticking their necks out any time soon.

Kossov then described the adventures of the day. Dartagnan of the Kos community wrote about how Putin came to power. Back in 1999 the Russian leadership, including Boris Yeltsin, were seen as highly corrupt and Yeltsin was hitting the bottle. His “Unity” movement was heading for defeat in elections. How might they rally the people to his side? The best way is, of course, a national emergency. They increased tensions with Chechnya, which lashed out. But that didn’t affect public opinion. They needed more violence. So there were bombings of apartment buildings in Moscow, Buinaksk, and Volgodonsk. The bombings were blamed on Chechen terrorists. Yeltsin resigned at the end of 1999 and Putin became acting president. He was formally elected in March 2000. He campaigned on (and acted on) seeking revenge on Chechnya. His approval rating went from 31% in mid August to 78% in November. There is strong evidence that the bombs at the apartment buildings were set by the FSB, the successor of the KGB – of which Putin was the head. Of course, there were denials. But Putin would not be where he is now without those bombings. His reign quite likely began with violence. Dartagnan wonders when the US intelligence community will open its files on these bombings. Garry Kasparov wrote Winter is Coming. Mig Greengard tweeted the last paragraph:

My last policy recommendation is to listen to the dissidents, even if you do not like what they have to say. They are the ones who reveal to us the dark realities of our societies, the realities that most of us have the luxury to turn away from. Listen to the dissidents because they warn us of the threats that target minorities first and inevitably spread to the majority. Every society has its dissidents, not just dictatorships. They speak for the disenfranchised, the ignored, and the persecuted. Listen to them now, because they speak of what is to come.

On to other things. Greg Dworkin, in a pundit roundup for Kos, quoted Jessica Grose of the New York Times who discussed a Gallup poll of school satisfaction (I added emphasis):

“73 percent of parents of school-aged children say they are satisfied with the quality of education their oldest child is receiving.” More parents were satisfied in 2021 than they were in 2013 and 2002, when satisfaction dipped into the 60s, and in 2019, we were at a high point in satisfaction — 82 percent — before the Covid pandemic dealt schools a major blow. Digging deeper into the Gallup numbers revealed that the people who seem to be driving the negative feelings toward American schools do not have children attending them: Overall, only 46 percent of Americans are satisfied with schools.

73% of parents like our schools. That drops to 46% of all Americans like our schools. Which means the ones who don’t like our schools, who don’t have children in these schools, are a pretty large and noisy group. To me that means they’re getting serious funding from rich people like Betsy DeVos who want to destroy education for everyone who can’t afford it on their paycheck. Einenkel reported that on March 9, the Kingsland Branch Library in Llano County, Texas fired librarian Suzette Baker. The reason was she did not comply with directives to remove certain books from the shelves. She was cited for “creating a disturbance, insubordination, violation of policies and failure to follow instructions.” Einenkel wrote:

Suzette Baker, however, has become one of the first people to have her right to work taken away because of true governmental censorship. Not unlike our public schools, public libraries are some of the most important institutions for nurturing a healthy, democratic society. I can and will argue that the public library system is the single most important institution in our democracy in that anyone, of any background, of any economic situation, can access any and all information—both analog and digital—for free at their public library. It is no coincidence that the more conservative and fascistic elements our country have tried to crush public libraries for many years.

Bill in Portland, Maine, in a Cheers and Jeers column for Kos, included a video from Science & Nature showing a zero G race between Usain Bolt and a couple astronauts.

