Until the doves believe the hawk has crossed one line too many

A couple days ago I wrote about a thread by Kamil Galeev. The next morning I got an email from Brother with a long article by annieli for Daily Kos Kremlin Annex, which descries itself as a never-ending protest of the nasty guy’s capitulation to Putin. The second half of that post discusses another thread by Galeev. The first half of annieli’s post is a more detailed version of the Ukraine Updates I’ve been reading these past three weeks. This update included a call for the UN to establish a peacekeeping force in Ukraine. Also, a status of the fighting. That is followed by several analyses of the war and what might happen in the future. And this little tweet from Jacobin Magazine:

Around one-third of Russians have relatives in Ukraine. No amount of censorship can prevent the millions of phone calls and messages between them.

On to the thread by Galeev. Putin has triggered a “small victorious war.” This phrase isn’t explained and appears to be used with a lot of irony. I say it that way because Galeev shows that “small victorious wars” frequently brought about regime change in Russia. The Soviet Union left Afghanistan in 1989 and the USSR fell in 1991. There was the Russo – Japanese War followed by the end of the Russian Empire. In the late 17th century Sofya was regent for her brothers Ivan and Peter. Sofya’s lover, Prince Golitsyn, tried to take Crimea, twice. Soon after that Muscovy ended and the Russian Empire emerged, under the rule of Peter. Galeev then discussed the problem of subordinates who don’t want to tell the tyrant there is bad news or even evidence to the contrary of what the tyrant has already decided. So the Russian FSB is caught in what to tell Putin. Some FSB agents are already under house arrest. The next topic by Galeev is a discussion of Russian ideology. The major points: * Russia saved the world from Nazis in WWII. But please ignore that Stalin was buddies with Hitler before Hitler invaded the USSR. Also ignore all the effort the Allies did on the Western Front. * Therefore Russia is stronger than anyone and can absolutely repeat the WWII success. * That has come to mean anyone, inside or out of Russia, who objects to what the leader is doing now is a Nazi. One is either Russian, in full support of the regime, or a Nazi. That explains why the invasion of Ukraine is described as “deNazification.” Galeev and annieli show several photos of a Russian national celebration which includes both a lot of children and a lot of militaristic propaganda. This is the time to take Putin out (though I’m not sure if Galeev is saying the West should do it or Russians should). That’s because Putin has been following a strategy:

1. Manufacture crisis 2. Get concessions and roll back 3. Increase your standing in the country, become stronger 4. Scale up and repeat It's not gonna end now Consider sizes of countries where Putin waged his wars in chronological order: 1. Chechnya, 1999 - 1 million 2. Georgia, 2009 - 4 million 3. Syria, 2015 - 17 million 4. Ukraine, 2022 - 44 million

So if Putin lasts through this he will be stronger. Then Galeev related that to game theory and how it worked for both Hitler and Putin. If one is consistently hawkish he will win when up against those who deescalate and are dovish. The doves believe they are the “voice of reason” and back down to preserve peace. The hawk wins and becomes stronger. The more the doves project dove behavior the more rational it is for the hawk to scale up. See Chamberlain and Hitler. And the West and Putin. That happens until the doves believe the hawk has crossed one line too many and don’t back down. That’s usually a surprise to the hawk. This sounds similar to a description of tyrant that I believe came from Sarah Kendzior. A tyrant will make a move to suppress a group. He’ll look around for a reaction. If there is no meaningful pushback – there must be more than verbal scolding – the tyrant will make another move and look for reaction. Each time the move is stronger, more oppressive. This continues until there is meaningful pushback.