The best way to hurt Russia is to boost renewable energy production

Trying to catch up on my Ukraine Updates: NPR host Leila Fadel spoke to Mariana Budjeryn who is Ukrainian and a nuclear expert at Harvard’s Belfer Center. This was after Russian forces took control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and the decommissioned Chernobyl plant, and were advancing on another. Some of what they talked about: About 50% of Ukraine’s energy mix is from nuclear power. Controlling the power is one way to control the country. Power plants are not designed to withstand war. They are designed to withstand previous plant accidents. A nuclear event is a worldwide event. Budjeryn said:

Putin cannot be seen as losing to Ukraine. That would be a terrible thing for him - to be seen as losing to someone like Ukrainians whom he looks like, by all indications, looks like he despises. In that case - and I swear I would not even contemplate something like that eight days ago, but now it does not sound so inconceivable. In that case, I wonder if he might resort to use of a tactical - of a small nuclear weapon to shock Ukraine on Ukrainian territory somewhere - and the target would be secondary - to shock Ukraine into surrender.

These days “small” is what took out Hiroshima, a city size bomb. Another possible use is to explode the bomb well above the city. That would leave it standing, but the electromagnetic pulse would knock out everything electric and electronic. I had commented about two maps of how far Russia had penetrated into Ukraine. One shows occupied areas, the other shows only the roads Russia controls. Kos of Daily Kos wrote a Tuesday morning post that shows both maps. He then explained both are incomplete. The one showing the occupying areas shows the Ukrainian army has been pushed back, but Russia isn’t really occupying the area behind the front. The one showing the occupied roads shows how exposed the Russian supply lines are and how vulnerable those lines are to Ukrainian raids. The territorial defense forces are very much still operational. But they can’t be resupplied. In a post from mid morning on Tuesday Mark Sumner of Kos discussed a bleak prediction by Christopher Chivvis of The Guardian. Putin is “unlikely to settle for anything less than the complete subjugation of the Ukrainian government,” as Chivvis put it, and install a puppet over an obliterated Ukraine. The puppet signs a document making Ukraine a Russian province. If, at that time, NATO keeps supplying the Ukraine fighters that will likely escalate into a war between NATO and Russia. That escalation leads eventually to the nuclear threshold. That means Russia begins to use tactical nukes while holding the threat of full on nuclear war against anyone who strikes back. Sumner wrote that the analysis that Chivvis laid out doesn’t consider Russia under sanctions serious enough to impact Russia’s ability to sustain combat. At noon Tuesday Rebekah Sager of Kos discussed how extensive Putin’s propaganda war is. That includes how much that propaganda machine loves Fox News. In a post from early Tuesday afternoon Mark Sumner of Kos discussed a twitter thread from Mike Jason, a retired Army Colonel and current historian. That thread was about the cost of this war to the US. First, the cost is worth it – the world is trying to choke off an aggressive fascist state without starting WWIII. Sanctions and high gas prices are better than a shooting war between NATO and Russia. This isn’t a time to be smug about your Tesla. We’re in this together. If we’re not careful we’ll also pay through widening divisions in the US. Speaking of divisions... Tuesday morning Biden announced a ban on importing oil from Russia. Laura Clawson of Kos reported:

“Republicans and Democrats alike” understand that cutting off Russian energy imports will have a financial cost, Biden noted, and “Republicans and Democrats alike have been clear that we must do this.” What every political observer knows, though, is that Republican calls to ban Russian energy imports will not stop those very same Republicans from attacking Biden over high gas prices. Low-level common decency would suggest that if you demand a specific course of action from a political opponent, you don’t then attack them for the foreseeable consequences of doing what you demanded. That’s not how Republicans operate, to say the least. ... Really the question is whether you think cutting off Russian energy imports is the right thing to do in response to Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. If it is the right thing to do, then the outcome of doing it shouldn’t be used for partisan advantage. And the fact that Republicans are going to use it that way despite claiming to think it’s the right thing to do is one more thing that should totally discredit them and their claims about how things are going in the U.S. economy and politics.

This is only the latest step in the Republicans trying to use the war in Ukraine to push on behalf of the US oil industry. From a post last week, Nathan Rott of NPR reported much of the rhetoric around oil production is misleading. Regulations have already been loosened, there are thousands of drilling leases that haven’t been used yet, and Biden has been approving lots of drilling permits. All of what Republicans want will take months to make a difference in gas prices. And the best way to hurt Russia is to boost renewable energy production. Also from last week Clawson reported that Republicans are using the war to slow down the fight against climate change. Clawson concluded:

The way out of that is not to drill promiscuously right now, right up until every well runs dry and we’re left with no Plan B for energy in addition to the increasingly devastating effects of climate change. The way out is to decrease our reliance on fossil fuels right now, and build up our renewable energy infrastructure. But Republicans aren’t worried, because all they care about is political power, and they’re absolutely ready to try to turn the coming climate crisis—once it can no longer be ignored—into some new angle to seize more power.

Today Clawson reported that some news outlets are using headlines exposing the Republican strategy to blame Biden for high gas prices – while the actual stories are more about how this strategy will affect Democrats. There is very little about the Republican hypocrisy. With many countries avoiding Russian oil and gas prices way up there why aren’t other countries – like Saudi Arabia – pumping more oil? There are restrictions on oil from Iran and Venezuela because of what their governments have done. But the Saudis? Ken Klippenstein tweeted a link to his article in the Intercept, saying:

Saudi Arabia is working with Russia to drive up gas prices, worsening the Ukraine crisis. The partnership dates back to 2015 when MBS opted to meet with Putin after Obama declined to meet with him, sources tell me.