With over 80% of the residences damaged or destroyed

My Sunday movie was the musical Tick, Tick ... Boom! It stars Andrew Garfield, who learned to sing and play the piano to take on the role. It’s directed by Lin-Manuel Miranda. The story was written by Jonathan Larson who is also the main character. He’s the guy who wrote Rent and died at age 35 just before that show premiered. At the beginning of this movie we hear “Everything you are about to see is true... except for the parts Jonathan made up.” This show is a musical about writing a musical, originally conceived as a one-man show. The year is 1990, Larson is about to turn 30, and is feeling he hasn’t accomplished anything yet. He is getting tired of living in poverty and working at a diner, but thinks creating art is much better than writing advertising copy, which his friend Michael is doing after giving up a career as an actor. Michael is gay, Larson isn’t, and it is good to see a robust friendship between the two. We see an intermix of scenes of Larson writing his musical Superbia (I think it’s that and not Suburbia because it doesn’t take place in the suburbs), rehearsing it, arranging a workshop of the show in hopes of attracting producers, living his life, and then telling an audience about all that (the eventual Tick, Tick ... Boom! show). Some songs, all written by Larson, are from the inner show, some from the outer, and some from living life, much of it autobiographical). There is a big production number at the diner where Larson works, all about the rush during Sunday brunch after one of his fellow waiters lands in the hospital with AIDS. The scene was populated by actual Broadway legends with Miranda as cook. I suspected something like that was up when I spotted Bernadette Peters. Garfield gave a fine performance, including his singing, as did everyone else. This is a movie I recommend. Three months ago and noting I’ve been streaming a movie once a week, Niece said I could use her Netflix password. She then sent it to me. I didn’t use it before now because I didn’t want to make things difficult between her and Netflix. Then last week I read a news article saying Netflix encourages password sharing, though most of the article was about Netflix starting to end that perk. Yes, a great deal of customer complaint over that move. So I tried it last night. And I was glad I could watch Larson’s story. I’ve got a few more Netflix shows on my to-see list. I will write about Ukraine updates when I see they have something interesting or important to say. Given that the war is mostly at a standstill that will likely be less frequently. Even so, here are a couple important things. Mark Sumner of Daily Kos wrote a post just before noon on Saturday. What caught my eye is the start of the second paragraph.

Mariupol has been surrounded since shortly after the invasion began. Russian forces have purposely destroyed the area’s access to water, gas, and electricity. They’ve blocked humanitarian convoys attempting to bring in food and medical supplies. And they’ve kept over 300,000 people bottled up even as Russia continues to blast away. Now, with over 80% of Mariupol’s residences damaged or destroyed, and with emergency workers still trying to extract those trapped beneath the rubble of the theater that Russia purposely bombed on Thursday, Russian forces have finally broken through Mariupol’s outer defenses and fighting has moved into the streets. Ukrainian defenders—despite a shortage of both food and ammunition—managed to take out a trio of Russian tanks on Saturday, but with the fighting near the center of the city (and interfering with efforts to save those still under the theater), the mayor of Mariupol has warned that the city’s remaining defenses may soon collapse. If that happens, resistance is sure to continue in the debris-choked streets, but Russia will be at least able to claim that it controls the entire coast of the Sea of Azov, with areas in Donbas connected by a corridor to Crimea. Even so, the stability of that corridor is definitely in doubt. As Kos has repeatedly pointed out, in most areas what Russia actually controls is a very narrow zone around the highways.

Kos of Kos titled this morning’s post “Good news, Russia can't win! Bad news, neither can Ukraine.” Kos and Sumner have documented (and I’ve repeated) why Russia can’t win – they’re stretched too thin and can’t do logistics well, while the country’s economic situation is collapsing. Russia seems to be adjusting to that reality and might be satisfied with the land between Donbas and Crimea (where Mariupol is holding out). Russia is not going to give up that territory. If Ukraine wants that land it must be taken by force. Ukraine has lots of military equipment, thanks to NATO, but it is all defensive. Which is the only thing NATO will give.

Looking through Ukraine’s arsenal, there is plenty to bleed Russia dry, but little to dislodge them from the pre-war boundaries, where the populace is less likely to welcome a return to Ukrainian control. There is no Air Force, and Ukraine won’t indiscriminately level cities to force surrender. (And that strategy hasn’t even worked well for Russia, despite its massive advantages.) Ukraine’s armor is old, and best used in defensive entrenchments. It won’t fare well exposed to Russian missiles, air power, and artillery. And so we’re stuck. There is no realistic scenario in which Ukraine manages to reunify the country by force. It just doesn’t have the offensive combat capability to do so. So the most likely scenario is a return to the pre-war borders, Ukrainian “neutrality” of some sort (it’ll still get its security guarantees though other treaties that aren’t NATO), and a war criminal mass murderer sitting in the Kremlin, with zero accountability for his crimes. Perhaps the only consolation will be that Ukraine can’t negotiate away Russia’s brutal economic sanctions. And while the broader sanctions regime will crumble as countries like Italy demand to sell Gucci to Russian oligarchs, the United States doesn’t have to follow along, crippling Russia’s economy indefinitely. Europe will continue moving away from Russian fossil fuels, putting Russia’s economy in China’s hands, which China will exploit to its advantage. ... Ukraine would have to decide whether it was worth thousands more dead, billions more in infrastructure damage, and continued economic damage and food insecurity (both domestically and globally), all for pieces of land that aren’t required for its own successful statehood. Heck, pull a West Germany—build such a successful economy, that Donbas would want reunification. Aligning with the Russian wasteland won’t bring prosperity to the region. If the past eight years are any indication, quite the opposite will continue to happen.

