Creating the world's biggest network of snitches

In a Ukraine Update from early yesterday afternoon Mark Sumner of Daily Kos wrote about the fiscal impact of the Russian war in Ukraine is having on the rest of the world. Part of that depends on how much a country depends on Russian oil or Russian or Ukrainian wheat. Then there is the cost within Russia. Individual life savings has lost a third of its value and losing about 10% a day with a big inflation spike coming. Sanctions are working. Russia is already closest to the poorest nation in Europe and it’s people are going from poor to grindingly impoverished. Which means Putin already thinks of this as WWIII. And we had better start looking for off ramps.

Zelenskyy knows that an end to this — and end that doesn’t involve everyone calculating how many strontium isotopes are in their food for the next three generations — has to be one that doesn’t leave Russia, and specifically Putin, so humiliated that they feel like their being constantly kicked and laughed at by the rest of the word. What that deal looks like exactly isn’t clear. But someone better work it out before Putin decides that a few tactical nukes aren’t just the message he needs to get people to back down from those sanctions.

Astronaut Scott Kelly set a record for the longest stay in the International Space Station. During training and while in space he worked with a lot of Russians (so what is the conversation like up there these days?). I read Kelly’s autobiography and quite enjoyed it. Yesterday Kelly tweeted this:

Mr. Medvedev, I am returning to you the Russian medal “For Merit in Space Exploration,” which you presented to me. Please give it to a Russian mother whose son died in this unjust war. I will mail the medal to the Russian embassy in Washington. Good luck.

In a mid afternoon update Sumner reported that Russia has been cranking out propaganda that Ukraine is getting ready to frame Russia for a chemical weapon attack. Which is a sign that Russia is getting ready to use a chemical weapon on Ukraine. Considering all the other war crimes they’ve already committed ... Sumner quoted a bit from a Twitter thready by Michael Weiss:

Russia doesn't have the power to keep going like this for very long. Time isn't on their side, nor do they have a recipe for winning. They can't win hearts and minds, that's for sure.

In an early evening update Kos of Kos discussed again why a no-fly zone is a bad idea. The reasons: Planes can’t shoot down the missiles Russia is lobbing into Ukraine. A couple surface-to-air missile systems inside Russia can cover most of Ukraine and to take them out means flying into Russia and searching for mobile units. It is understandable that Ukraine is trying to drag NATO into the fight to share in the burden of fighting and dying. But a wider, perhaps nuclear, war must be avoided, though that is both callous and heartbreaking. In this morning’s update Kos wrote about the crashing Russian economy and how that is leading to a brain drain. Then he wrote:

This is what the “Putin has too much to lose to use nuclear weapons” crowd doesn’t get. COVID should have taught all of us to stop expecting people to behave rationally, and we have no idea what’s motivating Putin these days. Reclusive despots have a habit of losing their minds in disastrous ways. Remember, Putin invaded because he wanted the world to treat Russia as a WORLD POWER. Now, his army is limping against an inferior enemy, his Air Force is for the most part AWOL, he is an international pariah, and his economy faces years of contraction and pain. That’s some serious indignities, and we really don’t know how he’ll deal with it.

I’ve discussed laws in Texas and Florida that encourage people to sue teachers that mention race or sue people who help a woman have an abortion. In an update to the update Sumner, by quoting a tweet by Christo Grozev, said this is where that is going:

The FSB is recruiting a new form of online trolls: young people whose job is to scour comments under social media posts or news items for statements that might be considered "extremist" or "seditious". Starting salary is $500. Creating the world's biggest network of snitches.

The FSB is a successor to the Soviet KGB. Sumner wrote that the situation in Russia is creating a flood of Russian refugees. These are the ones with enough wealth and Western contacts to afford to get out.

What's going to be left behind in Russia are 145 million deeply impoverished, disillusioned, desperate, and powerfully angry people. But there is absolutely no guarantee that they'll turn that anger toward it's author. Putin already has long experience in manipulating the Russian people, even as other members of the Warsaw Pact, and even other former Soviet Republicans, sharply outpaced Russian development. If Russia is reduced to a snarl of boiling anger on Europe’s flank, Putin may still be steering that anger.

The number of apartments for sale in Crimea has jumped a lot. Liubov Tsybulska says the apartments are owned by FSB and the Crimea occupation administration. Good chance the sales will fund tickets out of the country. Yesterday I briefly mentioned that Russia had shelled a maternity hospital in Mariupol. The attack was mentioned in a few news reports today. Leah McElrath tweeted a bit of context:

In July 2016, Russia bombed a maternity hospital in Idlib, Syria: “Babies were hurt when incubators crashed to the floor, a pregnant woman lost a leg and two others suffered shrapnel wounds” In May 2019, Russia bombed another maternity and children’s hospital in Idlib, Syria: “The air strikes completely destroyed the facility, which had served about 6,000 people a month”

Those various news reports have also been saying the number of refugees from Ukraine has topped two million. On to something else: Marissa Higgins of Kos reported that six years ago the Briggle family of Dallas, Texas invited Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton to have dinner with the family. At the time there were proposals to ban transgender students from using the bathroom that matches their gender identity. The Briggles wanted Paxton to meet their transgender son to hopefully soften his position. Didn’t work. Recently Paxton wrote an opinion that providing gender-affirming health care for trans youth is child abuse. And yes, that violates the standards of major medical groups. Though this is a document from the AG it has no legal weight. Then Gov. Greg Abbott directed state agencies to abide by that opinion. And yes, that’s cruel. Now the Briggles are under investigation for child abuse and could lose custody of their children. They aren’t the only ones being investigated by the Department of Family and Protective Services. They’re also investigating one of their investigators who has a trans child. It is alarming that families and brave trans youth who have been activists are now targets. Higgins concluded:

Next time Republicans stir hysteria about little kids playing sports, remember that what they’re really trying to do is get the public comfortable with the idea that trans people are somehow different, and therefore, discrimination is “okay.”

No. Discrimination is never okay, no matter how different someone is.