Meteor Blades of Kos explained more. Biden asked Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and UAE Sheikh Mohammed bin Sayed al Nahyan to increase production. But they’re unhappy with Biden’s policies. They want Biden to help them meddle in Yemen’s civil war, they want legal immunity for MBS from US lawsuits, including over the killing of Jaman Khashoggi, and they want help in a nuclear program to balance Iran’s program. Since Biden labeled Saudi Arabia a “pariah” state, they’re not likely to get what they want. And not likely to pump more oil. In an update late yesterday afternoon Sumner said this war is changing things. We won’t go back to the way things were. The attack and carnage won’t be forgotten in maybe even a decade. Two changes in the way we think are: If Puten uses tactical nukes on the battlefield the rest of the world will consider their use. But the scale of the sanctions on Russia may show there is no longer a benefit to a war of conquest. In a post from early Tuesday afternoon Hunter of Kos reported that McDonald’s has closed its locations in Russia, at least temporarily. That was announced hours after a Washington Post article complained that McDonald’s hadn’t done so yet. Shortly after that Starbucks and Coca-Cola announced they were pulling out. Hunter quoted a tweet by Bill Browder about a list, prepared by Yale, of companies that have pulled out of Russia – and a list of companies still doing business there. Hunter concluded:

The fight to push Russia out of Ukraine is one of authoritarianism versus democracy, and any corporate entity that can't be bothered to take a stand is not one that American consumers should be supporting in any capacity, either now or after the war ends. This is basic stuff, Our Betters. There's a limit to how much amorality and raw cronyism your pandemic-exhausted, insurrection-watching customers can stomach.

In an update from this morning Kos said again that Putin has no options left. He quoted a post he had written a week before the invasion about how this backed Putin into a corner. Kos mentioned a couple other things: There has been a mysterious lack of Russian cyberattacks against Ukraine or any other country. And Putin has said he won’t be calling up reservists. Since his propaganda machine has been declaring how well this is all going it is hard to say great! ... but we need a few hundred thousand more troops. Also, Putin is a known liar. Kos wrote:

There is no “off ramp” possible that would allow Putin to save face. Capitulation likely means death (or a trip to The Hague to face war crimes trial). He can’t stop now. He can only keep going, sowing death and destruction for a prize that is beyond his grasp. It’s been several weeks since I wrote that headline, and Putin is still backed into a corner. As to how much the world will have to pay? Ukraine’s price is unthinkable, and the economic consequences are just starting—for Russia, and for the rest of the world. And we can’t even guarantee that this won’t spread into a wider conflagration.

Kos included the report that IAEA officials have lost contact with the monitoring equipment at the decommissioned Chernobyl reactor. Ukraine authorities say the power has been cut and emergency generators are running with a limited supply of fuel. I wonder if this is the tactical nuke Russia might be considering. In a pundit roundup for Kos, Georgia Logothetis quoted Jonathan Chait of the New York Magazine. Chait’s article was about the relationship between Putin and the nasty guy. The latter had absorbed the former’s idea that Ukraine was corrupt and undeserving of sovereignty. Soon the ideas spouted by one were also spouted by the other. Chait included:

The element of Russian propaganda here is not the claim that corruption exists in Ukraine, which is true, but the premise that this somehow destroys its claim to sovereignty or justifies subjugation to its far more corrupt neighbor.

In today’s late morning update Sumner started by scolding those who think Russia will eventually win. Saying that while sending weapons to Ukraine is just horribly wrong. Sumner also mentioned: The strike of the Mariupol maternity hospital. The siege of Mariupol, which is a war crime happening now. A member of the EU Parliament who said one should watch which way the refugees are going – and they’re going to the EU, not Russia. Belorusian soldiers have shown up – to fight with Ukrainians. On to something else. Clawson reported in the great trucker convoy that made it to Washington and circled the capital beltway for a couple laps. They intended to drive at 40 mph and be a huge pain to regular traffic. But even normal Sunday beltway traffic the convoy couldn’t stay together and had little effect. Clawson wrote:

That said, nobody really knows what to expect from this unpredictable, nonsensical pack of assholes. They say they’re protesting until their demands are met, but they don't really have coherent demands. They say they’ve come to the nation’s capital, in some cases from across the country, to protest public health restrictions that were dropping well before they set out. Some of them are talking about high gas prices, while spending hundreds of dollars in gas to try to disrupt other people’s lives. Some flew Confederate battle flags, because of course they damn well did. There’s really no point here beyond the far right asserting its media-given right to attention. Bear in mind if and when you see descriptions of the people involved in this as somehow representing the working class that these are people who can take weeks and spend thousands of dollars on something that doesn’t even have a real set of demands.

David Neiwert added some details. He also added that the whole thing is another right-wing moneymaking scam. People donated to help the convoy, a claim that $1.5 million was raised. But into whose pocket did that money go? Did the truckers, the actual members of the convoy, see any of it? I had mentioned a bunch of countries had agreed to develop a treaty to end plastics pollution. April Siese of Kos has a bit more here. Joan McCarter of Kos discussed the confirmation process of Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court. Schumer has announced he wants a confirmation vote on April 11, just before the Easter recess. But Republicans are working on all sorts of delay tactics, using a variety of reasons, so that it doesn’t appear that the real reason is racism. They want a thorough review of her record, which is sterling. They wonder why the rush to confirm, forgetting their rush to get Amy Coney Barrett confirmed. They want Jackson to have a chance to sit down with every senator, which would also take a chunk of time.