Paying Russian soldiers to destroy the Russian army is cost effective

I downloaded the Michigan COVID data, updated yesterday. The numbers for the last few weeks have been adjusted, as they frequently are. The peaks in new cases per day for the last four weeks are: 1374, 940, 746, 915. Yes, that is a bump up in the last week. It is still too soon to tell whether this is a wiggle in a new plateau or the start of another variant surge. I’ve heard news reports saying cases are up in Europe due to an omicron variant. And over the last couple years cases rising there are followed two weeks later by cases rising here. Deaths per day for March 6-13 have been in the 11-20 range. That’s good news! My task for today was to snake out the drain under the kitchen sink. It isn’t a hard job with PVC pipes with connectors that can be loosened by hand. But it sure is a messy job. I searched my blog posts and see I wrote about snaking the drain back in March 2017. It went a lot more smoothly today and didn’t need trips to the hardware store. Snaking the drain once every five years – not bad! About the time Biden was talking to Xi of China Mark Sumner of Daily Kos discussed the role China might play in Russia’s attack on Ukraine.

As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine approaches the one-month mark, day to day events are still unpredictable, but the ultimate outcome is clear — Russia has lost. The combination of hard resistance from the Ukrainian military, refusal to accept Russian domination by the Ukrainian people, and the world uniting to both provide defensive weapons to Ukraine and punish Vladimir Putin for starting this brutal war of aggression, makes it impossible for Russia to come out of this on top. The cost on every level: economic, diplomatic, military, leaves Russia hugely diminished from it’s standing on the day before the tanks rolled in. No matter what form the end of the invasion takes, for Russia it has been an absolute disaster whose effects will impoverish and isolate the country for decades. There is really only one possible place that Putin can turn for help: China.

China has questions to ponder. Does allowing a partner to fail, militarily and financially, harm China’s ability to form alliances? Might China prop up Putin to prolong the war to drain NATO resources? Other than that advantages of taking Russia’s side are quite small. I mentioned the big rally Putin held in a stadium. The BBC was there. While there were great images of cheering, attendees talked about being forced to be there and not supporting the war. Sumner discussed the way various kinds of Russian missiles work. Then he noted Russia may be running out of them. A thousand missiles fired into Ukraine in three weeks sounds like a lot – though when the US invaded Iraq it used 3,000 in two days. Sumner also included a brief summary of the phone call between Biden and Xi. Looks like they covered the expected topics. Walter Einenkel of Kos discussed a video that Arnold Schwarzenegger created to talk directly to the Russian people. Arnold spoke of his admiration of them, then said this is Putin’s war, not theirs. And it looks like he was able to get it past Russian blocks on social media. Einenkel included the nine minute video if you want to watch (I didn’t). Kos of Kos summarized the status of the war. The US media should not say Russia is doing a “strategic pause” – Russia is just stuck. Also, Ukrainians are pushing Russian’s back. Part of that is Ukrainian soldiers defending places like the interior and Odesa are seeing Russia won’t get that far. So they are available to go to where the fighting is. Kos linked to another thread by Kamil Galeev who discussed demographics as a bottleneck to Russian war efforts. Syria’s demographic chart is a pyramid, wide at the bottom, narrow at the top. The average age is young. But the Russian demographic chart shows the generations getting smaller under 40, which is the average age. Ukraine also has a high average age. The demographic charts at the time of the Russian revolution and WWII were pyramid shape. They had the young people who could fight wars – though only 3% of the men in the high school class of 1941 survived the war. That means Russia doesn’t have a big population of fighting age men. Those in the army are mostly conscripts. Those with any talent or means dodged the draft. So those in the army are not the best the country had to offer. The men are frequently from poor circumstances or from an ethnic minority. The army is much less Russian than before. Given a way out, these conscripts will take it. Such as offering a couple thousand bucks and a way to somewhere warm to put the wrong kind of oil into a military vehicle. Paying Russian soldiers to destroy the Russian army is cost effective. In a pundit roundup for Kos Greg Dworkin quoted an article from Bulwark that included a tweet from Dmitri Alperovitch. First the tweet:

Zelensky to Russian parents: “There are phone numbers you can find online that you can call and find out what is really happening to your children. We did not plan to take thousands of prisoners” Zelensky with powerful message to Russian soldiers’ parents: “We do not need 13 thousand or more dead Russian soldiers. We do not need that. We didn’t want this war. We only want peace. And we want you to love your children more than you fear your government”

And commentary from Bulwark:

What’s notable about this appeal is that you can only talk like this from a position of strength. Zelensky does not have to posture and pretend to be tough; he does not have to boost morale at home by talking about unleashing hell on evil Russian soldiers. Ukrainian forces have been so successful that he can attack Putin’s regime by going directly to the Russian people and position himself as their ally.

