The destruction is so massive, the evisceration so complete

Mark Sumner of Daily Kos wrote about the Russian – Ukraine peace negotiations in Istanbul. Don’t expect much. The first issue was “de-Nazification.” But since Putin’s forces haven’t been able to “scare, assassinate, or capture Zelenskyy” Russia doesn’t care about that issue anymore. Then there was demilitarization, that Ukraine not join NATO. Well, OK. There are other ways to create mutual defense treaties. So that one is rather pointless. Then the issue that actually matters. The now stated reason for the invasion was to “protect” the “breakaway republics” of Donetsk and Luhansk. It appears Russia is trying to expand its control (and absorption) to include all the land between Donbas and Crimea (and extend it west to Odesa if it can).

This is the one demand that Russia actually cares about. It also happens to be the one demand that Ukraine absolutely will not give them. Because Zelenskyy, and everyone else in Ukraine, recognizes that ceding a single acre of land to Russia for this unprovoked invasion would be seen as a betrayal. ... Russia wants Ukraine to agree to not just recognizing the land it stole in 2014, but expanding on that theft. Ukraine will not agree. Which makes it very likely that another phase of this war is coming soon, one in which both Russia and Ukraine shift more forces to the south. None of that is likely to change so long as Putin believes he can bludgeon Ukraine into accepting peace at any price.

Even though Sumner says Russia doesn’t really care about the first two issues, I’ve since heard Russia is still quite willing to use them to stall the peace talks. Kos of Kos quoted a tweet from Iuliia Mendel:

According to @bellingcat the Russian FSB paid billions of $ to ensure that some shadowy political class in Ukraine supported this war & created an internal coup d'état immediately after the invasion. But Ukrainian agents who took the money ditched them. They just screwed them over.

Kos reported one likely target of a bribe was Odesa Mayor Gennadiy Trukhanov who has a reputation of a corrupt gangster with the law closing in. Russia could offer immunity. Instead Trukhanov vowed to fight and Odesa is not in Russian hand. Kherson is. It is the only major city to fall to Russia. Was it stupidity or betrayal? Perhaps both? The city could have been protected by blowing up certain bridges – but they weren’t. The Governor resigned and fled – was that south into Crimea to collect a bribe? The city’s defense forces were not well trained and volunteers were left waiting. Ukraine is glad other mayors and governors felt sufficiently Ukrainian to not accept Russia’s offer. Kos told the story of Russia’s 4th Guards Tank Division. This is the elite of the Russian military. It was successfully used in several territory skirmishes. In comparison to a lot of other Russian military units this one was actually maintained for battle readiness. They were the best funded and had the latest generation of armor. They were deployed between Sumy and Kharkiv, getting quite a ways into Ukraine. And – in the big news over the weekend – Ukrainian forces repelled them. So much equipment – at least a third of the tanks – was destroyed that the 4th GTD retreated back across the border. Kos wrote:

The scope of 4th GTD’s destruction is so massive, the evisceration so complete, that you’d think Ukraine massed a considerable force to take it out. Yet no details have been forthcoming. Ukrainian General Staff doesn’t seem to be in any hurry to detail its successful strategies to Russian generals. ... I’m certainly eager to learn how these scrappy Ukrainians pulled off a coup of this magnitude, Postscript: The commander of one of the division’s regiments reportedly died of suicide when it was discovered that only one in 10 of its tanks in deep storage were usable. Many had engines missing. You know, for dachas and vodka. So much for resupply. Meanwhile, the commander of Russia’s 1st Tank Army, of which the 4th GTD was part of, was relieved of his command.

Aldous Pennyfarthing of the Kos community reported that Russian troops, as part of their efforts to de-Nazify Ukraine damaged a second Holocaust memorial. This one is Drobytsky Yar, a memorial dedicated to 15,000 Jews shot and put in mass graves by Nazis during WWII. Pennyfarthing wrote:

Wait, by “de-Nazifying,” did Putin mean erasing any evidence that the Nazis were ever in Ukraine? Or does he just want to supplant faint memories of Nazi atrocities with all-new ones starring Russia and its bumblef--- blitz?

