Listen to the dissidents because they speak of what is to come

From a post on Monday Hunter of Daily Kos reported Ukrainian’s most reliable source of new armor is Russian supply lines. Even better than supplies from the West. A deputy commander sounded like his battalion does shopping trips. They come to a Russian supply column and shoot at the first vehicle. When it explodes the Russian soldiers flee. And the Ukrainians get all this nice equipment. Yeah, it’s old. But quite reliable. As for the equipment Russia sends to Belarus by train for use in taking Kyiv, well, the Belarusian railway workers are sabotaging the trains or tracks. Kos of Kos did updates by battlefronts. In the one for the front around Kyiv Kos wrote the Ukrainians are doing a good job of pushing back the Russians who are northwest of the city. Kos also showed images of FIRMS, NASA’s public satellite service that tracks forest fires. It is also good at tracking fires from war, which helps track military front lines. There is a lot of action along the western flank of those northwestern Russian troops. In Hunter’s update from Monday noon, there is a tweet from Nexta TV with a report that Russia’s only tank manufacturer has stopped production because of a lack of parts. Kos wrote about the status of the front in the South. Ukrainians appear to be pushing Russia back from Mykolaiv to close to Kherson. Still too soon if Ukraine plans to liberate Kherson. Kos referenced a report by CNN to say Russian troops around Kherson are afraid to retreat because anyone falling back is shot. Then he noted a naval officer was killed on land. A look at this officer’s job description prompted this from Kos:

OMG. This was a guy in charge of other guys whose job it is to shoot battlefield deserters and anyone retreating. I’m going to guess he got fragged. Why else would a high-ranking naval officer be anywhere siege fighting? So if these ghouls are really in Kherson, and why wouldn’t they be, Russian rank-and-file troops may need to clean some house internally before they can surrender. Whatever minimizes the bloodshed, let’s hope that’s what happens.

In a Tuesday morning report Mark Sumner of Kos noted some things that aren’t happening. No amphibious assaults on Odessa. No troops from Belarus (though some fighting for Ukraine), no troops from Syria. Russia isn’t winning, isn’t capable of winning. So why would Belarus and Syria want to support a loser? And that will create a lot of instability in countries within Putin’s sphere of influence. Visegrád 24 tweeted an image of someone holding a sign with the words:

Russian troop pronouns are Were/Was

Pundits have been saying that it doesn’t matter if Russia loses in the short term. It will win in the long term simply because Ukraine will run out of bodies before Russia will. Sumner took on that debate. There’s more costs to a war beyond bodies. And with bodies coming home there is a limit to what the citizens will tolerate – even in Russia. Besides, the idea that one side has more bodies to throw at the problem hasn’t helped the US win any of its conflicts in the last 60 years. A few days ago I wrote about a video that Arnold Schwarzenegger created so he could speak to the Russian people. The question was whether the video would get past Russian internet blocks. Walter Einenkel of Kos reported that Arnold must have gotten through and enough people viewed it that Russia felt the need to condemn it. That task went to powerlifting champion Maryana Naumova. She said Arnold was being hypocritical – but didn’t address Arnold’s issue. Kos discussed what might happen if Ukraine is able to encircle Russian troops. He shared the story of the sole member of a Russian tank crew who was persuaded to turn over his tank in exchange for $10K and Ukrainian citizenship. See above about retreating soldiers as to why this would be a great deal. Igor Kossov of the Kyiv Independent wrote a day in the life story:

For weeks, Oleksandr and his friend Andrii have been driving into the war zones outside Kyiv, running critical supplies in and getting people out. Oleksandr reckons they’ve evacuated over 250 civilians and I believe it. In the one day I spent with them, they evacuated seven. They also help deliver power banks, food and medicine, help rescue left-behind pets or, when it’s too late to save someone, bring out bodies to get a proper burial in Kyiv and hopefully serve as evidence in some future court of human rights against Russia. “When people sit for over a week without light, internet or news, they come out and ask us ‘is Kyiv still ours?’” Oleksandr says. “We reassure them, yes, Kyiv is ours, everything is good there, look, we brought you some bread.” Today, they let me tag along on one of their daily missions. While Oleksandr gave me permission to share, I’ve kept both their last names hidden for security purposes, as they don’t plan to stop sticking their necks out any time soon.

Kossov then described the adventures of the day. Dartagnan of the Kos community wrote about how Putin came to power. Back in 1999 the Russian leadership, including Boris Yeltsin, were seen as highly corrupt and Yeltsin was hitting the bottle. His “Unity” movement was heading for defeat in elections. How might they rally the people to his side? The best way is, of course, a national emergency. They increased tensions with Chechnya, which lashed out. But that didn’t affect public opinion. They needed more violence. So there were bombings of apartment buildings in Moscow, Buinaksk, and Volgodonsk. The bombings were blamed on Chechen terrorists. Yeltsin resigned at the end of 1999 and Putin became acting president. He was formally elected in March 2000. He campaigned on (and acted on) seeking revenge on Chechnya. His approval rating went from 31% in mid August to 78% in November. There is strong evidence that the bombs at the apartment buildings were set by the FSB, the successor of the KGB – of which Putin was the head. Of course, there were denials. But Putin would not be where he is now without those bombings. His reign quite likely began with violence. Dartagnan wonders when the US intelligence community will open its files on these bombings. Garry Kasparov wrote Winter is Coming. Mig Greengard tweeted the last paragraph:

My last policy recommendation is to listen to the dissidents, even if you do not like what they have to say. They are the ones who reveal to us the dark realities of our societies, the realities that most of us have the luxury to turn away from. Listen to the dissidents because they warn us of the threats that target minorities first and inevitably spread to the majority. Every society has its dissidents, not just dictatorships. They speak for the disenfranchised, the ignored, and the persecuted. Listen to them now, because they speak of what is to come.

On to other things. Greg Dworkin, in a pundit roundup for Kos, quoted Jessica Grose of the New York Times who discussed a Gallup poll of school satisfaction (I added emphasis):

“73 percent of parents of school-aged children say they are satisfied with the quality of education their oldest child is receiving.” More parents were satisfied in 2021 than they were in 2013 and 2002, when satisfaction dipped into the 60s, and in 2019, we were at a high point in satisfaction — 82 percent — before the Covid pandemic dealt schools a major blow. Digging deeper into the Gallup numbers revealed that the people who seem to be driving the negative feelings toward American schools do not have children attending them: Overall, only 46 percent of Americans are satisfied with schools.

73% of parents like our schools. That drops to 46% of all Americans like our schools. Which means the ones who don’t like our schools, who don’t have children in these schools, are a pretty large and noisy group. To me that means they’re getting serious funding from rich people like Betsy DeVos who want to destroy education for everyone who can’t afford it on their paycheck. Einenkel reported that on March 9, the Kingsland Branch Library in Llano County, Texas fired librarian Suzette Baker. The reason was she did not comply with directives to remove certain books from the shelves. She was cited for “creating a disturbance, insubordination, violation of policies and failure to follow instructions.” Einenkel wrote:

Suzette Baker, however, has become one of the first people to have her right to work taken away because of true governmental censorship. Not unlike our public schools, public libraries are some of the most important institutions for nurturing a healthy, democratic society. I can and will argue that the public library system is the single most important institution in our democracy in that anyone, of any background, of any economic situation, can access any and all information—both analog and digital—for free at their public library. It is no coincidence that the more conservative and fascistic elements our country have tried to crush public libraries for many years.

Bill in Portland, Maine, in a Cheers and Jeers column for Kos, included a video from Science & Nature showing a zero G race between Usain Bolt and a couple astronauts.