Kos reported that around Kyiv the Russian forces are digging in – creating berms of dirt to protect and hide their heavy equipment. This is not something an attacking army does. It’s what an army under attack does. Kos included a tweet from Nexta TV. Their subscribers report that Lithuanians donated their SUVs to the Ukraine defense force. There is a 45 second video of a long convoy of car carriers full of these SUVs. And each vehicle is filled with humanitarian aid. There was also a convoy of Spanish taxis that brought 100 refugees to Madrid. And a convoy of 22 firetrucks from Britain full of fire fighting and rescue equipment heading to Ukraine. Commenter randym77 quoted an image tweeted by Antti Hyttinen of a proposed LEGO kit of a Ukrainian tractor pulling a Russian tank. Bill in Portland, Maine, in a Cheers and Jeers column for Kos quoted late night commentary:

Yesterday Russia announced that they're hitting Biden, Blinken, and other top U.S. officials with sanctions. Oh, that's adorable—they're doing their own sanctions. It's like when you give your kid a bubble lawnmower and they're like, “I'm a world power, too!” And you're like, “You sure are, buddy, you're doing a great job.” —Stephen Colbert

Not even fit to be fertilizer on Ukrainian soil

Not even fit to be fertilizer on Ukrainian soil Last evening I had supper with my friend and debate partner, a pleasant and friendly time together. We went to a restaurant in a Detroit suburb that has a real downtown – meaning it was a town before suburbia stretched out that far. The regular parking lots were full so I parked a few blocks away on the street. Yes, a lot of people in green shirts ready to celebrate St. Patrick’s Day with a lot of places crowded. Friend and I almost had a restaurant to ourselves, one that served tasty Indian food. Ukraine President Zelenskyy addressed the US Congress yesterday, one of a handful of foreign leaders to ever do so. Laura Clawson of Daily Kos included a video of what he showed. I didn’t watch it because it is quite graphic. Kos of Kos wrote about the history of Putin wanting to remind the world that Russia is still a superpower. So there was a lot of dread when Russia invaded Ukraine. And a different kind of superpower shock and awe in the days since then. Kos also included a photo of the Russian flag being lowered at the Council of Europe as Russia leaves that organization. Mark Sumner of Kos wrote that though it is Ukraine that is under attack it is Putin who looks weak. A sign of that is Putin declaring the oligarchs, the guys he made rich to keep their loyalty, to be traitors. He is attacking those fleeing the country, and sounding like he is preparing for a purge on the scale of Stalin. There is a “B” character in Cyrillic. I don’t know what sound it represents. Since McDonald’s closed down its Russian operations the Russian government is taking it over as a state run business. They even filed for a trademark – the Golden Arches turned sideways with a bar on the left to create a “B” – including a red background. Anywhere but Russia this would be seen as trademark infringement. Sumner discussed the city of Mariupol, a city under siege. Fifteen years ago it was the most environmentally damaged city in Ukraine. Since then it kept the factories humming while cutting the pollution levels in half. It also became known for its art, cinema, and music with public sculptures and festivals. It will be a while before Mariupol can return to such life. The Mariupol Theater has been bombed while maybe about a thousand people were inside, using it as a bomb shelter. Rescue attempts are underway. Ruben Bolling of Kos posted a Tom the Dancing Bug cartoon comparing Putin to the Republican or “RePutincan” Party. Both are criminalizing what one can say, both are criminalizing the truth, and both are trying to prevent people from fleeing. Kos wrote the Ukrainian artillery has increased its action and is doing a pretty good job! There are a lot of drones in the air with civilians tracking Russian troop movements and reporting that to the Ukrainian military. Kos describes a video of the artillery in action – a few test shots, a few more, than several direct hits. Kos also wrote about the Mariupol Theater. At the time of this post on Thursday morning 130 people had been rescued. Lauren Frayer of NPR discussed what various Ukrainian artists and musicians are doing now that their regular work has been disrupted. Singer Slava Vakarchuk, whose rock band Okean Elzy performed in stadiums now drives across the country delivering food and medicine. His fame gives him access and also provides comfort to others. After the annexation of Crimea he wrote the song “Not My War” as protest. He stopped doing concerts in Russia. His artistic work now is understanding where his hatred came from and how to get rid of its poisons. Stepan Burban, a rapper known as Palindrom, has a new piece that tells Russians to get out. “You're not even fit to be fertilizer on Ukrainian soil.” Lyana Mytsko, director of the Lviv Municipal Art Center has helped artists and evacuees create protest posters that are being posted across the country. The posters are both a rallying cry and therapy. Mytsko tells people art is not extra, not a sidebar. Putin has claimed Ukraine does not have a culture of its own. Mytsko’s crew are proving him wrong. Sumner asks: Though it is Ukraine being shelled, can Russia survive? Money that Russians invested for their future is gone. People, especially the best and brightest, are leaving while they can – destination anywhere out. The economy is done. Rapidly declining net worth means crushing poverty. It will be a long time before anyone invests in Russia again. And Putin is calling for “purification.”

