It's not maxing efficiency, it's minimising the threat

In a Ukraine Update from noon Saturday Mark Sumner of Daily Kos wrote that a good part of the success of Ukraine is because of the steady stream of defensive weapons coming from other nations. Russia has issued statements that the resupply lines are legitimate targets for Russian attacks. I’ve heard that a few missiles have been lobbed towards those sorts of targets. Sumner wrote:

To some extent, Russia not attacking the supply chain, or escaping refugees, has been part of what has allowed Western nations to stay on the sidelines. Attacking those lines represents a risk to both sides.

In amongst Sumner’s inclusion of quotes from Twitter he wrote:

An interesting thread from historian Kamil Galeev on the actual role of the Russian military within Russia. Despite propaganda that presents Russia as powerful and modern, not only have they not fought a significant war in 70 years, they’re actually bullied inside Russia by “thieves” working within the kleptocracy who hold military supplies, and even bases, for ransom.

Sumner quoted a bit from Galeev’s thread:

Thieves racketeering the military, including Syria veterans, nuke personnel is not an “accident.” It's a deliberate government policy to keep professional military low in dominance hierarchy. Russian state purposefully keeps its military in this position. It's all part of a plan.

The phrase “dominance hierarchy” caught my attention. Tyrants like Putin spend a great deal of time making sure they are at the top of the hierarchy. They groom underlings beholden to them to be able to keep their position, but everyone understands who the top boss is. Weapons, especially guns, can enforce or flip a hierarchy. Military people have lots of weapons. Those at the top of the hierarchy want to make sure those weapons don’t get used against themselves. Therefor they want their military to be weak – except in a time of war. I also caught on that the Russian military hasn’t fought a significant war against an actual army in 70 years (WWII? – which was 77 years ago), though they did suppress civilian riots in Hungary in 1956 and Czechoslovakia in 1968). There were also wars in Chechnya and Afghanistan, but those were against guerrilla movements, not armies. I read through Galeev’s thread (and surprised Twitter let me). A few things it mentioned. The army, which fights wars outside the country, is beneath the state security, which protects the leadership. A war allows the generals to become popular (at least with their troops) and through that gain influence. So after a war generals, at least the best ones, are purged. Many are replaced by state security guys who have no military experience. There is also strong anti intellectualism, making them the least intellectual army in Europe.

Let's sum up. Kremlin is not maxing efficiency, it's minimising the threat. Recruit as low IQ officers as possible, give them very narrow training. If some officers are capable and rising quickly, kill them. Appoint as many state security to the army to make it more controllable.

The army gets no respect. Soldiers have no self respect. They can’t handle a close range fight. So the focus is on the artillery. In a Saturday early afternoon update Sumner discussed cyberwarfare. Russia is supposedly good at this but there has been little of it against Ukraine and the West. Yes, a million Ukrainians are without power, but that is due to bombardment, not hack. There is one group getting a great deal of cyberwarfare focus – Russian citizens. The goal is to sever them from the rest of the world and that seems to be doing quite well. In an early evening update Sumner included photos of the war. Only a couple show bodies. The rest show the human cost in other ways. Sumner also included a quote from a tweet by Visegrád 24:

Poland has taken 1 596 000 refugees from Ukraine since Russia launched an invasion. Nearly half of them are children.

NPR reported the total number of refugees is over 2½ million. To that tweet Sumner added:

Refugees from Syria ultimately generated a crisis that shifted political fortunes across Europe. The same thing is likely again, but we don’t know what shape it will take this time.

This morning Kos of Kos posted an update on where things stand now. Kyiv and the north: Russians are “regrouping” – meaning they’re unable to mount a serious attack. Kharkiv and Sumy in the mortheast: The map hasn’t changed. Russia is pulling troops away from Kyiv and Kharkiv to protect its supply lines. They don’t have the ability to win in the battlefield, so are using terror to hope Ukraine will submit. The east:

Mariupol, on the far southeastern corner of Ukraine, is surrounded, under massive bombardment, running out of food, no electricity, and it’s still holding on. Russia did make a move on the city’s western edge.

And the attack was repelled. The south: No progress over the last day, so Mykolayiv is being bombarded. Last evening I watched the streaming of a concert by the Detroit Symphony Orchestra. The program included music by William Grant Still (a black composer) and Samuel Barber (a white composer). The concerto was by George Gershwin (also white) with black pianist Aaron Diehl delightfully straying from what Gershwin wrote. There was one more piece, a new one – To Awaken the Sleeper by Joel Thompson, a black composer. This piece features a narrator, who was George Shirley, one of the first black tenors invited to sing at the Metropolitan Opera. The text is taken from Notes of a Native Son which is a book of essays by black (and gay) James Baldwin. I wish I had access to the script, because Shirley spoke some powerful words. I noted a few, though can’t quote them exactly: If you want to know if there is justice in the land don’t ask the rich and powerful. Ask those in poverty. To know what a place is like go to the unprotected and ask. Then listen. The concert will be posted on the DSO website soon, though one might have to be a member to listen.