Hunter of Kos reported that Russia has announced tactical retreats of forces near Kyiv. Since Ukraine is pushing those forces back this is a way of Russia to say we’re leaving but not because we’re getting our asses whupped. Kos discussed what that tactical retreat might really mean. Some options: Hold the current line by replacing their best soldiers with conscripts. But that would make it easier for Ukraine to push them back further. Pull back to a more defensible line. Go back far enough and Ukraine has little reason to go after them. Ukraine has more important things to do, such as break the siege of Chernihiv. Retreat all the way back to Belarus. But this area of Ukraine is so sparsely populated (Chernobyl is in this region) the Ukrainian forces won’t bother. Stay where they are. All this talk of retreat might be a play to international audiences. Besides, their logistics may be so messed up they can’t get the troops out while exposing their backs to Ukrainian forces. Another thread from Kamil Galeev. He first says Putin is not like the Soviet Politburo. That body actually discussed things and had to sort through opposing opinions. Putin listens only to Putin. Then Galeev discussed a gambit authoritarians use. They bet the country on some outrageous and irrational adventure. His minions doubt his judgment and consider removing him from power. But the bet pays off. The tyrant is seen as a genius who was right all along. His domestic power grows. His minions are willing to follow him anywhere because that’s the smart thing to do. Hitler made that bet when invading Czechoslovakia. And a key reason why that bet worked was because Neville Chamberlain of Britain chose appeasement to maintain peace. That peace meant Hitler gained power withing Germany. He made a bet and won. And now Russia has bet his country on being able to snatch at least a little bit of territory from Ukraine. That really is a bet on the whole country with sanctions doing significant damage. The country is in deep crisis. The birth rate is down so the population is shrinking. And his army is getting its butt kicked (not that anyone is telling Putin that). Putin could still win (which is not the same as Russia winning) through being able to hold onto a piece of Ukraine and by getting the rest of the world to lift sanctions too soon. He would be seen as a genius and the bet worthwhile. Hunter reported the nasty guy praised Putin again saying the invasion of Ukraine looked like a great negotiation that didn’t work out too well. Yeah, leveling Ukrainian cities was all part of nothing worse than a business deal that didn’t work out. Sumner discussed Russia’s super weapons – that have been missing from the battlefield. There are supposedly hypersonic missiles. Russia has fired two. There is a “Felon” fighter jet. Russia has four production planes and seems unwilling to risk them over Ukraine. There is a great tank with multiple missile launchers and a sophisticated armor system. It was shown off in the 2018 Victory Parade, though one had to be towed away (Breakdown? Too complicated for the driver to operate?). The number produced so far for actual use in battle: zero. The super weapons are super rare. That leaves the army having to use the vintage stuff. As for that vintage stuff. Russia theoretically has 4,000 T-80 tanks. About 480 of them are active (and the 310 on Ukraine roads – and mud – don’t look all that great). The rest of them are “in storage.” Is that a euphemism for inoperable or already sold for scrap metal? Kos has been discussing the huge problems the Russian military continues to have with logistics, with keeping its troops supplied. But even with great supply lines Kos says Russia would still be losing. As evidence Kos points to Kharkiv. Russia hasn’t taken it, or even surrounded it. And that’s a city only 16 miles from the Russian border – and only 50 miles from Belgorod, which is home to several large large army units. Keeping an army supplied while it is only 50 miles from base should be easy. So not being able to take Kharkiv isn’t (or shouldn’t be) a logistics problem. Instead it is a sign that the army in general is incompetent. In a report from this morning Kos discussed all the military defeats Russia suffered yesterday. Kos described it as Russia’s worst day yet. Sara R of Kos gathered together tweets from Victor Kovalenko and others reporting that seven buses of Russian soldiers suffering from Acute Radiation Syndrome arrived in Belarus. These are troops that had taken over the Chernobyl site. Their armored vehicles had stirred up radioactive dust. Radiation levels at the site have shown an increase since the second day of the invasion. Laura Clawson of Kos reported on Sen. Joe Manchin. Remember him? He hasn’t been in the news much lately because he hasn’t had much to obstruct. Clawson wrote about him because the New York Times has revealed another level of Manchin’s corruption. Back in 1987 when Manchin was a state senator he helped get the Grant Town power plant started. This plant used waste coal, which Manchin’s business supplied. Waste coal is dirtier and more expensive than regular coal. It is so dirty that Manchin needed to use his influence to get EPA permits.

“Since 2016, Grant Town has cost Mon Power $117 million more than it would have spent to buy that power from other sources, according to documents filed last year with the Public Service Commission,” the Times reports. “The utility had little choice but to buy the electricity; its contract with Grant Town doesn’t expire until 2036.” So the Grant Town power plant is causing pollution above the average coal-burning plant. It’s costing West Virginia utility customers extra money. But it’s funneling $500,000 a year into Joe Manchin’s pockets.

Joan McCarter of Kos reported that Manchin is getting back into his obstructionist ways through comments on Biden’s budget for 2023. Many of these comments are of the form of “people said” which gives Manchin a veneer of deniability. Another batch are of the form of sure I believe in taxing the rich – just not that method of taxing the rich. Maybe it is time to launch an ethics investigation. This seems appropriate after a discussion of dirty coal. April Siese of Kos discussed a recent study marking the 60th anniversary of the passage of the Clean Water Act. The report examined a long list of rivers, streams, creeks, lakes, ponds, bays, estuaries, and harbors. More than half are “impaired with pollution” which means the don’t “meet standards for swimming and recreation, aquatic life, fish consumption, or as drinking water sources.” And not all waterways have been examined because some states don’t provide (and maybe don’t have) their data. Siese also reported on the annual “Banking on Climate Chaos” report that was released this week. This documents the financial institutions that continue to buy into (make money off of) fossil fuels since the Paris Agreement of six years ago. JPMorgan Chase is at the top of the list with more than $382 billion invested in fossil fuels since 2018. The top four spots, representing a quarter of fossil fuel financing, are all American. That’s even though none are in the top five in total assets. JPMorgan Chase is also criticized for investing in Russian oil giant Gazprom, investing $1.1 billion in just 2021. These financial institutions are complicit in undermining a climate stable future. Siese also reported that Big Oil has jumped into cryptocurrencies. Currencies such as Bitcoin need huge amounts of electricity for their “mining” operations – to crunch the complex math equations that underlay the way these currencies work. Oil companies find they can capture some of the methane they normally leak or flare and turn it over to generate electricity for the crypto mining operations. Yes, capturing the methane and burning it is better for the environment than simply releasing it. Better yet would be to leave it in the ground and for oil companies to make profits on a different kind of business.