It was already clear that Putin has a fetish for restoring the Soviet Union—a name that both Putin and his advisers have repeatedly used in recent weeks when describing the Russian Federation. What wasn’t clear is that Putin’s admiration of all things Soviet included the bread lines, famine, labor camps, and political purges.

The Kyiv Independent tweeted:

European Space Agency suspends cooperation with Russia on Mars rover mission. “While recognizing the impact on scientific exploration of space, ESA is fully aligned with the sanctions imposed on Russia by its Member States,” the agency wrote.

Sumner added:

Space was one of the few areas of technology where Russia has remained relevant in the post-Soviet era. But they’ve been running on momentum and decades old designs. They’ve offered reliability, but no innovation. Now that they’ve undercut that reliability, there’s no reason for anyone to pretend that Russia is still making significant contributions in space.

Kos discussed an important development. Russia had taken Kherson, just outside Crimea. The route from there to Odesa is blocked by a big river, so Russia went upstream to Mykolaiv, where there are bridges, and started a siege. More accurately, they got stopped and started shelling the city and creating mass civilian murder. The news now is that Ukraine forces have pushed the Russians back to the little town of Pesad-Pokrovskote, which is halfway between Mykolaiv and Kherson. Sumner discussed the drones Ukraine has been using to great effect. There is also a Switchblade drone system coming to Ukraine, which will be a big help in taking out the artillery systems that are doing so much damage to cities. That’s good news for Ukraine and democracy, though we should be thinking about what happens when the “semi” comes out of “semi-autonomous” drones. Italy’s Cabinet of Ministers has approved a proposal to offer Ukraine the resources to rebuild the Mariupol Theater. Theaters belong to the whole humanity. Zelenskyy tweeted his thanks. Oligarch Vladimir Strzhalkovsky isn’t on the list of sanctioned Russians. That doesn’t mean people are glad to see him. His super yacht “Ragnar” is stranded in Norway because the locals refuse to refuel it. Sven Holmlund said, “Why should we help them? They can row home. Or use a sail.” Or enjoy the long Norwegian summer days. Kos discussed estimates of how many tanks Russia sent into Ukraine, how many are likely still operational, and how many have sufficient personnel to operate them. A Russian battle group has about 600-800 soldiers to operate 10 tanks and 40 infantry fighting vehicles. But when 10% of the soldiers and 30% of the vehicles are gone the battle group has to withdraw and reform with the remains of other battle groups. Which is happening. The Kyiv Independent tweeted the story of a six year old boy in the Sumy region, close to the border with Russia, who got a birthday gift of a toy drone. When the boy heard the military needed drones he donated his new gift. Putin held a rally in a Moscow stadium where 80,000 people were bused in to fill the place. He stood alone on a massive stage (so nobody could get close to him). His performance was similar to the rallies the nasty guy held here in America. Or to a Wrestlemania event. All of it aimed at the home audience.

Allowing one man with such power to inhabit an imaginary bubble world

We’re three weeks in? The Russian invasion of Ukraine happened three weeks ago today or tomorrow. I’m still reading Ukraine Updates at Daily Kos, though instead of trying to keep them in chronological order (though they may end up that way) I’ll just highlight points I think are important. Laura Clawson reported that Marina Ovsyannikova of Russian state television slid into view behind a reporter holding a sign condemning the war. It said “Don’t believe the propaganda. They’re lying to you here.” She was, of course, fired and arrested. For a while her lawyer didn’t know where she was, though a later picture shows her with her lawyer. In a video she created before her moment of fame she said she is now ashamed for the years of promoting Putin’s propaganda. An update says she was fined. Maybe the regime would rather ignore her rather than make an example of her. Greg Dworkin, in a pundit roundup for Kos, included a cartoon of the same sign being held behind Tucker Carlson of Fox News. Mark Sumner of Kos reported that Putin, in the face of losing, might be showing flexibility. Maybe he doesn’t need to replace the government of Ukraine. Sumner wrote:

[Scholar and journalist Samuel] Ramani emphasizes that it doesn’t matter nearly as much to Putin if this invasion is perceived as a failure by the West, as it does that it be perceived as a victory in Russia. “Even if Putin fails militarily in Ukraine, he has many means at his disposal to create a rally around the flag effect and preserve his legacy at home. We should be very careful about assuming that this war will weaken his regime, it might have the opposite effect.”

Sumner also wrote that in contrast to the Russian military supply lines, the Kyiv supply line is doing just fine. Shelves are better stocked than in unoccupied parts of Ukraine and much better stocked than stores in parts of Russia. The prime ministers of Poland, Slovenia, and Czech Republic were able to go to Kyiv by train without problems. They’re expected to discuss proposals on rebuilding after the invasion ends. Sumner included a tweet from the Kyiv Independent:

Russia announces leaving the Council of Europe, hours before its expected expulsion. It means that Russian citizens will not be able to bring cases to the European Court of Human Rights, and the Russian government can re-introduce the death penalty.

Russians are known for flaunting their wealth through eating caviar. But very little of that comes from Russia. They may find out what life without it is like. In a third post Sumner noted that Russia has made little to no military progress. He also included a tweet from Visegrád 24 that’s going to sting:

Speaking to media after meeting with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, Poland’s Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau stated there are discussions about Poland taking Russia’s seat in the G20. Founded in 1999, it consists of 19 of the world’s largest economies and the EU

And from Nexta TV:

The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees reports that 3 million people have left #Ukraine.

I’ve heard other reports say 3.5 million refugees. Kos of Kos did another overview. A surprise is there is no evidence of more military supplies coming from Russia. Exposed supply lines and there is no effort to resupply? There is only so much food they can pillage from locals. Two things getting a lot of discussion, but Kos disagrees. He says: Belarus won’t invade Ukraine. That dictator has told Putin no and his troops are even worse. There won’t be an amphibious assault on Odesa. The forces in ships in the Black Sea are far from enough to take the city. Those kinds of attacks need surprise and satellite images mean surprise is not possible. Kos labeled this high comedy: Oleg Matveychev of the Russian Parliament said his colleagues should think about demanding reparations for the cost of damage the sanctions are doing to Russia. He is also demanding a return of Alaska. Dartagnan of the Kos community discussed an article by Maxim Trudolyubov of Meduza, a Latvian news site that publishes in Russian and English. Dartagnan wrote the article...

makes a persuasive case that Putin is failing because he is irrevocably committed to his own fantasy-based worldview, one which crumbles and dissolves with the slightest degree of examination, and one which is failing now, in full view of the rest of the world.

Dartagnan added it is also quite similar to how the nasty guy treated COVID. Since that incompetence has been covered I’ll stick to what the Meduza article discusses. When Putin took over the government he purged government administrators, activists, politicians, and journalists who had an independent perspective. The removal usually included intimidation, force, or violence. They were replaced with people who would fabricate the facade of civic leadership. The government could only rubber-stamp what Putin wanted, and then propagandize it, and couldn’t perform any civic function. Dartagnan wrote:

Trudolyubov recognizes that the immense problem Russia now faces with its seemingly disastrous invasion of Ukraine is one borne of complacency, of those Russians with an independent voice not taking the complete dissolution of their public sphere seriously and allowing one man with such power to inhabit an imaginary bubble world of constant yes-men, unconstrained, allowing them to inhabit a fake world that now threatens not only to inflict immeasurable damage on Ukraine, but possibly the rest of the world (including Russia itself) as well.

And from Trudolyubov:

He not only believed in the reality he had bought, but he also made it the basis for action in the real world. Today, it is clear that his plan to conduct a short military operation in a “brotherly nation” was based on a fiction that he authored himself. Apparently, he expected that the use of force by a “real” state — that is, “his” state — would lead to the collapse of the “non-real” state of Ukraine.